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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 2611 志信. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=2611

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2611

志信 Shipping As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 志信 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 81Quality 57Growth 30Momentum 23Chips 83

Is 志信 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 62th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.0%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 9th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 26th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 6.6% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.33
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 華南永昌 holds 1,128 lots
  • sellers have 154 lots left, ~42 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -7% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 華南永昌 has accumulated 1,128 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 第一金-豐原 peaked at 196 lots, has sold 31%, 135 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.17pp, mid holders +1, retail +0.18pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -826 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
華南永昌富邦-南京台灣摩根士丹利元大-華山富邦-內湖富邦-宜蘭
Distributing
第一金-豐原元大-大里美林美商高盛元大-鳳山國票-桃園
Desks
own scale
新光凱基-台北陽信富邦-新店
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 華南永昌 +1,128
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-南京 +819
    sold 6%
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +562
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-華山 +211
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-內湖 +209
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-宜蘭 +160
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 第一金-豐原 135 left
    sold 31%· paused recently
  • 元大-大里 62 left
    sold 62%· paused recently
  • 美林 30 left
    sold 71%· paused recently
  • 美商高盛 53 left
    sold 38%· paused recently
  • 元大-鳳山 51 left
    sold 39%· paused recently
  • 國票-桃園 36 left
    sold 56%· paused recently

Desks

  • 新光 -607
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -438
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 陽信 -375
    unclassified
  • 富邦-新店 -307
    unclassified
Still selling 154 lots ~42 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,934 absorbed / -215 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -348 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 6%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

39 historical occurrences (since 2012-07-05)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 42.1%, Sample 38, Median -1.02%, Excess +2.34%, Beat mkt rate 42.1%；60-day: Win 35.1%, Sample 37, Median -1.95%, Excess +3.14%, Beat mkt rate 32.4%；120-day: Win 50%, Sample 36, Median -0.02%, Excess +9.39%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%

120 days after: historical avg +21.49%

20-day +4.03%
60-day +8.83%
120-day +21.49%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
42.1%
35.1%
50%
Sample
38
37
36
Median
-1.02%
-1.95%
-0.02%
Excess
+2.34%
+3.14%
+9.39%
Beat mkt rate
42.1%
32.4%
33.3%

Over 36 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 21.49%, beat the market by 9.39 pts; win rate 50%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 402+5.6% -25.2% 30.8% -28.9%
20-40 You are here300+96.6% +62.8% 79% +52.2%
40-60 312+37.5% +8.3% 75.3% +9.2%
60-80 91+233.4% +287.1% 98.9% +179.3%
80-100 304-2.7% +2.8% 61.2% -21.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 10.73, at the 25.9th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+8.5%
Win rate 38.4% Excess -5.8%
271d
-5.4%
Win rate 27.5% Excess -12.5%
251d
-9%
Win rate 47.2% Excess -15.6%
123d
60-day momentum down
Now
+72.1%
Win rate 52.2% Excess +45.9%
433d
+14.4%
Win rate 41.5% Excess +1.9%
234d
+7.5%
Win rate 77.9% Excess -18.6%
217d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 433 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 72.1%, win rate 52.2%, beat the market by 45.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

14 times historically; 60-day forward avg +20.98%, win rate 64.3%, beating the market by +15.7 pts on average.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

35 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.03%, win rate 51.5%, beating the market by +4.89 pts on average.

What does 志信 do? Company profile

航運業 上市（臺灣證券交易所）

Overview

志信國際股份有限公司股票代碼2611，為臺灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業別為航運業；公司成立於1973年11月15日，公開發行日期1990年10月2日，上市日期1993年10月28日，原名志信運輸倉儲股份有限公司，2002年7月31日核准更名。總部位於台北市大安區市民大道三段206號6樓。董事長為黃春發，總經理為陳秀奇；實收資本額1,890,022,720元，已發行普通股189,002,272股，每股面額10元，無特別股、無公司債。2024年年報揭露截至2025年4月22日員工合計216人，其中業務作業人員155人、行政管理人員61人。法人董事及主要持股方面，天品開發持有約43,761,000股、約23.15%，德安開發持有約6,446,451股、約3.41%；年報另揭露德安開發主要股東含德威投資、先施百貨、源泉鋼鐵、美麗華大飯店等，天品開發主要股東含張麗娥、徐明潭、徐維德等。志信目前以貨櫃運輸為根基，並透過投資與事業部布局營建、觀光休閒，主要關係事業包含美麗信酒店、新海運輸倉儲、美麗灣渡假村等。

Business

志信為多角化營運公司，核心業務包含：1.汽車貨櫃貨運與物流運輸：內陸貨櫃運輸、船邊與內陸貨櫃場間拖運、貨主工廠與貨櫃場間CY拖運、基隆/桃園/台中/高雄等區間長途轉運、化學品油槽櫃運輸、汽柴油油品運輸，以及冷凍冷藏貨櫃周邊運輸。公司在基隆、台中、高雄等港口及桃園等區域設營運據點與車隊。2.營建開發：廠辦、商場、住宅大樓與休閒住宅開發、規劃、興建、銷售與租售，近年重點為苗栗竹南「志信耘豊」案。3.觀光休閒與餐旅：主要透過美麗信花園酒店經營客房、餐飲、會議宴會、健身俱樂部、停車場及相關旅宿服務；台北美麗信花園酒店客房約203間。4.買賣/其他：家電商品營運部門已於2023年裁撤以撙節支出，後續仍評估新商品與多角化機會。營收結構方面，2024年年報揭露合併營收687,138仟元，其中運輸收入355,418仟元、占51.72%，餐旅收入331,720仟元、占48.28%；營建業務2022至2024年尚未有建案入帳。2025年9月法說資料揭露2025上半年營收338,995仟元，其中運輸160,800仟元、餐旅172,200仟元、其他5,995仟元，餐旅短期比重已略高於運輸。商業模式上，運輸業務以長期合作之船務公司、貨主、進出口商、製造與貿易商需求為基礎，賺取拖運與物流服務收入；餐旅以住宿、餐飲、宴會、會議及OTA/旅行社/企業客源轉換為收入；營建以土地開發、規劃設計、發包營造、委託代銷、完工交屋形成收入。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望：1.運輸業務：公司策略為鞏固現有客戶、穩定營運收入，透過聯盟或整合方式擴大業務規模，並拓展物流商品、冷凍櫃周邊、高附加價值運輸服務。中長期動能來自台商回流、港區與廠辦/倉儲需求、內需物流與冷鏈需求，但成長受出口景氣、國際貿易量、油價、人力短缺、勞動成本與市場競價限制影響。2.營建開發：2024年報與2025年法說均指出苗栗竹南「志信耘豊」為重點案，法說稱預計2025年底完工，另購入竹南土地並規劃設計，預計2026年第一季推案；若完工交屋順利，2026年前後營建收入可能成為營收增量，但實際入帳時點、毛利率與銷售速度仍須以後續公告為準。中期公司亦提及危老都更、多元住宅開發，但房市信用管制、限貸、升息/高利率、建材與營造成本、人力成本及推案去化速度是主要風險。3.觀光休閒：美麗信花園酒店在2024年住房率達93%，高於台北市觀光旅館平均住房率67.19%；2025至2028年動能在國際旅客回流、韓國/東南亞散客、日本客源、OTA通路、MICE會議住房與餐飲配套、宴會餐飲及文旅休閒布局。風險包含台北市飯店競爭激烈、同級飯店彈性定價、匯率與旅遊偏好變動、兩岸與地緣政治、國旅需求下滑。4.資產與投資：公司持續關注綠能產業及ESG議題，並有處分金融資產、活化資產之紀錄；此類投資收益可改善短期獲利但不屬本業，波動性較高。整體判斷，2025至2028的主要可觀察指標為竹南建案完工/交屋入帳、後續土地推案進度、美麗信住房率與平均房價、運輸貨量與油價成本、營業利益能否由虧轉盈，以及營業外投資收益占獲利比重是否下降。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 臺灣港務公司及基隆、台中、高雄等港區設施 國營/非台股上市公司；志信貨櫃拖運依賴港區碼頭、貨櫃場、油槽區與相關裝卸動線，年報說明公司在三大港口設營運據點。
  • 國際航商、船務公司與貨櫃場業者 多數未確認為直接交易對象或非台股公司；為內陸貨櫃運輸需求來源與作業銜接端，年報描述運輸配送需因應航商、製造商及貿易商需求。
  • 車輛、油品、維修與輪胎等運輸成本供應商 年報未揭露具名供應商；運輸業務主要成本受燃油、車輛維修、駕駛人力與法規成本影響。
  • 土地所有人、建築師、營造廠商、工程承包商 營建業上游；年報稱主要原料為土地與工程，土地以自行開發或購地合建取得，工程以發包營造及工程為主，未具名揭露供應商。
  • 客房用品、生鮮食品、飲料與一般用品供應商 餐旅業上游；美麗信花園酒店經營住宿與餐飲，年報稱主要原料為顧客用品及生鮮食品等，供應情況穩定。
  • OTA網路訂房平台與旅行社 多為非台股掛牌或未具名平台；年報與法說指出網路訂房、旅行社、公司訂房是餐旅客源與通路，2024年報稱網路訂房已占整體約70%。
Downstream
  • 船務公司、製造商、貿易商與貨主 運輸服務客戶群；年報稱公司主要客戶多為長期合作伙伴，但主要客戶依契約以代號揭露，未公開具名。
  • 化學工廠與油品/危險品運輸客戶 下游應用為化學品油槽櫃、汽柴油等危險品運輸；公司自1992年起拓展化學原料危險品運輸，2002年拓展油品運輸。
  • 進出口商與冷凍冷藏貨主 下游應用為冷凍、冷藏物品之貨櫃運輸；公司2012年起於板架加裝冷凍櫃專屬發電機，提供冷鏈相關運輸服務。
  • 購屋者、企業廠辦及商辦需求者 營建業下游；住宅、店鋪、停車位、廠辦大樓等銷售或租售對象，實際案源與客戶未具名揭露。
  • 個人旅客、商務旅客、企業會議與宴會客戶 餐旅業下游；美麗信花園酒店提供住宿、餐飲、會議宴會、健身俱樂部等服務。
  • 台灣宅配通股份有限公司 2642 台股上市公司；舊年報曾揭露承攬黑貓宅急便轉運車業務，惟截至本次研究未確認其為2026年仍有效之主要客戶，列為歷史合作線索。

Competitors

Sources（11）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.