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9958

世紀鋼 Iron & Steel As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 世紀鋼 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 60Quality 87Growth 73Momentum 9Chips 7

Is 世紀鋼 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~92% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.5%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 25th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 14th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -6.8% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 29.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.32
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 元大-中壢 holds 1,105 lots
  • sellers have 558 lots left, ~45 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -20% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-中壢 has accumulated 1,105 lots since the start (sold 14%), holding.
  • Main distributor 群益金鼎 peaked at 771 lots, has sold 47%, 412 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -3.12pp, mid holders -15, retail +4.31pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -6,693 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-中壢第一金-桃園港商麥格理富邦-台中元大-板橋國泰-敦南
Distributing
群益金鼎花旗環球元大-蘆洲中正華南永昌凱基-埔墘凱基-新豐
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利凱基-台北新加坡商瑞銀美商高盛
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-中壢 +1,105
    sold 14%
  • 第一金-桃園 +586
    sold 0%
  • 港商麥格理 +560
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-台中 +301
    sold 21%· still adding
  • 元大-板橋 +274
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +229
    sold 19%· still adding

Distributing

  • 群益金鼎 412 left
    sold 47%· paused recently
  • 花旗環球 212 left
    sold 37%· ~17 sessions to clear
  • 元大-蘆洲中正 83 left
    sold 59%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌 103 left
    sold 45%· ~45 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-埔墘 37 left
    sold 79%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-新豐 91 left
    sold 41%· ~14 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -3,481
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-台北 -2,483
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -1,804
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美商高盛 -1,451
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 558 lots ~45 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +3,192 absorbed / -553 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -4,143 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 28.97%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

95 historical occurrences (since 2008-03-12)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 47.2%, Sample 89, Median -0.2%, Excess -0.18%, Beat mkt rate 42.7%；60-day: Win 49.4%, Sample 87, Median 0%, Excess -0.28%, Beat mkt rate 42.5%；120-day: Win 53.5%, Sample 86, Median +3.19%, Excess +3.26%, Beat mkt rate 48.8%

120 days after: historical avg +12.45%

20-day +1.44%
60-day +4.82%
120-day +12.45%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.2%
49.4%
53.5%
Sample
89
87
86
Median
-0.2%
0%
+3.19%
Excess
-0.18%
-0.28%
+3.26%
Beat mkt rate
42.7%
42.5%
48.8%

Over 86 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.45%, beat the market by 3.26 pts; win rate 53.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here339+0.6% -1.6% 43.7% -17%
20-40 889+32.1% -1.1% 49% +16.2%
40-60 706+90.4% +3.7% 55.9% +72.1%
60-80 323+54.5% +10.7% 64.1% +34.6%
80-100 676+74.9% +21.2% 87.1% +61.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 14.86, at the 14.0th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+2.3%
Win rate 45.2% Excess -5.2%
518d
+13.3%
Win rate 38.3% Excess -0.5%
590d
+71.7%
Win rate 78.4% Excess +65.1%
633d
60-day momentum down
Now
+4.2%
Win rate 51.6% Excess -1.4%
595d
+6.5%
Win rate 48.2% Excess -5.6%
450d
+19.2%
Win rate 92.5% Excess +15.1%
267d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 595 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 4.2%, win rate 51.6%, lagged the market by 1.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +14.17%, win rate 56%, beating the market by +9.65 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

48 times historically; 60-day forward avg +15.05%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +11.65 pts on average.

What does 世紀鋼 do? Company profile

鋼鐵工業；鋼結構工程與離岸風電水下基礎鋼構 上市

Overview

9958 對應證券為世紀鋼鐵結構股份有限公司普通股，股票簡稱世紀鋼，於台灣證券交易所上市，產業別為鋼鐵工業。公司成立於 1987/10/09，上市掛牌日為 2008/03/12，總部位於桃園市觀音區中山路一段1119號。依公司 115 年股東常年報與公開資料，實收資本額約新台幣 24.69 億元，已發行普通股 246,896,665 股；董事長為賴文祥，總經理為李建安（年報載明李建安於 2025/11/13 升任總經理；部分舊資料仍列李育慶）。截至 2026/03/27，公司員工數 326 人，其中直接人員 163 人、間接人員 135 人、管理人員 28 人。主要法人股東包括向鋒投資、祥鼎投資、冠增投資；年報揭露向鋒投資主要股東為陳杏雪 46.67%、賴文祥 43.33%、賴俊成 4.67%、賴惠華 4.33%、賴俊語 1.00%，祥鼎投資主要股東為陳杏雪 65.69%、賴文祥 29.08%、賴惠華 2.31%、賴俊成 2.31%、賴俊語 0.61%。集團重要轉投資與供應鏈公司包括世紀離岸風電設備、世紀樺欣風能、世紀重工國際、PT Century Indonesia Wind Energy、緬甸世紀鋼鐵結構等；公司近年由傳統鋼構轉型為離岸風電水下基礎與大型鋼構製造商。

Business

世紀鋼早期核心為鋼骨結構工程，產品與服務包括大樓建築用鋼骨結構、工業廠房與物流倉庫、大型商場與體育館、停車場、橋樑、焚化爐、設備類鋼構、各式焊接型鋼，以及發電、輸電、配電機械設備與離岸風電水上及水下基礎高鋼結構。2025 年（民國114年）合併營收新台幣 144.63065 億元，年增約 16%，主要來自渢妙案大量投入與海盛案啟動；營業毛利 42.36098 億元，稅後淨利 26.57564 億元，EPS 6.57 元。2025 年主要產品營收結構為：風電鋼構 128.78942 億元、占 89.05%；高樓鋼構 11.56290 億元、占 7.99%；公共工程 0.05559 億元、占 0.04%；其他鋼構含鋼品 4.22286 億元、占 2.92%；廠房鋼構為負 1.2 萬元、占比約 0，推測為工程認列調整。商業模式以專案型承攬與工程進度認列為主，傳統鋼構依業主或營造廠圖面加工、組立、檢測、出貨與安裝；離岸風電則供應 Pin Pile 基樁、Jacket 導管架、轉接段、塔架相關構件與大組立服務。2025 年銷售地區幾乎全為內銷，其中中部 90.30%、北部 9.70%。2024 年主要客戶包括海龍離岸風電與富崴能源；2025 年主要客戶為渢妙離岸風電，銷貨 106.27324 億元、占 73.48%。公司在年報中說明水下基礎鋼結構需要後線腹地與重件碼頭，進入門檻高於一般鋼構，並已取得 EN 1090、ISO 3834 等認證。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以離岸風電為核心。2025 年已呈現風電鋼構占營收 89.05%，公司年報指出未來主要資源將投入離岸風電水下基礎工程，傳統鋼構雖仍有商辦、廠房、公共工程需求，但利潤與成長性低於風電；公司預期風電相關占比將逐年成長至 90% 以上。成長動能包括台灣離岸風電區塊開發 3-1、3-2 期進入建置與交付期，海盛、海廣、蔚藍海、渢妙二期等案場帶來後續需求；公司在台北港、台中港與印尼分工布局，台北港負責 Jacket 大組立與轉接段，台中港支援 Pin Pile 後製程與部分構件，印尼巴淡島廠承接前段製程或海外非國產化訂單以降低成本。公司年報稱印尼子公司預期 2026 年第三季完成建廠並試生產、第四季量產，投入蔚藍海、海廣等風場下腿管及轉接段製造；外部報導亦提到台北港第五期廠與印尼巴淡島新廠於 2026 年陸續完工，支援大型 Jacket 與海外供應。中長期機會來自全球能源轉型、企業綠電需求、台灣與亞太離岸風電發展、風機大型化帶動單座水下基礎重量與技術門檻提升，以及集團從基樁、Jacket、塔架到起重與碼頭組裝的一條龍分工。主要風險包括離岸風電國產化政策鬆綁或 WTO 爭議導致外商競爭加劇、3-3 選商規則與開發商財務條件不確定、單一大型風場工程進度造成營收與毛利波動、鋼材與焊材成本、利率與匯率、專案保固與品質責任、重件碼頭與廠房擴建進度、印尼與緬甸海外投資執行風險，以及傳統鋼構市場削價競爭與房市信用管制影響。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 中國鋼鐵 2002 主要鋼板供應商；年報列為鋼板主要供應商，2025 年進貨額 4.00196 億元、占 10.04%。
  • 新光鋼鐵 2031 主要鋼板與風電鋼材加工供應鏈；2024 年進貨額 10.08558 億元、占 19.05%。
  • 東京日鐵 日本鋼鐵供應商，非台股掛牌；年報列為鋼板主要供應商，2024 年進貨額 6.59237 億元、占 12.45%。
  • SK oceanplant Co., Ltd. 韓國上市公司，非台股掛牌；2024 年為主要進貨供應商，進貨額 5.57613 億元、占 10.53%。
  • 前端離岸風電設備製造 興櫃戰略新板公司，年報列 2024 年進貨額 5.44181 億元、占 10.28%；屬離岸風電鋼管、鋼板裁剪加工供應鏈。
  • 盈發金屬 型鋼主要供應商或經銷商，未確認為台股上市櫃。
  • 誠鋼實業 型鋼主要供應商或經銷商，未確認為台股上市櫃。
  • Welcon 丹麥風機塔架技術合作方，非台股掛牌；公司年報提及世紀樺欣與其簽署技術合約。
Downstream
  • 渢妙離岸風力發電 CIP 相關離岸風場專案公司，非台股掛牌；2025 年為主要銷貨客戶，銷貨占 73.48%，專案內容為渢妙風場水下基樁與 Jacket 相關工程。
  • 海龍離岸風電 離岸風場開發專案公司，非台股掛牌；2024 年主要銷貨客戶，銷貨占 50.24%。
  • 富崴能源 離岸風電工程客戶，未確認為台股掛牌公司；2024 年主要銷貨客戶，銷貨占 42.62%，承攬台電離岸風力發電第二期計畫下部結構與雜項機電設備製造供應。
  • 海盛風力發電 離岸風場專案公司，非台股掛牌；2025 年起依公司重大契約執行海盛風場水下基樁。
  • 遠雄建設 5522 傳統鋼構終端業主之一；年報契約列 AH2 遠雄建設北投案鋼骨工程，實際承攬對象為營造廠。
  • 長虹建設 5534 傳統鋼構終端業主之一；年報列長虹虹創科技大樓鋼骨工程，實際承攬對象為宏林營造。
  • 潤隆建設 1808 傳統鋼構終端業主之一；年報列潤隆建設萬芳段集合住宅鋼構工程，實際承攬對象為日商華大成營造。

Competitors

  • 中國鋼鐵結構 2013 年報列為主要競爭對手之一；大型鋼結構廠。
  • 春源鋼鐵 2010 年報列為主要競爭對手之一；鋼鐵加工與鋼構相關業者。
  • 東鋼鋼結構 年報列為主要競爭對手之一；未確認為台股上市櫃，屬東和鋼鐵集團相關鋼構公司。
  • 長榮重工 年報列為主要競爭對手之一；未確認為台股上市櫃。
  • 中鋼集團／興達海基 2002 在離岸風電水下基礎領域具重件碼頭與製造能力；年報指出國內目前僅中鋼與世紀風電在擁有重件碼頭的港埠旁規劃製造廠區。stock_id 填母集團中國鋼鐵。
  • SK oceanplant 韓國上市、非台股掛牌；亞太離岸風電水下基礎與大型鋼構國際競爭者，亦曾為世紀鋼供應商。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.