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4979

華星光 Communications & Internet As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal

Revenue ≥20%

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 華星光 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 華星光 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~85% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 5.7%.
Valuation is high.PE is in the 89th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 98th percentile.
Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -1.9% of volume (net sell).
Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 21.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.46

BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

Distribution to retail — bearish
花旗環球 holds 3,183 lots
sellers have 2,914 lots left, ~140 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +106% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 花旗環球 has accumulated 3,183 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
Main distributor 國泰證券 peaked at 3,734 lots, has sold 74%, 953 left, ~51 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.79pp, mid holders -2, retail +1.12pp — drifting down to retail.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -4,900 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

花旗環球富邦證券凱基凱基-信義凱基-站前國泰-敦南

Distributing

國泰證券台灣摩根士丹利新加坡商瑞銀國票-敦北法人大和國泰摩根大通

Desks

own scale

凱基-台北宏遠證券統一港商野村

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

花旗環球 +3,183

sold 0%
富邦證券 +2,972

sold 16%
凱基 +2,052

sold 23%
凱基-信義 +1,784

sold 22%· still adding
凱基-站前 +1,089

sold 2%
國泰-敦南 +471

sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

國泰證券 953 left

sold 74%· ~51 sessions to clear
台灣摩根士丹利 1,459 left

sold 52%· paused recently
新加坡商瑞銀 949 left

sold 57%· ~53 sessions to clear
國票-敦北法人 1,118 left

sold 43%· paused recently
大和國泰 948 left

sold 26%· paused recently
摩根大通 380 left

sold 69%· paused recently

Desks

凱基-台北 -3,024

day-trade · selling pressure
宏遠證券 -1,856

unclassified
統一 -1,849

unclassified
港商野村 -1,457

hedge desk · will cover

Still selling 2,914 lots ~140 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +805 absorbed / -828 sold sellers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -1,808 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 21.07%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

97 historical occurrences (since 2011-12-12)

120 days after: historical avg +34.96%

20-day +6.35%

60-day +16.45%

120-day +34.96%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

59.5%

60.3%

74%

Sample

Median

+3.2%

+5.48%

+19.39%

Excess

+5.09%

+12.71%

+26.32%

Beat mkt rate

55.7%

55.1%

71.4%

Over 77 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 34.96%, beat the market by 26.32 pts; win rate 74%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 +28.7%

20-40 -45.3%

40-60 +158.2%

60-80 +117.4%

80-100 +72.5% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	247	+28.7%	-13.6%	33.2%	-55%
20-40	63	-45.3%	-52.6%	0%	-56.9%
40-60	107	+158.2%	+148.4%	74.8%	+104.9%
60-80	259	+117.4%	+64.7%	91.1%	+82.5%
80-100 You are here	468	+72.5%	+32.8%	80.3%	+44.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 98.73, at the 98.3th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

-32.1%

Win rate 0% Excess -35.2%

62d

+23%

Win rate 77.7% Excess -1%

148d

Now

+59.5%

Win rate 68.9% Excess +44.2%

515d

60-day momentum down

-5.6%

Win rate 38% Excess -34.6%

234d

+145.1%

Win rate 100% Excess +86.1%

35d

+44.4%

Win rate 75.6% Excess +24.4%

270d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 515 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 59.5%, win rate 68.9%, beat the market by 44.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +28.24%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +25.09 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

52 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.76%, win rate 46%, beating the market by +2.21 pts on average.

What does 華星光 do? Company profile

通信網路業；光通訊主動元件、光學次模組與光收發模組代工櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

4979 對應證券為華星光通科技股份有限公司普通股，簡稱華星光，英文名稱 LuxNet Corporation，市場別為上櫃，產業別為通信網路業。公司登記與台股資料顯示成立日期為 2001/11/15，官網公司簡介另稱創始團隊於民國 88 年在美國加州費利蒙創設，兩者可能分別指創始源流與台灣公司設立日期。總部與工廠位於桃園市中壢區合江路 6 號。上櫃日期為 2011/12/12，興櫃日期為 2010/11/16，公開發行日期為 2010/09/23。實收資本額約新台幣 14.11 億元，已發行普通股約 141,056,322 股，無特別股。董事長為簡惠敏；2026/05/07 公告顯示林大琮辭任暫代總經理，董事會委任新任總經理前由蘇昭陽董事長室特別助理暫代總經理職務。發言人為王雅瑜。員工規模依 113 年報，截至 2025/03/31 合計 499 人，其中直接員工 323 人、間接員工 176 人。主要股東依 113 年報 2025/04/26 資料，包括誼虹科技股份有限公司 10.74%、新制勞工退休基金 2.19%、台新人壽全權委託台新投信帳戶 1.70%、兆豐銀行受託保管穎飛科技公司投資專戶 1.38%、統一黑馬基金專戶 1.32%、花旗受託保管星展銀行相關帳戶 1.00%、花旗受託保管挪威中央銀行相關帳戶 0.97%、統一大滿貫基金專戶 0.96%、台灣企銀受託保管群益店頭市場證券投信基金 0.71%、元大高科技基金專戶 0.66%。2025 年全年合併營收公告為新台幣 4,384,846 仟元，營業利益 737,221 仟元，歸屬母公司淨利 764,245 仟元，EPS 5.43 元；2025 年營收與獲利較 2024 年成長，且公開報導稱創新高。

Business

華星光為光通訊主動元件與模組廠，核心產品包括 FP 與 DFB 邊射型雷射及其光學次模組、VCSEL 面射型雷射光學次模組、檢光器及其光學次模組、光收發模組相關代工服務。應用範圍涵蓋 Datacom、Telecom、雲端運算與資料中心、FTTx、LTE/5G 基地台、安全監控設備等。公司年報說明其技術基礎為邊射型雷射 DFB/FP、檢光二極體 PIN/APD 晶粒，再延伸到 TO、OSA/BOSA、模組等產品；並因應 AI 伺服器與雲端資料中心高速光通訊需求，投入 CW DFB Laser、100mW CW DFB、EML-DFB、100G 至 1.6T 光引擎、CoC/CoB Optical Engine 封裝及 OEM/ODM/JDM 代工。營收結構方面，113 年度各類產品營收比重為光通訊主動元件及模組 94.35%、晶粒 3.95%、其他 1.70%。銷售區域高度集中於北美，113 年度銷售地區為內銷 4.39%、中國大陸 2.49%、北美 92.34%、其他 0.78%。商業模式為自有元件開發、晶粒與光學封裝、光學次模組與模組代工並行，透過與策略夥伴共同開發並服務一線設備商及雲端資料中心客戶。客戶集中度高，113 年度主要銷貨客戶 LC01082 金額新台幣 3,177,581 仟元，占銷貨淨額 92.08%，公司未揭露實名；此代表公司受單一或少數大客戶訂單、產品認證與資本支出節奏影響很大。主要原料包括次模組 TOSA、印刷電路板 PCB、晶粒 CHIP、封蓋 HOUSING、軟板 FPC、導熱矽膠片 TIM；供應商以代碼揭露，113 年度主要進貨供應商 LV221309 占進貨淨額 74.20%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以 AI 資料中心高速互連升級為核心。公司年報指出，全球 AI 應用帶動資料中心對網路頻寬需求增加，雲端運算、AI 資料中心、FTTx、5G 到 6G 布建將推升光通訊零組件需求；公司並引用大型雲端服務商 Meta、Alphabet、Amazon 等 2025 年 AI 資本支出擴大，認為將間接帶動雲端運算與資料中心產品營收。產品面，公司短期聚焦 800G/1.6T 需求，與策略夥伴共同開發 100mW CW Laser、200G EML 光源、高速光學次模組零組件，並提供高精度 CoC、CoB Optical Engine 封裝代工；長期則鎖定高速 10Gbps GEPON、XGS-PON、5G 前傳/中傳、資料中心內與資料中心間高速傳輸產品、OEM/ODM/JDM 代工、高效能雷射與檢光器晶粒、InP 2 吋轉 3 吋並研議 4 吋晶圓製程、CPO 共同封裝光學、HAMR 與 LiDAR 多元應用。產能面，113 年報董事會重要決議揭露二廠廠房建置資本支出案；公開報導亦指出公司規劃總部無塵室與新廠產能以支援 800G 與 1.6T，800G 產品需求於 2024 至 2026 年間快速成長，1.6T 產品預計 2026 年起進入市場。2025 年已公告全年營收新台幣 43.85 億元、EPS 5.43 元，顯示 800G/AI 資料中心需求已反映在營運成長。2026 年可能受惠 800G 放量、1.6T 導入、CW Laser 與 EML Laser 投資及北美雲端資料中心資本支出延續；2027 至 2028 年成長則取決於 1.6T、CPO、矽光子外部光源、4 吋晶圓製程與新廠空間規劃能否順利量產並通過主要客戶驗證。主要風險包括：客戶集中度極高、北美雲端資本支出循環波動、產品世代轉換快且價格下滑、歐美與中國競爭者垂直整合及低價競爭、擴產後折舊與產能利用率壓力、關鍵原物料供應與價格、匯率波動、美中科技戰與出口管制、AI 伺服器規格或光互連技術路線變化造成設計案轉移。

Supply Chain

Upstream

次模組 TOSA 供應商 LV221309 年報以供應商代碼揭露，113 年度占進貨淨額 74.20%，供應狀況標示良好、穩定；實名與是否掛牌無法確認。
印刷電路板 PCB 供應商 LV221085、LV221208 提供 PCB，年報以代碼揭露且標示供應良好、穩定；實名與是否掛牌無法確認。
晶粒 CHIP 供應商 LV221076 提供晶粒，年報以代碼揭露且標示供應良好、穩定；實名與是否掛牌無法確認。
封蓋 HOUSING 供應商 LV220129、LV220704 提供光通訊封裝用封蓋，年報以代碼揭露且標示供應良好、穩定；實名與是否掛牌無法確認。
軟板 FPC 供應商 LV221208 提供 FPC 軟板，年報以代碼揭露且標示供應良好、穩定；實名與是否掛牌無法確認。
導熱矽膠片 TIM 供應商 LV221080 提供散熱材料，年報以代碼揭露且標示供應良好、穩定；實名與是否掛牌無法確認。
磊晶片、IC、電容、TO 金屬材料、PCBA 硬板與金屬料件供應商公司年報揭露短期採購策略會與這些供應商形成可靠穩定合作夥伴，但未揭露實名。

Downstream

主要銷貨客戶 LC01082 年報以客戶代碼揭露，113 年度銷貨新台幣 3,177,581 仟元，占銷貨淨額 92.08%，與發行人關係為無；實名未揭露，依銷售地區與產品應用推測與北美資料中心或光通訊設備供應鏈相關。
北美雲端服務商與資料中心客戶終端應用包括雲端運算、AI 資料中心與資料中心互連；年報提到 Amazon、Google、Microsoft、Meta 等雲端平台推動頻寬需求，但未確認為華星光直接客戶。
光通訊設備商及策略夥伴客戶公司與美國、中國、日本客戶共同開發元件、光學次模組與光收發模組，部分產品通過一、二線設備大廠驗證並供貨；實名未揭露。
電信、FTTx、5G 基地台、安全監控與資料傳輸應用客戶產品下游應用涵蓋 Telecom、FTTx、LTE/5G 基地台、安全監控、Datacom 與雲端運算，屬應用市場分類，非特定揭露公司。

Competitors

環宇-KY 4991 年報競爭對手 GCS 對應台股環宇-KY，主要在收光二極體等 III-V 族光通訊元件領域競爭。
光環 3234 年報列為收光二極體、10G/25G APD 等領域競爭者，為台股上櫃光通訊元件公司。
聯鈞 3450 年報列為代工業務主要競爭者之一，台股上市光通訊元件與模組相關公司。
眾達-KY 4977 年報列為代工業務主要競爭者之一，台股上市光收發模組公司。
聯亞 3081 台股上櫃光通訊磊晶與雷射相關公司，與華星光在 AI 光通訊、雷射元件供應鏈具可比較性；年報競爭清單未直接列名，屬產業可比同業。
光聖 6442 台股上市光通訊與資料中心相關供應鏈公司，與華星光同受 AI 光通訊與高速光模組需求影響；年報競爭清單未直接列名，屬產業可比同業。
Sifotonics 年報列為 10G/25G APD 競爭者，非台股掛牌，實際掛牌狀態未確認。
中國電子科技集團第 13 所、第 29 所、第 44 所年報列為收光二極體或 APD 競爭者，屬中國大陸研究院所或集團體系，非台股掛牌。
西安源杰年報列為 10G/25G LD 主要競爭者，為中國大陸公司，非台股掛牌。
武漢敏芯年報列為 10G/25G LD 主要競爭者，為中國大陸公司，非台股掛牌。
MACOM Technology Solutions 年報列為 10G/25G APD 與 LD 競爭者，美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
Mitsubishi Electric 年報以 Melco 列為 10G/25G LD 競爭者，為日本上市公司，非台股掛牌。
Broadcom 年報列為 10G/25G LD 競爭者，美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
Fabrinet 年報列為代工業務主要競爭者之一，紐約證交所上市公司，非台股掛牌。

Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.