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1609

大亞 Electrical & Cable As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 大亞 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 58Quality 70Growth 66Momentum 55Chips 45

Is 大亞 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 73th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.0%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 30th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 46th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 0.0% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 22.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.42
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 摩根大通 holds 5,242 lots
  • sellers have 1,835 lots left, ~92 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -7% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 5,242 lots since the start (sold 23%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 美林 peaked at 1,336 lots, has sold 33%, 899 left, ~22 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.31pp, mid holders -9, retail +1.92pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -12,500 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通港商野村國泰-敦南永豐金-內湖凱基-桃園玉山-高雄
Distributing
美林元富-台中元大-大益台新證券元大-頭份國票-敦北法人
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利元大證券凱基-台北美商高盛
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +5,242
    sold 23%
  • 港商野村 +2,910
    sold 11%
  • 國泰-敦南 +965
    sold 15%· still adding
  • 永豐金-內湖 +902
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-桃園 +687
    sold 9%
  • 玉山-高雄 +560
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美林 899 left
    sold 33%· ~22 sessions to clear
  • 元富-台中 185 left
    sold 85%· paused recently
  • 元大-大益 382 left
    sold 61%· paused recently
  • 台新證券 211 left
    sold 57%· paused recently
  • 元大-頭份 166 left
    sold 62%· paused recently
  • 國票-敦北法人 111 left
    sold 74%· ~3 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -6,138
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 元大證券 -3,082
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -2,707
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 美商高盛 -2,418
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 1,835 lots ~93 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +3,908 absorbed / -1,514 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -9,771 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 21.98%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

57 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 42, Median +0.74%, Excess -0.15%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；60-day: Win 61.9%, Sample 42, Median +2.64%, Excess +5.24%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 51.2%, Sample 41, Median +0.39%, Excess +5.11%, Beat mkt rate 51.2%

120 days after: historical avg +9.13%

20-day +1.12%
60-day +9.08%
120-day +9.13%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.1%
61.9%
51.2%
Sample
42
42
41
Median
+0.74%
+2.64%
+0.39%
Excess
-0.15%
+5.24%
+5.11%
Beat mkt rate
42.9%
50%
51.2%

Over 41 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.13%, beat the market by 5.11 pts; win rate 51.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 419+39.5% +39.2% 73% +12.3%
20-40 924+40.2% +26.3% 69.3% +25.4%
40-60 You are here295+21.5% +6.5% 55.9% +4.6%
60-80 391+26.6% +4.1% 57.8% +2.6%
80-100 388+17.1% -2.6% 38.4% -5.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 15.94, at the 46.4th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+24.5%
Win rate 66.2% Excess +14.6%
536d
Now
+12.2%
Win rate 49.3% Excess +6%
499d
-1.2%
Win rate 40.2% Excess -15.7%
346d
60-day momentum down
+23.6%
Win rate 63% Excess +14.5%
546d
+19.9%
Win rate 60.6% Excess +7.6%
307d
-0.7%
Win rate 53.8% Excess -14.1%
303d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 499 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 12.2%, win rate 49.3%, beat the market by 6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

22 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.41%, win rate 63.6%, beating the market by +9.62 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

64 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.75%, win rate 53.2%, beating the market by -1.85 pts on average.

What does 大亞 do? Company profile

電器電纜 上市

Overview

1609 對應證券為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，中文簡稱大亞，主體為大亞電線電纜股份有限公司。公司源自1955年台南大亞實業社，1962年11月7日登記設立，1967年更名為大亞電線電纜股份有限公司，1988年12月12日在台灣證券交易所上市。總部與主要地址為臺南市關廟區中山路二段249號。董事長為沈尚弘，總經理為沈尚宜。依2026年第1季合併財報，截至2026年3月31日額定股本為新臺幣100億元，實收股本為新臺幣78.52619億元，普通股785,261,944股，每股面額10元。2024年第3季法說資料揭露大亞總公司員工639名、集團人數約1,584名；此為2024年法說數，非2026年最新員工數。主要股東依公司2026年3月24日股東會資訊，前十大包含沈尚宜2.40%、嘉禧投資代表人沈尚弘1.78%、沈尚慧1.57%、王文華1.55%、沈尚邦1.25%、匯豐台灣受託保管美林國際投資專戶1.03%、摩根銀行台北分行託管梵加德股票指數專戶0.92%、嘉上投資代表人沈尚弘0.87%、沈尚弘0.81%、大通託管先進星光先進總合國際股票指數0.75%。公司組織與業務橫跨電力通信、漆包線、銅材暨台北管理處、營建、企業發展及投資、總管理處等事業群，近年定位為能源串接的領導品牌。

Business

大亞核心商業模式為原料採購、電線電纜與漆包線研發製造、接單生產、工程與能源服務，並透過子公司布局太陽能、儲能、綠電交易與創投。主要產品包含交連聚乙烯XLPE電力電纜、PVC電線電纜、橡膠電纜、通信電纜、光纖電纜、低煙無鹵電纜、耐熱耐燃電纜、太陽能線、裸銅線、漆包線與三層絕緣線。官方網站說明公司領先開發161kV與345kV交連PE電力電纜，且為第一間取得台電定型試驗認證的本土廠商；漆包線則為國內第一家專業製造廠，雙龍牌漆包線行銷海內外超過50年。依MoneyDJ整理，2024年產品營收比重約為塑膠電線電纜16%、交連聚乙烯電力電纜50%、橡膠電線電纜2%、裸銅線11%、漆包線17%、通信及光纖電纜1%、營建及其他3%；2025年第3季法說媒體報導則指出當季主要出貨以電力電纜為主，約占71%，漆包線與裸銅線各約11%。主要客戶與應用包含台電輸配電與強韌電網、民間半導體與科技業廠房、建設公司、公共工程與軌道工程、電子電機馬達、無人機馬達、低軌衛星相關應用，以及太陽能與儲能案場。綠能方面，官方網站揭露截至2025年12月旗下已有73座太陽能電廠、總裝置容量超過200MW；另建置台中輸電級E-dReg 100MW長效儲能場，日儲約20萬度，提供電網調頻與綠能併網服務。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年主要成長動能來自三條線。第一是台電強韌電網與輸配電升級。台電69kV、161kV、345kV電纜需求仍是高壓與超高壓電纜廠的中長期訂單來源；2025年底與2026年法說相關報導均指出大亞電線電纜訂單維持高檔或滿檔，且出貨期間可跨1至2年甚至7至8年，支撐2026至2028年可見度。第二是AI、高用電產業與公共建設帶動民間與軌道工程用電需求。2026年報導指出客戶涵蓋半導體、科技業與建設公司，並提到高雄捷運黃線約50億元中壓電纜訂單，整體在手訂單曾達約150億元。第三是綠能與儲能。大亞太陽能案場約200MW以上，長期目標曾提及超過500MW規模；龍井100MW E-dReg案場已於2025年9月啟用，另有75MW E-dReg案場預計2026年第2季或2026年中加入台電AFC電力交易平台，儲能有機會提高非傳統線纜獲利比重。新產品與新技術方面，超導熱漆包線、銅包鋁線、三層絕緣線、無鉛與低煙無鹵環保電線、161kV與345kV高壓電纜能力，是其差異化重點；媒體報導稱無人機與低軌衛星相關客戶已陸續出貨或共同研發，但公司亦表示目前用量有限、營收貢獻難估。主要風險包括銅價與匯率波動、銅成本轉嫁與加權平均成本造成毛利率波動、台電與公共工程標案時程不確定、太陽能案場環評與政策審查趨嚴、颱風等天然災害對太陽能案場造成損失、儲能平台扣款或調度規則變化、漆包線受全球製造業景氣與關稅影響，以及創投金融評價損益波動。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 銅材與國際銅供應商 電力電纜、裸銅線與漆包線主要原料；MoneyDJ整理指出銅材主要由智利、日本、中國、印尼等地進口。非單一台股掛牌公司，且公司未逐一揭露直接供應商。
  • 台灣塑膠工業股份有限公司 1301 PVC粉供應來源之一；MoneyDJ資料列示PVC粉由台塑等公司供應，屬電線電纜絕緣與外被材料上游。
  • 南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司 1303 可塑劑DINP供應來源之一；MoneyDJ資料列示可塑劑由國內南亞供應，屬電纜塑膠材料上游。
  • Dow、Borealis、NUC、Hanwha、Borouge 交連PE粒、高密度PE粒與外被PE粒等原料供應商；分屬美國、歐洲、日本、韓國或中東等非台股掛牌公司或未於台灣上市櫃。
  • Furukawa、Sumitomo 光纖原料供應商；日系企業，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 國精化學股份有限公司 4722 凡立水供應商之一；凡立水為漆包線絕緣塗料相關原料，MoneyDJ資料列示國精公司與福保、義芳、東協、ELANTAS等為供應來源。
Downstream
  • 台灣電力股份有限公司 主要電力電纜客戶與台電強韌電網、69kV、161kV、345kV輸配電標案需求來源；台電非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 高雄捷運黃線相關工程業主或承包體系 2026年媒體報導大亞取得高雄捷運黃線約50億元中壓電纜訂單；具體合約相對人需以公司公告或標案文件再確認。
  • 半導體與科技業廠房客戶 2026年法說相關報導指出民間客戶涵蓋半導體、科技業與建設公司；公司未逐一揭露客戶名稱，故不填台股代號。
  • 建設公司與公共建築工程通路 PVC電線、低煙無鹵、耐熱耐燃、控制與隔離電纜等用於建築、公共工程、醫院、學校、捷運站、高鐵站與消防照明系統；多為專案型客戶，未確認單一上市櫃客戶。
  • 無人機與低軌衛星相關馬達客戶 媒體報導公司漆包線已陸續出貨給無人機業者並配合研發超導熱漆包線，低軌衛星相關應用亦被提及；公司未揭露具名客戶，且營收貢獻仍有限或難估。
  • 企業綠電與台電電力交易平台 太陽能電廠、儲能E-dReg與AFC案場的下游為企業用電戶、綠電轉供與台電電力交易平台；非單一台股上市櫃公司。

Competitors

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.