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2607

榮運 Shipping As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 榮運 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 88Quality 58Growth 76Momentum 23Chips 1

Is 榮運 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 67th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.8%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 9th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 10th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -18.3% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 33.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.42
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 元大-六合 holds 4,357 lots
  • sellers have 233 lots left, ~550 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -13% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-六合 has accumulated 4,357 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大-佳里 peaked at 113 lots, has sold 38%, 70 left, ~16 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.04pp, mid holders +7, retail -0.91pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -905 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-六合富邦證券國泰-松江玉山-大里合庫-三重富邦-南屯
Distributing
元大-佳里富邦-新店凱基-南崁臺銀-金山康和新光-台中
Desks
own scale
新加坡商瑞銀美商高盛摩根大通美林
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-六合 +4,357
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦證券 +2,495
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-松江 +1,492
    sold 1%
  • 玉山-大里 +808
    sold 0%
  • 合庫-三重 +800
    sold 0%
  • 富邦-南屯 +764
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 元大-佳里 70 left
    sold 38%· ~16 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-新店 27 left
    sold 76%· paused recently
  • 凱基-南崁 44 left
    sold 61%· ~6 sessions to clear
  • 臺銀-金山 55 left
    sold 36%· ~550 sessions to clear
  • 康和 10 left
    sold 85%· paused recently
  • 新光-台中 48 left
    sold 25%· paused recently

Desks

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -3,043
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美商高盛 -1,880
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 摩根大通 -1,111
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美林 -1,110
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 233 lots ~550 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,485 absorbed / -213 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -213 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 33.32%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

31 historical occurrences (since 2010-02-10)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 43.3%, Sample 30, Median -0.39%, Excess -1.16%, Beat mkt rate 30%；60-day: Win 46.7%, Sample 30, Median -0.84%, Excess -2.44%, Beat mkt rate 30%；120-day: Win 40%, Sample 30, Median -2.19%, Excess -6.14%, Beat mkt rate 30%

120 days after: historical avg -3.55%

20-day -0.47%
60-day -1.21%
120-day -3.55%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
43.3%
46.7%
40%
Sample
30
30
30
Median
-0.39%
-0.84%
-2.19%
Excess
-1.16%
-2.44%
-6.14%
Beat mkt rate
30%
30%
30%

Over 30 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 3.55%, lagged the market by 6.14 pts; win rate 40%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here1454+8.8% +8.7% 79.5% -15.2%
20-40 528+17.2% -2.4% 36.9% +1.8%
40-60 252+29.5% -3.5% 41.7% +16.5%
60-80 234+14.4% -10.8% 30.8% +9.4%
80-100 538-1.9% -3.2% 37% -5.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 10.57, at the 9.7th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+3%
Win rate 59.7% Excess -8.8%
1069d
+28.3%
Win rate 57.9% Excess +17.1%
273d
-0.3%
Win rate 27.9% Excess -2.4%
416d
60-day momentum down
Now
+2.9%
Win rate 64.5% Excess -5.9%
906d
-8.7%
Win rate 13.5% Excess -13.3%
259d
+13.9%
Win rate 87.2% Excess +11%
203d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 906 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 2.9%, win rate 64.5%, lagged the market by 5.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.24%, win rate 35.3%, beating the market by -5.92 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

77 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.01%, win rate 46.8%, beating the market by -2.36 pts on average.

What does 榮運 do? Company profile

航運業 上市

Overview

2607 對應長榮國際儲運股份有限公司，證券簡稱榮運，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，ISIN 為 TW0002607009，掛牌日為 1990/12/14。公司成立於 1973/10/05，總部位於桃園市桃園區經國路899號，統一編號04406559，電話03-3252060，網站 www.evergreen-eitc.com.tw。董事長為邱顯育，總經理兼發言人為林振芳。依 2026 年可查資料，實收資本額約新台幣 53.36 億元，已發行普通股 533,570,547 股。2025 年年報揭露 2025 年底合併員工 1,297 人，平均年齡 44.20 歲、平均服務年資 17.00 年。主要股東名單截至 2026/03/28：長榮海運股份有限公司持股 215,352,341 股、40.36%；張國華 3.52%；王莊岩 3.05%；楊美珍 2.81%；聖世股份有限公司 2.80%；張聖恩 2.15%；張國明 1.76%；王勝民 1.43%；王勝弘 1.30%；詠股份有限公司 1.27%。公司股利政策為現金股利至少占股利總額 10%；董事會已決議 2025 年度擬配發每股現金股利 2.7 元。2025 年度合併營收 170.99 億元，年減 19.53%；歸屬母公司淨利 28.90 億元，年增 4.07%；EPS 3.56 元。

Business

榮運是長榮集團旗下物流、貨櫃場、陸運、客運、船舶與貨櫃租賃及倉儲資產營運平台。主要服務包含貨物承攬、國際海運、內陸貨櫃運輸、內陸貨櫃場與台中港碼頭貨櫃場、客運與機組員接駁、油品加油站、車輛維修與檢驗、大園物流園區倉儲及物業管理、海空運承攬與供應鏈整合。2025 年合併營收比重為：貨物承攬業 116.08 億元、67.89%；國際海運 23.62 億元、13.81%；內陸運輸 18.10 億元、10.59%；貨櫃場 8.78 億元、5.14%；加油站 3.90 億元、2.28%；其他 0.50 億元、0.29%。商業模式以長榮集團垂直整合、第三方物流與自有資產收益並行：一方面承接長榮海運及其關係企業委託的碼頭、運輸、內陸貨櫃集散、倉儲物流、貨櫃修洗等業務，另一方面透過長榮物流拓展海運、空運、跨境電商、高價值電子產品、AI 伺服器與高科技貨源，並以大園物流園區提供倉儲租賃與供應鏈樞紐服務。2025 年大園物流園區倉儲棟客戶皆簽訂 5-10 年長約、租賃率 100%，並持續出租辦公棟樓層。主要客戶包含 Evergreen Marine (Asia) Pte. Ltd.，2025 年銷貨金額 17.39 億元、占 10.17%，關係為主要法人股東之子公司；其餘客戶分散於航商、進出口貨主、電商、科技、高價值貨物、賣場物流中心、航空公司與旅遊商務客運需求等。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年已呈現營收下滑但獲利韌性提升：合併營收年減 19.53%，但歸母淨利年增 4.07%，EPS 因獲利與減資後股數因素升至 3.56 元。2026-2028 展望的主要成長動能包括：一、內陸貨櫃場與台北港現業營收動能，公司法說會指出內陸貨櫃場業務穩健成長、台北港現業營收提升；二、高價值貨源與供應鏈重組，長榮物流將深耕 AI 伺服器、高科技、跨境電商、北美航線與亞洲區間布局，海運則配合客戶生產基地移轉，以專案運輸與彈性航線配置提升供應鏈韌性；三、大園物流園區已完成倉儲棟出租並成立國際物流中心，可受惠台灣、東南亞、美國供應鏈重組與海空倉一體化需求；四、台中港增設自貿倉、進口/恆溫倉/保稅倉等高附加價值倉儲、進出口整櫃 CY 拖運、貨車媒合平台及派車系統優化；五、資產活化，公司與台灣人壽合資成立中信榮盛，榮運持股 49%，規劃於桃園航空城投入逾 500 億元打造倉儲物流、商場、國際旅館、運動中心或大型體育場館等複合園區，公開報導指預計 2026 年 8 月動工、第一期約 2028 年底至 2029 年完工，2029 年後逐步貢獻營收，因此 2028 前主要是投資與資產重估預期，實質營收貢獻可能偏 2029 以後。中期風險包括美國關稅政策與貿易保護主義、全球經濟放緩、供應鏈波動、地緣政治如俄烏戰爭/以巴衝突/紅海危機、油價高檔波動與通膨、航運供需循環、新船供給、船公司 on dock 策略造成內陸櫃場與拖運結構變化、人工短缺、碳排成本與 ESG/IFRS 永續揭露要求、資通安全、以及桃園航空城大型開發案的資本支出、時程、招商與利率風險。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • Evergreen Marine (Asia) Pte. Ltd. 新加坡未上市公司；2025 年為榮運占進貨淨額 10% 以上之最大供應商，提供船運服務，進貨金額約新台幣 42.33 億元、占 22.76%，為主要法人股東長榮海運之子公司。
  • 長榮海運股份有限公司 2603 台股上市公司；榮運最大股東，持股 40.36%；集團垂直整合下，榮運承接其碼頭、運輸、內陸貨櫃集散、倉儲物流、貨櫃修洗及高雄港第七貨櫃中心倉儲/船邊移櫃等相關業務。
  • 國內主要油品供應商 年報僅揭露加油站各類油品由國內主要油品供應商直接供應，未揭露特定公司名稱；因此 stock_id 設為 null。
  • 歐日車系及維修零件協力廠 年報揭露曳引車及客運車為歐日車系，各項維修零件由合格協力廠供給；未揭露個別供應商名稱。
Downstream
  • Evergreen Marine (Asia) Pte. Ltd. 新加坡未上市公司；2025 年亦為榮運占銷貨淨額 10% 以上之主要客戶，銷貨金額約新台幣 17.39 億元、占 10.17%，為主要法人股東之子公司。
  • 長榮海運股份有限公司 2603 台股上市公司；長榮集團核心航商與榮運最大股東，透過集團分工帶來碼頭、運輸、貨櫃集散、倉儲與貨櫃修洗等委託需求。
  • 長榮航空股份有限公司 2618 台股上市公司；榮運客運業務受惠航空業復甦、機組員接駁車次增加。年報未逐名列示客戶，故此處以集團航空需求與業務邏輯列為可能下游客戶/應用。
  • 高價值電子與 AI 伺服器客戶 年報與法說會揭露公司導入高價值電子客戶，並規劃深耕 AI 伺服器與高科技領域；未揭露個別公司名稱，多屬貨主或品牌/製造客戶。
  • 跨境電商與大型賣場物流中心客戶 公司承攬大型賣場物流中心複合式運輸需求，並拓展印尼電商、跨境電商合併出口等業務；年報未揭露個別客戶名稱。

Competitors

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.