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2528

皇普 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 皇普 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 88Quality 10Growth 98Momentum 10Chips 11

Is 皇普 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 2th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.6%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 5th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 25th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -5.0% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 506.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.66
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 土銀-新竹 holds 9,750 lots
  • sellers have 771 lots left, ~62 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -26% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 土銀-新竹 has accumulated 9,750 lots since the start (sold 0%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 富邦-板橋 peaked at 688 lots, has sold 38%, 430 left, ~62 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.62pp, mid holders -8, retail -0.86pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,104 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
土銀-新竹第一金國票-桃園永豐金-桃園凱基-台南石橋證券
Distributing
富邦-板橋港商野村元大-中壢國泰-敦南新光(牛牛牛)亞-網路
Desks
own scale
美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利中國信託-忠孝聯邦-大業
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 土銀-新竹 +9,750
    sold 0%
  • 第一金 +2,059
    sold 0%
  • 國票-桃園 +1,726
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-桃園 +1,367
    sold 1%
  • 凱基-台南 +1,104
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 石橋證券 +436
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 富邦-板橋 430 left
    sold 38%· ~62 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 210 left
    sold 40%· paused recently
  • 元大-中壢 239 left
    sold 29%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 219 left
    sold 33%· paused recently
  • 新光 155 left
    sold 41%· ~19 sessions to clear
  • (牛牛牛)亞-網路 104 left
    sold 56%· paused recently

Desks

  • 美商高盛 -4,686
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -2,388
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 中國信託-忠孝 -2,144
    unclassified
  • 聯邦-大業 -2,110
    unclassified
Still selling 771 lots ~62 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,223 absorbed / -267 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -27 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 506.23%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

103 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 42.3%, Sample 97, Median -0.47%, Excess -2.63%, Beat mkt rate 36.1%；60-day: Win 41.2%, Sample 97, Median -3.48%, Excess -2.88%, Beat mkt rate 38.1%；120-day: Win 38.1%, Sample 97, Median -6.53%, Excess +1.06%, Beat mkt rate 40.2%

120 days after: historical avg +9.4%

20-day -1.24%
60-day +0.65%
120-day +9.4%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
42.3%
41.2%
38.1%
Sample
97
97
97
Median
-0.47%
-3.48%
-6.53%
Excess
-2.63%
-2.88%
+1.06%
Beat mkt rate
36.1%
38.1%
40.2%

Over 97 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.4%, beat the market by 1.06 pts; win rate 38.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 54-28% -30.5% 0% -127.7%
20-40 You are here277+44.5% +45.6% 79.1% +25%
40-60 255+28.8% +17.5% 66.3% +9.1%
60-80 315+70% +63.9% 53.7% +26.9%
80-100 379+46.5% +9.1% 62.8% -7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 9.31, at the 25.1th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-1.7%
Win rate 27.1% Excess -31.1%
96d
+24.2%
Win rate 77.9% Excess +13%
299d
+25.8%
Win rate 41.6% Excess +6%
281d
60-day momentum down
Now
+6.6%
Win rate 31.7% Excess -9.7%
315d
-0.6%
Win rate 12.2% Excess +0.1%
115d
+30%
Win rate 57.9% Excess -5.4%
261d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 315 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6.6%, win rate 31.7%, lagged the market by 9.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.61%, win rate 52%, beating the market by +3.33 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

39 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.87%, win rate 39.5%, beating the market by -1.07 pts on average.

What does 皇普 do? Company profile

建材營造業／住宅與商業不動產開發 上市，台灣證券交易所

Overview

皇普建設為台灣上市普通股，股票代號2528，中文簡稱皇普，英文簡稱CROWELL。公司成立於1985年1月17日，1992年10月6日公開發行，1995年3月10日在台灣證券交易所上市；總部位於桃園市桃園區文中路747號6樓。公司統一編號81271967，總機03-2171111，股務代理為福邦證券。依2026年前後公開資料，實收資本額約新台幣43.6億元、已發行普通股約4.36億股；因轉換公司債、股票股利與除權時點，個別資料源揭露股本會有小幅差異。董事長兼總經理為遠安投資股份有限公司代表人蘇永平，2026年5月28日董事會因任期屆滿續任董事長。2024年報揭露截至2025年3月21日員工40人，2024年底為37人；公司為輕資產開發型建商，核心人力集中於土地開發、規劃、銷售與工程管理。主要股東方面，2024年報列示和築投資股份有限公司持有150,727,189股、約36.46%，遠安投資股份有限公司持有22,169,004股、約5.36%；法人股東遠安投資主要股東為永平資產管理及蘇永平，和築投資主要股東為林佳宏。

Business

皇普主要營業項目為委託營造廠商興建商業大樓及住宅後出租、出售，並兼有都市計畫範圍內停車場投資、旅館餐飲、建材買賣、房屋租售仲介等登記項目；實際營運重心是住宅大樓、商業大樓、店鋪、停車位與透天住宅開發銷售。2024年報明確揭露，公司主要業務為委託營造廠商興建商業大樓及國民住宅出租出售，國內市場銷售占營收100%，主要產品包括住宅建築、商業建築、停車位與透天住宅。商業模式為取得土地或與地主合建、規劃設計、委外營造、預售或成屋銷售、完工交屋後認列收入；因此營收與獲利高度受完工交屋時點影響，單月或單季波動較大。公司並非自有營造廠模式，所有建築生產活動委由外部合格營造廠執行，公司自身負責土地開發、市場研判、產品定位、設計規劃、工程管理、銷售與售後服務。營收結構上，2024年營收約53.31億元，主要來自集合住宅交屋；2025年因皇普莊園、皇普摩天100、皇普新鼻案、皇普園首之道等建案集中交屋，全年稅後純益約15.32億元、EPS約3.65元，獲利創高。主要客戶為自然人自住、首購、換屋及部分法人買方，2024年報揭露銷售客戶多為自然人，無單一主要銷售對象。主要市場集中在台灣都會區與重劃區，包括桃園、新北鶯歌、台中、高雄、苗栗頭份與新竹等地。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望的核心是完工交屋節奏與土地庫存轉換。2025年為交屋高峰，已知完工與交屋案包括台中皇普莊園、高雄皇普摩天100、桃園皇普園首之道、皇普新鼻案等，公開報導指出2025年完工量逾200億元、EPS 3.65元創高；但營建業收入依完工交屋認列，2026年初單月營收回落不必然代表需求崩壞，而是高峰後的認列空窗。2026年，公司預計有皇普MOMA琢慕、皇普賦隱、皇普國家新美院等案完工，總銷規模約百億元等級；2027年市場報導提到皇普敦和段、皇普大新二等案交屋；2028年則預計有皇普富國段與皇普鶯歌二等案交屋。公司2024年報列示仍在銷售、待推出與規劃案包含皇普莊園、皇普園首之道、皇普摩天100、皇普La Vie、皇普MOMA琢慕、皇普國家新美院、中壢青平住宅案、蘆竹大新二期、桃園中路二段、桃園富國段、鶯歌國慶二期、苗栗頭份中興段、中壢中運段、新竹竹港段、楊梅草湳坡段一二期、台中北屯敦和段、平鎮新德段、中壢環北段等。成長動能來自：已售未完工案逐步入帳、桃園與新北重劃區剛性自住需求、危老重建與合建案比重提高、BIM與PCM導入提升工程控管、綠建築、智慧住宅、電動車充電與小坪數高收納產品趨勢。主要風險包括央行選擇性信用管制與房貸成數限制、平均地權條例與房地合一稅抑制投資需求、土地取得成本高、營建材料與工資上漲、缺工、區域供給增加造成銷售去化壓力、利率與金融環境變動，以及建案完工集中導致營收與EPS年度波動。2026至2028具體完工金額與毛利率仍須以後續公告、使照、交屋與財報為準。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 安興營造有限公司／安興營造股份有限公司 非台股上市櫃公司；皇普2024年報列為主要供應商之一，2024年度採購金額約19.01億元、占年度淨採購31.82%，承攬皇普多項集合住宅與店鋪新建工程。
  • 立本營造有限公司 非台股上市櫃公司；皇普2024年報列為主要供應商之一，2024年度採購金額約13.42億元、占年度淨採購22.48%，承攬台中錦村段、高雄五塊厝段、桃園大新段與青平段等住宅案工程。
  • 莊春 年報英文版列為Zhuang Chun；應為土地交易相對人或土地供應來源，2024年度採購金額約14.15億元、占年度淨採購23.68%；是否為自然人或公司公開資料未完全確認。
  • 地主、土地仲介、國有地標售與合建地主 非單一掛牌公司；為土地取得來源。皇普以自購土地、合建、共同投資開發與標售等方式取得案源。
  • 建築師、結構技師、景觀與室內設計、建材供應商 多數為未上市櫃專業服務或材料供應商；提供設計規劃、結構、景觀、公設、廚衛設備、電梯、門窗、鋼筋、水泥、砂石與機電等。
Downstream
  • 自然人購屋客戶 主要銷售對象；包括首購、自住、換屋與部分投資型買方。2024年報揭露銷售客戶多為自然人，因此無單一主要銷售對象。
  • 法人購屋客戶 非主要客群但可能存在；購買住宅、店鋪、辦公或商業空間的法人客戶，年報未揭露重大單一法人客戶。
  • 代銷與廣告企劃公司 非台股掛牌者居多；協助預售案銷售、廣告企劃與通路導客，是建案去化的重要下游合作方。
  • 金融機構與房貸銀行 提供購屋貸款、建築融資、信託與保證等服務；並非最終客戶，但影響購屋者付款能力與建案交屋速度。

Competitors

  • 興富發建設 2542 台股上市大型建商，推案量大，與皇普在住宅大樓、重劃區、首購與換屋市場形成區域競爭。
  • 遠雄建設 5522 台股上市建商，品牌、土地與大型開發案經驗強，與皇普在都會住宅與商辦開發市場競爭。
  • 華固建設 2548 台股上市建商，主要聚焦雙北及高端住宅、商辦市場；在品牌、財務體質與產品定位上為重要同業參照。
  • 國泰建設 2501 台股上市建商，長期深耕住宅與商辦開發，品牌信任度高，是全台住宅開發主要競爭者。
  • 長虹建設 5534 台股上市櫃建商，住宅與商辦開發經驗豐富，與皇普在大台北及都會區土地開發和推案市場競爭。
  • 達麗建設 6177 台股上市建商，布局住宅、商辦及都會區開發案，與皇普在新北、桃園、台中等區域可能有競爭。
  • 亞昕國際開發 5213 台股上市建商，深耕住宅與商業不動產，桃園、新北等區域推案與皇普具可比性。
  • 櫻花建設 2539 台股上市建商，主要布局中部住宅市場；皇普於台中亦有案源，區域上具競爭關係。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.