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3188

鑫龍騰 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 鑫龍騰 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 88Quality 96Growth 99Momentum 19Chips 2

Is 鑫龍騰 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~95% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 13.1%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 1th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 1th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -12.1% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 826.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.28
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 統一 holds 289 lots
  • sellers have 315 lots left, ~108 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -14% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 統一 has accumulated 289 lots since the start (sold 18%), holding.
  • Main distributor 國票-中正 peaked at 269 lots, has sold 84%, 43 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +1, retail +0.38pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,090 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
統一富邦證券康和-高雄國泰-敦南元大-斗六兆豐-小港
Distributing
國票-中正華南永昌-高雄第一金-高雄華南永昌-苗栗合庫-嘉義元大-永康
Desks
own scale
凱基-台北國票-北高雄新加坡商瑞銀台灣摩根士丹利
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 統一 +289
    sold 18%
  • 富邦證券 +243
    sold 0%
  • 康和-高雄 +222
    sold 6%
  • 國泰-敦南 +160
    sold 11%· still adding
  • 元大-斗六 +157
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 兆豐-小港 +148
    sold 3%

Distributing

  • 國票-中正 43 left
    sold 84%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌-高雄 129 left
    sold 31%· ~108 sessions to clear
  • 第一金-高雄 25 left
    sold 81%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌-苗栗 87 left
    sold 26%· ~87 sessions to clear
  • 合庫-嘉義 19 left
    sold 84%· ~19 sessions to clear
  • 元大-永康 39 left
    sold 58%· paused recently

Desks

  • 凱基-台北 -869
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 國票-北高雄 -848
    unclassified
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -504
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -502
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 315 lots ~108 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,152 absorbed / -127 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -198 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 826.23%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

81 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 77, Median -1.06%, Excess -2.52%, Beat mkt rate 36.4%；60-day: Win 42.7%, Sample 75, Median -1.44%, Excess -6.36%, Beat mkt rate 25.3%；120-day: Win 43.1%, Sample 72, Median -4.15%, Excess -8.37%, Beat mkt rate 23.6%

120 days after: historical avg +1.28%

20-day +0.36%
60-day +0.14%
120-day +1.28%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
42.9%
42.7%
43.1%
Sample
77
75
72
Median
-1.06%
-1.44%
-4.15%
Excess
-2.52%
-6.36%
-8.37%
Beat mkt rate
36.4%
25.3%
23.6%

Over 72 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 1.28%, lagged the market by 8.37 pts; win rate 43.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here268-2.4% -1% 46.6% -10.5%
20-40 263+3.2% +6.1% 64.6% -10.4%
40-60 188+62.7% +71.9% 72.9% +21.1%
60-80 261+80.9% +70.5% 100% +50.6%
80-100 89+29.9% +27.5% 100% +2.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 4.16, at the 1.2th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-0.4%
Win rate 31.8% Excess -7.2%
274d
+36.5%
Win rate 71.2% Excess +16.3%
320d
+22.8%
Win rate 90.4% Excess +9%
136d
60-day momentum down
Now
+1.2%
Win rate 58.2% Excess +5.9%
184d
+9.8%
Win rate 80% Excess -10.3%
140d
+14.1%
Win rate 97% Excess -8.6%
133d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 184 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 1.2%, win rate 58.2%, beat the market by 5.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.93%, win rate 66.7%, beating the market by +6.49 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

16 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.17%, win rate 62.5%, beating the market by +2.27 pts on average.

What does 鑫龍騰 do? Company profile

建材營造業／建設業 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

3188 對應證券為鑫龍騰開發股份有限公司，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 2000/11/24，前身為安茂微電子／安拓維電子相關電子業務公司，2015 年起增加營建相關項目，2016 年更名為鑫龍騰開發股份有限公司並轉型住宅與大樓開發租售；股票於 2004/03/17 上櫃。總部位於高雄市鼓山區明誠四路 33 號。董事長黃學藤，總經理黃勁嘉，發言人陳宗燦。Goodinfo 於 2026/06/16 顯示資本額約新台幣 18.83 億元、發行股數 188,332,168 股；公司 2024 年永續報告書揭露 2024 年底員工 19 人。114 年 03 月 29 日前十大股東資料顯示主要股東包括天玉投資開發 19.22%、石琳投資開發 7.59%、瑞益投資 6.08%、張志豪 5.64%、鑫華投資 3.58%、鑫玉投資 3.53%、黃學藤 3.50%、陳雅琴 3.47%、陳麗如 2.38%、董上裕 2.25%；其中黃學藤、陳雅琴、黃勁嘉間具配偶或二親等關係，顯示公司有明顯家族與關係企業持股色彩。

Business

鑫龍騰目前核心業務為住宅及大樓開發租售，並登記建材批發、一般廣告服務等業務；實務營收幾乎全數來自營建／不動產開發。主要產品包括住宅大樓、透天住宅、店面與停車位，開發區域集中高雄，涵蓋鼓山、左營、三民、岡山、仁武、鳳山、楠梓等區，過往亦曾布局台南。公司商業模式以取得土地、規劃設計、委由營造體系興建、銷售住宅或店面並於完工過戶交屋時認列營收為主，因此單月與年度營收受建案完工、交屋及銷售時點影響很大。MoneyDJ 資料指出其營建事業採包工不包料方式，鋼筋、水泥、磚石等由業界主要廠商供應。公司官網列示熱銷或近年建案包括鑫首席、鑫天際、鑫悅、鑫巨蛋 2、鑫天地 2 期、中正 O8 等。2025 年主要受惠鑫悅完工交屋，2026 年主要動能來自鑫巨蛋 2、鑫天地 2、鑫悅餘屋及鑫首席、後港東等接續完工或銷售。終端客戶主要為高雄地區自住、換屋、首購及部分店面需求客群；公司策略聚焦北高雄與高鐵、巨蛋、台積電高雄設廠帶動之區域居住需求。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年：營運主軸為左營高鐵特區鑫悅完工交屋及成屋銷售認列；第三方法說摘要指出 2025Q3 單季營收約 15 億元、EPS 2.58 元，主要受惠鑫悅案。2025 全年營收據法說摘要為 26.96 億元、創歷史新高。2026 年：公司法說摘要指出截至 2026 年 3 月後淨銷售及未交屋在手案量約 73.38 億元、已售未交約 20 億元；2026 年 1 至 2 月營收約 9.59 億元，管理層對全年營收再創高持正面看法。主要來源為鑫巨蛋 2、鑫天地 2、鑫悅餘屋，以及預計 2026 年下半年完工或開始貢獻的岡山鑫首席、仁武後港東案。2027 年：潛在風險是 2025 至 2026 大案集中認列後的業績空窗，但公司法說摘要稱 2027 年仍可由鑫天地 2、鑫悅、後港東、鑫首席剩餘戶數銷售延續營收；此屬管理層展望，需視銷售率、完工、交屋與房貸政策而定。2028 年：富果 2025/11 法說摘要列出公司規劃 2028 年完工案包括鳳山北門段、仁武福興段、左營鑫天際等，2029 年另有楠梓清豐段；若建案如期推進，可形成下一波案量。成長動能來自北高雄土地布局、台積電高雄設廠帶動區域就業與居住需求、高雄房價與土地成本上升下的成屋毛利支撐，以及公司偏向精華或發展中區域選地。主要風險包括央行信用管制與銀行不動產授信緊縮、房貸成數或撥款時程影響交屋、利率上升、營建成本與缺工、土地取得成本墊高、區域供給增加、少數建案認列造成營收與 EPS 波動、公司規模小且集中高雄市場。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 鑫嘉營造股份有限公司 公司子公司／關係營造體系；公開訊息曾公告鑫龍騰與子公司鑫嘉營造追加工程承攬合約，屬主要工程承攬相關方，未上市櫃。
  • 鋼筋、水泥、磚石等建材供應商 MoneyDJ 指出公司營建事業採包工不包料方式，主要材料如鋼筋、水泥、磚石等由業界主要廠商供應；未查得公司揭露具名直接供應商。
  • 中鋼 2002 台股上市鋼鐵龍頭，屬台灣營建鋼材產業上游代表公司；未確認為鑫龍騰直接供應商。
  • 台泥 1101 台股上市水泥供應商，屬台灣營建水泥產業上游代表公司；未確認為鑫龍騰直接供應商。
  • 亞泥 1102 台股上市水泥供應商，屬台灣營建水泥產業上游代表公司；未確認為鑫龍騰直接供應商。
Downstream
  • 高雄住宅自住、首購與換屋客戶 終端購屋客戶，主要購買住宅大樓、透天、店面與停車位；非公司組織且非上市櫃。
  • 北高雄就業與科技產業居住需求 台積電高雄設廠與周邊產業升級被公司法說摘要視為北高雄房市剛性需求來源；不是直接客戶名單。
  • 房屋代銷、房仲與銷售通路 建案銷售與成屋去化可能透過代銷、房仲、現場銷售等通路；未查得公司揭露具名上市櫃通路商。

Competitors

  • 京城 2524 高雄在地建商，住宅與商辦開發，為南部建設市場重要同業。
  • 隆大 5519 高雄建商，住宅與營造業務，區域與產品帶與鑫龍騰重疊。
  • 永信建設 5508 高雄住宅建商，上櫃公司，與鑫龍騰同屬南部住宅開發競爭者。
  • 華友聯 1436 南部建設公司，布局高雄、台南等區域住宅市場。
  • 達麗 6177 上市建商，於高雄、台中、台北等地推案，部分區域與產品帶競爭。
  • 興富發 2542 全台大型建商，高雄亦有推案，具規模、土地與銷售通路優勢。
  • 聯上發 2537 南部起家建商，布局住宅與商用不動產，區域競爭關聯高。
  • 三地開發 1438 高雄不動產開發相關公司，南部市場具競爭與比較意義。
Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.