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2889

國票金 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 國票金 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 67Quality 76Growth 95Momentum 37Chips 92

Is 國票金 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~100% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.1%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 44th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 71th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 11.6% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 147.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.29
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 凱基-站前 holds 17,367 lots
  • sellers have 2,164 lots left, ~64 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -7% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-站前 has accumulated 17,367 lots since the start (sold 3%), holding.
  • Main distributor 美林 peaked at 4,574 lots, has sold 45%, 2,505 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.20pp, mid holders -18, retail +0.12pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -20,120 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-站前玉山證券永豐金-台南凱基-桃園富邦-南京元大-府城
Distributing
美林美商高盛花旗環球福勝富邦-台北元大-大灣
Desks
own scale
群益金鼎-東門凱基-台北群益金鼎-台南群益金鼎-嘉義
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-站前 +17,367
    sold 3%
  • 玉山證券 +16,950
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-台南 +16,265
    sold 0%
  • 凱基-桃園 +4,855
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-南京 +3,635
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 元大-府城 +3,595
    sold 7%

Distributing

  • 美林 2,505 left
    sold 45%· paused recently
  • 美商高盛 334 left
    sold 89%· paused recently
  • 花旗環球 714 left
    sold 66%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 福勝 466 left
    sold 39%· ~15 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-台北 497 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 元大-大灣 273 left
    sold 57%· ~8 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 群益金鼎-東門 -14,861
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -8,656
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 群益金鼎-台南 -8,511
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎-嘉義 -7,590
    unclassified
Still selling 2,164 lots ~64 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +9,901 absorbed / -1,943 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -11,317 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 147.94%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

95 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 48.3%, Sample 87, Median 0%, Excess -0.02%, Beat mkt rate 42.5%；60-day: Win 60%, Sample 85, Median +2.7%, Excess -1.16%, Beat mkt rate 45.9%；120-day: Win 57.8%, Sample 83, Median +2.74%, Excess -1.46%, Beat mkt rate 41%

120 days after: historical avg +6.49%

20-day +1.07%
60-day +4.25%
120-day +6.49%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
48.3%
60%
57.8%
Sample
87
85
83
Median
0%
+2.7%
+2.74%
Excess
-0.02%
-1.16%
-1.46%
Beat mkt rate
42.5%
45.9%
41%

Over 83 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.49%, lagged the market by 1.46 pts; win rate 57.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 62+13% +19.9% 62.9% -1.3%
20-40 877+11.8% +9.1% 70% +1.6%
40-60 822+13.9% +16.1% 73.5% +1.4%
60-80 You are here671+5.8% +2.7% 56.8% -16.5%
80-100 554+14.1% +11.2% 76% -12.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 19.74, at the 70.8th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+8.9%
Win rate 76.9% Excess +2.6%
286d
+7.1%
Win rate 71.1% Excess +2.5%
1000d
+3.7%
Win rate 55.2% Excess -9.9%
683d
60-day momentum down
+7.4%
Win rate 87.7% Excess -2.4%
171d
+1.2%
Win rate 53.1% Excess -4.1%
465d
Now
+6.3%
Win rate 60% Excess -6.9%
500d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 500 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6.3%, win rate 60%, lagged the market by 6.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

40 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.02%, win rate 67.5%, beating the market by +0.78 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

78 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.77%, win rate 58.4%, beating the market by -0.89 pts on average.

What does 國票金 do? Company profile

金融保險業／金融控股公司 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2889 對應證券為國票金，發行公司為國票金融控股股份有限公司，屬台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立與上市日期均為 2002-03-26，總部位於台北市中山區樂群三路128號17樓。公司主要經營業務為金融控股公司業，透過投資及管理子公司經營票券金融、證券、期貨、投顧、創投、純網銀與租賃等業務。依公司官網基本資料，截至查詢日揭露董事長為張兆順、總經理為吳瑛，實收資本額為新台幣36,335,634,710元，已發行普通股3,633,563,471股，無特別股、無公司債。2025年報揭露集團員工人數為2024年底1,582人、2026-02-28為1,590人。主要股東依2025年報截至2026-03-31前十大股東資料，包括諾威斯股份有限公司8.05%、第一商業銀行股份有限公司4.16%、耐斯資融股份有限公司4.07%、耐斯投資開發股份有限公司3.21%、合作金庫商業銀行股份有限公司3.12%、臺灣銀行股份有限公司2.60%、美麗華大飯店股份有限公司2.35%、臺灣中小企業銀行股份有限公司2.32%、人旺股份有限公司1.93%、彰化商業銀行股份有限公司1.60%。集團主要關係企業包括國際票券金融、國票綜合證券、國票期貨、國票證券投資顧問、國票創業投資、樂天國際商業銀行、國票金租賃、國旺國際融資租賃等。

Business

國票金本體為金融控股公司，收入以對子公司之投資收益為主。2025年度本公司營業比重中，採權益法認列之投資收益約占98.81%、其他收益約占1.19%。主要子公司業務如下：一、國際票券：從事短期票券簽證、承銷、經紀、自營、保證與背書、同業拆款經紀、企業財務諮詢、政府債與金融債／公司債自營、衍生性金融商品、外幣票券與外幣債券、可轉債資產交換等；2025年度淨收益約34.74億元，票券業務占85.26%、債券業務占8.97%、股權投資業務占5.61%。二、國票證券：提供集中市場與櫃檯市場受託買賣及自營、承銷、股務代理、融資融券、受託買賣外國有價證券、期貨自營與期貨交易輔助、投顧、固定收益商品及財富管理等；2025年度收益約55.05億元，經紀業務占67.68%、自營占27.38%、承銷占4.39%、其他占0.55%。三、國票創投：對被投資事業提供資本、經營管理與諮詢，2025年投資主軸包含新能源汽車、零售通路、消費電子科技，並規劃加強大健康、ESG、AI與半導體應用產業。四、樂天國際銀行：純網路銀行，提供存款、放款、國內匯兌、投資、保證等服務，2025年客戶數32.4萬戶，存款餘額約402.96億元、貸款餘額約223.98億元、存放比56%，利息淨收益年增29%。五、國票金租賃：2024年9月開展業務，提供分期付款買賣、融資性租賃、資金貸與、企業財務諮詢等，2025年度收入約0.82億元，分期付款銷貨利息收入占57.05%、手續費收入占22.29%、投資收入占20.64%。整體商業模式以金融中介、承銷與交易、經紀手續費、利差、投資收益、財富管理與租賃融資收益為核心，主要客群為國內法人、自然人投資人、企業籌資客戶、中型企業、純網銀個人與法人客戶。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分為成長動能、策略與風險。成長動能方面，國票金受惠於台灣資本市場交易活絡、AI與數位轉型帶動企業融資需求、綠能與永續金融需求、主管機關推動亞洲資產管理中心、純網銀與數位金融滲透率提升，以及票券與債券利差環境隨美國降息循環改善。公司2025年報列示2026年度營業目標：國際票券保證商業本票9,500億元、承銷商業本票1兆9,000億元、買賣各類票券4兆5,000億元、買賣各類債券2兆5,000億元；國票證券經紀業務受託買賣成交量4兆8,693億元、融資平均餘額193億元；國票創投新增長期投資2.4億元；國票金租賃新增授信20億元。產品與技術方向包括推廣永續發展票券、ESG績效連結商業本票、FRCP免保證商業本票主辦或聯合承銷、可轉債資產交換、外幣債券與避險工具、證券數位下單與Python API程式交易、海外股票與海外債券電子平台、樂天國際銀行企業網銀與法人金融徵授信管理系統、租賃綠能融資等。中長期策略為強化固定收益、企業金融、證券期貨、創投、融資租賃核心業務，擴大子公司營運規模，提升集團交叉銷售與金融併購／投資機會。主要風險包括：台灣金融業整併後規模競爭加劇，國票金屬相對小型金控需提升規模經濟；證券經紀手續費價格競爭與電子下單低費率壓力；市場波動造成自營與投資收益不確定；央行不動產信用管制使不動產相關授信承作難度提高；銀行企金低利競爭壓縮票券保證與短期融資利差；純網銀尚未穩定獲利且面臨傳統銀行數位化、資安與詐欺風險；法遵、IFRS永續揭露、洗錢防制與CRS等監理成本上升；全球關稅政策、地緣政治、油價、主要央行利率分歧與中國內需疲弱等總體不確定性。2027至2028年無公司明確量化指引，以上為依公司已揭露2025年報與金融產業趨勢延伸之定性判斷。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 國內法人與自然人資金提供者 國際票券票債券固定收益商品、證券經紀與財富管理、樂天國際銀行存款等資金來源主要來自國內法人與自然人；非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 金融同業與交易對手 國際票券與國票證券透過RP、債券、衍生性金融商品、承銷、同業拆款與固定收益交易取得流動性、交易對手與商品來源；多數交易對手未逐一揭露。
  • 台灣證券交易所 證券經紀、自營與承銷相關市場基礎設施，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 證券櫃檯買賣中心 櫃檯市場、債券與興櫃等證券業務市場基礎設施，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 臺灣集中保管結算所 票券、證券交割保管與公司推動永續發展票券相關市場基礎設施，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 樂天集團／樂天銀行相關生態圈 樂天國際銀行策略合作與數位金融生態圈來源；樂天集團為日本上市企業體系，非台股上市櫃公司。
Downstream
  • 企業籌資與授信客戶 票券承銷、保證、FRCP、企業金融、租賃融資、聯貸參貸與財務顧問服務之主要下游客戶；公司未揭露主要客戶名單。
  • 國內自然人投資人 國票證券經紀、財富管理、基金、海外股票債券、結構型商品與樂天國際銀行個人金融服務客戶；非上市櫃公司。
  • 國內法人與機構投資人 國票證券法人交易、研究服務、固定收益商品、承銷與國際票券票債券商品之主要客群；個別客戶未揭露。
  • 中型企業與綠能案場業者 國票金租賃鎖定中型企業市場，並規劃太陽能、地熱、充電儲能、水力等綠能設備與案場融資；多數客戶未揭露。
  • 被投資新創與成長期企業 國票創投提供資本與投後管理，投資方向包括大健康、ESG、AI、半導體應用與具IPO潛力個案；個別標的未完整揭露。

Competitors

Sources（9）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.