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2486

一詮 Optoelectronics As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 一詮 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 11Quality 46Growth 74Momentum 93Chips 7

Is 一詮 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 52th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.1%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 98th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 89th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -6.9% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 31.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.45
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 中國信託-三重 holds 1,048 lots
  • sellers have 23,896 lots left, ~725 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +168% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 中國信託-三重 has accumulated 1,048 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 14,666 lots, has sold 31%, 10,158 left, ~224 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.16pp, mid holders +13, retail -4.07pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,995 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
中國信託-三重花旗環球國泰-台中元富-桃園群益金鼎-潭子合庫-三重
Distributing
美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利新加坡商瑞銀凱基-台北摩根大通富邦-台北
Desks
own scale
兆豐-大同兆豐證券永豐金證券港商野村
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 中國信託-三重 +1,048
    sold 0%
  • 花旗環球 +864
    sold 16%
  • 國泰-台中 +628
    sold 13%· still adding
  • 元富-桃園 +555
    sold 0%
  • 群益金鼎-潭子 +518
    sold 0%
  • 合庫-三重 +505
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 10,158 left
    sold 31%· ~224 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 2,469 left
    sold 72%· ~23 sessions to clear
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 4,224 left
    sold 45%· ~55 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 3,003 left
    sold 41%· ~14 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 2,926 left
    sold 27%· paused recently
  • 富邦-台北 946 left
    sold 55%· paused recently

Desks

  • 兆豐-大同 -3,363
    unclassified
  • 兆豐證券 -3,225
    unclassified
  • 永豐金證券 -1,834
    unclassified
  • 港商野村 -1,060
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 23,896 lots ~725 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,688 absorbed / -5,850 sold sellers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1,204 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 31.37%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

81 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 51.7%, Sample 60, Median +0.25%, Excess +1.66%, Beat mkt rate 40%；60-day: Win 45.8%, Sample 59, Median -1.31%, Excess +4.69%, Beat mkt rate 37.3%；120-day: Win 48.3%, Sample 58, Median -4.41%, Excess +15.64%, Beat mkt rate 39.7%

120 days after: historical avg +21.62%

20-day +3.2%
60-day +8.54%
120-day +21.62%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
51.7%
45.8%
48.3%
Sample
60
59
58
Median
+0.25%
-1.31%
-4.41%
Excess
+1.66%
+4.69%
+15.64%
Beat mkt rate
40%
37.3%
39.7%

Over 58 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 21.62%, beat the market by 15.64 pts; win rate 48.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 3Insufficient data
20-40 217+90.2% +76% 67.7% +28.5%
40-60 316+64.7% -20.1% 41.5% +26.1%
60-80 411+60.7% +99.6% 63% +43.9%
80-100 You are here440+87.1% +34.6% 68.9% +37.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 493.14, at the 89.2th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(0d)
-5.9%
Win rate 16.9% Excess -6.8%
183d
Now
+47.6%
Win rate 70.2% Excess +32%
610d
60-day momentum down
+61.2%
Win rate 47.9% Excess +33.9%
94d
+3%
Win rate 24.1% Excess -10.1%
345d
+115.4%
Win rate 70.2% Excess +63.4%
275d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 610 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 47.6%, win rate 70.2%, beat the market by 32%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

22 times historically; 60-day forward avg +26.84%, win rate 61.9%, beating the market by +18.32 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

64 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.55%, win rate 48.4%, beating the market by +1.6 pts on average.

What does 一詮 do? Company profile

光電業；LED導線架、半導體散熱元件與電子零組件 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

代號2486對應一詮精密工業股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司創立於1977年8月18日，上市日期為2001年9月19日，總部依公開資料為新北市新莊區新知八路28號11樓（部分股市資料仍列舊址五工五路17號，應以公司與最新公開資料為準）。董事長周萬順，總經理周孟賢，發言人劉秀興，統一編號35866232，股務代理為福邦證券，簽證會計師為資誠聯合會計師事務所。實收資本額約新台幣23.40億元，已發行普通股約2.34億股。2024年報揭露董事長周萬順持股23,032,644股、約9.84%，副董事長李忠義持股16,156,787股、約6.91%；第三方資料顯示董監及大股東持股約17%上下。員工規模公開可得資料以第三方資料約1,200人為參考，未能在本次查核中由公司年報逐項核對。集團生產與子公司據點包含台灣新莊及中國昆山、江門等，主要子公司包括一詮精密電子工業（中國）、一詮科技（中國）、艾克爾先進光電等。

Business

一詮早期以LED與SMD導線架為核心，近年轉向半導體封裝散熱元件。2024年合併營收新台幣54.92億元，產品結構為LED/SMD導線架21.50億元、39.15%，散熱元件9.90億元、18.03%，陶瓷電路板8.67億元、15.79%，TV背光模組6.97億元、12.69%，IC導線架4.41億元、8.03%，租金收入0.65%，其他5.66%。主要產品包括LED/SMD導線架、TV背光模組、陶瓷電路板、半導體封裝均熱片/熱擴散片與散熱模組、IC導線架。LED導線架用於交通號誌、TV背光、手機光源、照明、車燈、紅外線等；TV背光模組用於32至100吋電視；散熱元件用於半導體封裝與高功耗晶片散熱；陶瓷電路板應用於消費性電子、感測、照明、車用與UV設備。商業模式以B2B精密沖壓、電鍍、塑膠射出、CNC加工、封裝零組件與客製化散熱元件供應為主，透過台灣與中國廠區就近服務LED封裝、面板、半導體封裝、晶圓與AI伺服器供應鏈客戶。2024年銷售地區為亞洲83.27%、台灣15.24%、美洲1.46%、歐洲0.03%。公開資料指出國內主要客戶包含立碁、億光等；公司與新聞資料另提到已導入高階先進封裝廠、晶圓廠、ASIC/CSP陣營及北美AI客戶，但多數終端客戶名稱未正式揭露。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年核心展望在於從傳統LED導線架與TV背光零組件，轉向AI伺服器、高功耗ASIC/GPU/TPU與先進封裝散熱。公司2025年全年營收約60.46億元、年增約10%，創近十年新高；媒體與公司新聞指出2025年底AI伺服器散熱元件出貨暢旺，散熱元件比重已顯著提高。2026年第1季營收約16.2億元、年增19.91%，毛利率升至21.05%，歸母淨利約6,648.8萬元、EPS 0.29元；2026年4月營收約6.67億元、年增約21%，5月營收約6.94億元、年增約31%，顯示散熱轉型開始反映在營收與毛利率。成長動能包括：1. 高階均熱片、IHS、Metal TIM、VC Lid、Stiffener等晶片/封裝端散熱零組件導入AI與網通平台；2. AI晶片功耗往1000W、2000W甚至更高發展，帶動大型、高平整度、高精密均熱片與液冷零組件需求；3. 公司規劃水冷板、分歧管、浸沒式冷卻模組、2000W微流道均熱片與3000W以上雙向冷卻模組；4. 法說新聞稱2026年散熱元件營收目標較2025年16至17億元挑戰突破40億元，屬管理層展望，需以實際月營收與季報驗證；5. 2024年報列示超高密度光耦導線架預計2026年第1季量產，高功率TOLL/TOLT導線架預計2025年第4季開發完成，另有蝕刻樣品與可靠度驗證項目預計2027年第1季量產。主要風險包括LED與導線架既有市場價格競爭、產品單價下滑、中國過剩產能、銅等金屬原物料價格波動、新台幣匯率、產能擴充與廠房搬遷費用、AI客戶驗證與量產時程不確定、終端客戶集中、先進封裝平台設計變更、同業高階散熱競爭、地緣政治與貿易保護。2027至2028年若高功耗AI晶片與液冷滲透率持續提升，一詮有機會擴大半導體散熱營收占比；但具體營收、EPS與市占率尚無足夠可查證公開指引，應視訂單、產能利用率、毛利率與客戶認證進度滾動修正。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 第一銅科技股份有限公司 2009 年報列為一詮LED導線架鐵、銅等主要原料來源之一；台股上市公司。
  • 光洋應用材料科技股份有限公司 1785 年報列為電鍍銀板供應商之一；台股上櫃公司。
  • 榮豐工業股份有限公司 年報列為LED導線架鐵、銅等主要原料來源之一；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • Minchali（In-Sun） 年報列為LED導線架鐵、銅等主要原料來源之一；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • Proterial Taiwan, Ltd. 年報列為LED導線架鐵、銅等主要原料來源之一；日系材料集團在台公司，未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • Mattel, Inc. 年報列為電鍍銀板供應商之一；名稱依年報英文揭露，未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • Purify Fine Materials Co., Ltd. 年報列為電鍍銀板供應商之一；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • Kunhsin 年報列為直下式TV背光模組LED材料供應商之一；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • ZDM 年報列為直下式TV背光模組LED材料供應商之一；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 富采控股／晶電 3714 年報產業鏈示意將EPISTAR（現富采旗下晶電）列於LED磊晶/晶粒上游；此為產業鏈關係，非必然代表直接採購。
  • 光磊科技股份有限公司 2340 年報產業鏈示意將TEKCORE列於LED磊晶/晶粒上游；此為產業鏈關係，非必然代表直接採購。
  • 鼎元光電科技股份有限公司 2426 年報產業鏈示意將TYNTEK列於LED磊晶/晶粒上游；此為產業鏈關係，非必然代表直接採購。
Downstream
  • 億光電子工業股份有限公司 2393 MoneyDJ資料列為一詮國內主要客戶之一；LED封裝與應用廠，使用導線架等封裝零組件。
  • 立碁電子工業股份有限公司 8111 MoneyDJ資料列為一詮國內主要客戶之一；LED封裝/應用相關客戶。
  • 光寶科技股份有限公司 2301 一詮年報LED產業鏈示意列LITEON於封裝/應用端；屬下游應用或封裝鏈關係，非必然代表直接客戶。
  • 宏齊科技股份有限公司 6168 一詮年報LED產業鏈示意列HARVATEK於封裝端；屬下游封裝鏈關係，非必然代表直接客戶。
  • 榮創能源科技股份有限公司 3437 一詮年報LED產業鏈示意列AOT於封裝/模組端；屬下游封裝鏈關係，非必然代表直接客戶。
  • 中國品牌面板廠 MoneyDJ資料稱直下式LED TV背光模組於中國廠生產，主要供貨中國品牌面板廠；個別公司名稱未揭露且多非台股掛牌。
  • 北美AI龍頭客戶 法說新聞稱已導入北美AI龍頭客戶，2025年第4季小量出貨、2026年放量；公司新聞未正式揭露名稱，可能為美國上市或大型雲端/AI晶片客戶。
  • 高階先進封裝廠與晶圓廠 法說新聞稱一詮已成為全球先進封裝及晶圓大廠供應商；未揭露具名客戶，故stock_id設為null。

Competitors

Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.