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4991

環宇-KY Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 環宇-KY to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 6Quality 87Growth 85Momentum 88Chips 36

Is 環宇-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~89% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 5.2%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 96th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 93th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.5% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 54.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.50
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 3,385 lots
  • sellers have 3,114 lots left, ~426 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +178% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 3,385 lots since the start (sold 14%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美林 peaked at 2,788 lots, has sold 33%, 1,870 left, ~62 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -6.89pp, mid holders +6, retail +2.94pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -739 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利港商麥格理元大證券港商野村福邦-新竹新光-台南
Distributing
美林美商高盛凱基摩根大通永豐金證券國票-安和
Desks
own scale
富邦證券兆豐證券凱基-信義中國信託
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +3,385
    sold 14%· still adding
  • 港商麥格理 +2,924
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +2,264
    sold 17%
  • 港商野村 +1,376
    sold 23%
  • 福邦-新竹 +323
    sold 0%
  • 新光-台南 +253
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美林 1,870 left
    sold 33%· ~62 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 471 left
    sold 66%· paused recently
  • 凱基 537 left
    sold 39%· ~20 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 565 left
    sold 31%· paused recently
  • 永豐金證券 93 left
    sold 88%· ~2 sessions to clear
  • 國票-安和 164 left
    sold 62%· ~11 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 富邦證券 -1,782
    unclassified
  • 兆豐證券 -1,766
    unclassified
  • 凱基-信義 -996
    unclassified
  • 中國信託 -891
    unclassified
Still selling 3,114 lots ~426 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,300 absorbed / -1,355 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -95 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 54.36%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

58 historical occurrences (since 2014-09-15)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 44, Median -0.21%, Excess +2.09%, Beat mkt rate 47.7%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 42, Median -0.64%, Excess +12.07%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；120-day: Win 65.9%, Sample 41, Median +16.12%, Excess +27.32%, Beat mkt rate 63.4%

120 days after: historical avg +37.93%

20-day +3.44%
60-day +16.27%
120-day +37.93%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
50%
65.9%
Sample
44
42
41
Median
-0.21%
-0.64%
+16.12%
Excess
+2.09%
+12.07%
+27.32%
Beat mkt rate
47.7%
42.9%
63.4%

Over 41 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 37.93%, beat the market by 27.32 pts; win rate 65.9%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 130+23.6% +19.5% 92.3% +7.4%
20-40 62-5.1% -4% 38.7% -17.8%
40-60 111+12% -19.2% 15.3% -15%
60-80 138+248.9% +153.4% 55.8% +134.4%
80-100 You are here281+135.8% -20.7% 19.9% +83.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 231.4, at the 93.3th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+8.3%
Win rate 86% Excess -0.9%
50d
-0.6%
Win rate 62% Excess -4.5%
71d
Now
+181.2%
Win rate 33.3% Excess +136.4%
279d
60-day momentum down
+4.1%
Win rate 73.7% Excess +0.7%
114d
-15.1%
Win rate 17.7% Excess -21.7%
113d
+135.5%
Win rate 64.2% Excess +83.2%
215d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 279 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 181.2%, win rate 33.3%, beat the market by 136.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +41.06%, win rate 76.5%, beating the market by +32.64 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

39 times historically; 60-day forward avg +20.1%, win rate 67.6%, beating the market by +14 pts on average.

What does 環宇-KY do? Company profile

半導體業；化合物半導體、三五族晶圓代工與光通訊元件 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

4991 對應證券為環宇-KY，屬上櫃普通股，不是 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司全名為英屬開曼群島商環宇通訊半導體控股股份有限公司（GCS Holdings, Inc.），成立日為 2010/11/30，興櫃日 2012/03/30，上櫃日 2014/09/15，外國企業註冊地為開曼群島，註冊地址為 One Nexus Way, Camana Bay, Grand Cayman, KY1-9005, Cayman Islands；營運總部為 Global Communication Semiconductors, LLC，地址 23155 Kashiwa Court, Torrance, California 90505, USA，台灣子公司環翔科技位於新北市中和區。董事長為黃大倫，總經理為安寶信（總執行長暨總裁），發言人為余有崇。依公開股市資料，2026 年 6 月附近實收資本額約新台幣 12.09 億元、已發行普通股約 120,943,309 股；2026 年股東常會改選董事後，新任董事包括黃大倫、安寶信及晶成半導體股份有限公司代表人。2024 年報揭露截至 2025/04/07 從業員工合計 158 人，其中間接員工 114 人、直接員工 44 人，平均年齡 50.24 歲、平均服務年資 11.06 年。主要股東方面，公開年報可確認法人董事晶成半導體的主要股東為晶元光電，晶元光電為富采投資控股 100% 持有；但完整前十大股東名冊未能由可公開抓取資料逐項確認。

Business

公司主要從事砷化鎵（GaAs）、磷化銦（InP）、氮化鎵（GaN）及碳化矽（SiC）相關高階射頻與光電元件化合物半導體晶圓代工、自有品牌光電元件產品研發製造銷售，以及相關智慧財產權授權。2024 年產品營收比重為：自有品牌光電元件產品 KGD 新台幣 1,076,886 仟元、61.54%；射頻元件晶圓代工 446,583 仟元、25.52%；光電元件晶圓代工 182,587 仟元、10.43%；技術服務收入約 43,988 仟元、約 2.51%。2024 年地區別營收以中國 63.50%、美國 27.07%、台灣 2.36%、其他約 7.07% 為主。商業模式包括替國際 IDM 或無晶圓廠設計公司提供化合物半導體晶圓製造代工，並銷售自有品牌光通訊關鍵元件，如光探測器 PD、雷射與相關 KGD 元件；自有品牌光電元件主要供下游封裝廠、模組廠使用，終端應用包括 AI 資料中心、100G 至 1.6T 高速光收發模組、光纖通訊、基地台、5G/6G、航太國防、衛星通訊與高頻射頻元件。2024 年報揭露第一大客戶銷貨淨額占總銷貨淨額 57.88%，顯示客戶集中度高。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年公司由 AI 與資料中心高速傳輸需求帶動，自有光電元件占比提升，全年營收新台幣 2,195,155 仟元、年增 25.4%，毛利率 47.1%，營業利益 403,852 仟元，稅後淨利 17,469 仟元、EPS 0.15 元，終結虧損。2026 Q1 營收 714,680 仟元，季增 3.8%、年增 51.0%，毛利率 54.5%，營業利益率 25.5%，EPS 1.67 元，顯示產品組合轉向高毛利光電元件後獲利彈性大幅改善。2025-2028 主要成長動能包括：AI 資料中心 800G、1.6T 光模組需求；200G/Lane InGaAs PIN PD、雷射與發射端元件放量；InP、GaAs、GaN、BAW、PIC、EPIC 製程開發；CPO、LPO 與矽光子架構滲透率提升；國際雲端服務商資本支出擴張；以及美國廠區與策略合作夥伴提供區域分散生產選項。公司法說指出 2026 年 800G 規格占比由 36% 提升至 43%，1.6T 產品將進入規模量產，CPO 交換機仍處初期與技術預演階段但 NVIDIA、Broadcom、Marvell 等大廠持續推動；矽光子技術市場占比預期由 2025 年約 30% 提高至 2030 年約 60%。主要風險包括：第一大客戶集中度高、InP/GaAs 磊晶片與貴金屬等關鍵材料供應穩定性、光通訊新產品良率與客戶驗證進度、CPO/矽光子商用化速度不確定、競爭者擴產與價格壓力、匯率波動、轉投資公司虧損或處分損益波動、地緣政治與美中供應鏈限制。2027-2028 展望屬產業趨勢推估，尚未見公司明確量化財測。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 全新光電 2455 台股上櫃公司；年報列為 GaAs、InGaAs、MOCVD/MBE 磊晶等國內投入廠商，屬化合物半導體磊晶上游。
  • IET-KY 4971 台股上市公司；年報列為光電元件晶圓代工與自有品牌光電元件產品上游國外投入廠商，提供 InP/GaAs 相關磊晶能力。
  • IQE 英國上市公司；年報列為 GaAs、InGaAs、MOCVD/MBE 磊晶國外投入廠商，屬上游化合物半導體磊晶供應商。
  • 常州承芯半導體有限公司 中國未上市公司；環宇-KY 權益法投資公司，2024 年底持股 20.69%，主要從事消費性電子產品之晶圓代工，為 6 吋化合物半導體代工合作平台。
  • 晶成半導體股份有限公司 未上市公司；曾為環宇-KY 6 吋晶圓代工策略合作夥伴，2024 年環宇-KY 已將持股出售予晶元光電；2026 年仍為法人董事。
  • 富采投資控股 3714 台股上市公司；透過晶元光電、晶成半導體與環宇-KY 有策略合作及法人董事關係，屬光電與化合物半導體生態系關係企業。
Downstream
  • 聯鈞 3450 台股上市公司；年報列為光電元件封裝 TO-CAN、COB 等國內投入廠商，屬下游封裝測試與光通訊供應鏈。
  • 眾達-KY 4977 台股上市公司；年報列為光電封裝測試國外投入廠商，屬下游光通訊封裝與模組相關公司。
  • 台達電 2308 台股上市公司；年報列為自有品牌光電元件產品下游模組 Transceiver 國內投入廠商。
  • 波若威 3163 台股上櫃公司；年報列為自有品牌光電元件產品下游模組 Transceiver 國內投入廠商。
  • 全訊 5222 台股上櫃公司；年報列為 RF IC 從設計、製造到封裝測試都自行完成之國內 IDM 廠，屬射頻下游/同業應用鏈。
  • 華星光 4979 台股上櫃公司；年報列為自有品牌光電元件產品中游元件設計製造國內投入廠商，亦可能與公司光通訊元件形成客戶或競合關係。
  • 光環 3234 台股上櫃公司；年報列為自有品牌光電元件產品中游元件設計製造國內投入廠商，亦屬光通訊主動元件供應鏈。
  • 旭創科技 中國未上市或境外上市集團關係公司；年報列為自有品牌光電元件產品下游模組 Transceiver 國外投入廠商。
  • 海信 中國上市/集團公司；年報列為自有品牌光電元件產品下游模組 Transceiver 國外投入廠商。

Competitors

  • 穩懋 3105 台股上櫃公司；年報列為射頻及電力電子晶圓代工主要競爭者，具 6 吋 GaAs 代工能力。
  • 宏捷科 8086 台股上櫃公司；年報列為射頻及電力電子晶圓代工競爭者。
  • 聯穎 年報列為射頻及電力電子晶圓代工競爭者；未能確認其台股掛牌代號，故 stock_id 設為 null。
  • Qorvo 美國上市公司；年報列為射頻晶圓代工、RF IDM 與光電/射頻競爭相關國外投入廠商。
  • Skyworks 美國上市公司；年報列為 RF IDM 國外投入廠商，為射頻元件競爭者。
  • Wolfspeed 美國上市公司；年報列為 GaN/SiC 等射頻與電力電子晶圓代工國外競爭者。
  • MACOM 美國上市公司；年報列為光電元件設計、射頻 IC 設計及自有品牌光電元件競爭相關國外投入廠商。
  • Lumentum 美國上市公司；年報列為自有品牌光電元件產品國外投入廠商，為光通訊主動元件競爭者。
  • IET-KY 4971 台股上市公司；InP/GaAs 磊晶供應商，與環宇-KY 在光通訊與三五族材料鏈上具競合關係。
  • 華星光 4979 台股上櫃公司；光通訊主動元件與模組供應鏈公司，與公司自有品牌光電元件業務具同產業競合關係。
  • 光環 3234 台股上櫃公司；光通訊主動元件供應鏈公司，與公司自有品牌光電元件業務具同產業競合關係。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.