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5533

皇鼎 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
Revenue ≥20% Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 皇鼎 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 74Quality 54Growth 95Momentum 24Chips 69

Is 皇鼎 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 77th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.5%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 51th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 85th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 3.0% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 144.8%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20%, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.63
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 第一金-高雄 holds 1,573 lots
  • sellers have 118 lots left, ~39 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -1% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 第一金-高雄 has accumulated 1,573 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大-中崙 peaked at 150 lots, has sold 60%, 60 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.64pp, mid holders +5, retail -1.29pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -43 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
第一金-高雄永豐金-北高雄中國信託-高雄台灣企銀-屏東台新-三民新百王
Distributing
元大-中崙康和-台南台灣摩根士丹利美林富邦-內湖元大-復北
Desks
own scale
富邦-板橋港商野村玉山-台中華南永昌-敦南
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 第一金-高雄 +1,573
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-北高雄 +971
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 中國信託-高雄 +896
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣企銀-屏東 +767
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新-三民 +534
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新百王 +343
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 元大-中崙 60 left
    sold 60%· paused recently
  • 康和-台南 45 left
    sold 63%· ~13 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 34 left
    sold 43%· ~28 sessions to clear
  • 美林 13 left
    sold 77%· paused recently
  • 富邦-內湖 31 left
    sold 30%· ~39 sessions to clear
  • 元大-復北 11 left
    sold 73%· paused recently

Desks

  • 富邦-板橋 -1,770
    unclassified
  • 港商野村 -460
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 玉山-台中 -271
    unclassified
  • 華南永昌-敦南 -229
    unclassified
Still selling 118 lots ~39 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +951 absorbed / -62 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 144.78%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

111 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 51%, Sample 104, Median +0.28%, Excess -0.54%, Beat mkt rate 41.3%；60-day: Win 55.3%, Sample 103, Median +0.64%, Excess -0.87%, Beat mkt rate 40.8%；120-day: Win 54.9%, Sample 102, Median +1.27%, Excess -0.72%, Beat mkt rate 40.2%

120 days after: historical avg +5.04%

20-day +0.94%
60-day +2.54%
120-day +5.04%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
51%
55.3%
54.9%
Sample
104
103
102
Median
+0.28%
+0.64%
+1.27%
Excess
-0.54%
-0.87%
-0.72%
Beat mkt rate
41.3%
40.8%
40.2%

Over 102 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.04%, lagged the market by 0.72 pts; win rate 54.9%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 5%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

55 historical occurrences (since 2012-06-21)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 44.4%, Sample 54, Median -0.32%, Excess +0.01%, Beat mkt rate 51.9%；60-day: Win 59.3%, Sample 54, Median +1.04%, Excess -1.64%, Beat mkt rate 44.4%；120-day: Win 57.4%, Sample 54, Median +1.18%, Excess -2.39%, Beat mkt rate 48.1%

120 days after: historical avg +2.3%

20-day +0.89%
60-day +1.25%
120-day +2.3%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
44.4%
59.3%
57.4%
Sample
54
54
54
Median
-0.32%
+1.04%
+1.18%
Excess
+0.01%
-1.64%
-2.39%
Beat mkt rate
51.9%
44.4%
48.1%

Over 54 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.3%, lagged the market by 2.39 pts; win rate 57.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 455+11.2% +4.1% 59.8% +0.1%
20-40 398+4.1% +1.9% 61.6% -3.2%
40-60 502+4.6% -0.9% 46.4% -9.9%
60-80 661-4.9% 0% 50.4% -25.3%
80-100 You are here1014+7% +5.4% 85.6% -13.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 23.5, at the 84.7th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+0.7%
Win rate 47.8% Excess -1.5%
345d
+7.3%
Win rate 67.6% Excess -1.5%
537d
+1.5%
Win rate 63.5% Excess -5.3%
852d
60-day momentum down
+2%
Win rate 54% Excess -1.3%
439d
+2.1%
Win rate 38.4% Excess -18.1%
219d
Now
-1.4%
Win rate 56.9% Excess -13.8%
758d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 758 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 1.4%, win rate 56.9%, lagged the market by 13.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

33 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.88%, win rate 51.5%, beating the market by -2.06 pts on average.

What does 皇鼎 do? Company profile

建材營造業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

5533 對應證券為皇鼎，TWSE ISIN 頁面列示為股票、上市日 2008/04/30、市場別上市、產業別建材營造業，因此判定為普通股。公司成立於 1991/04/20，總部位於台北市大安區敦化南路一段294號3樓；董事長劉信雄，副董事長劉珉良，總經理曹羅方。公司於 2001 年股票上櫃，2008 年轉上市；2025 年法說會列示 2025 年實收資本額約新台幣28.5245億元，公開資料列實收資本額 2,852,449,440 元、已發行普通股 285,244,944 股。2025 年年報列 2025 年底員工 239 人、截至 2026/04/30 員工 238 人。主要股東截至 2026/04/25 包括美雄投資18.87%、新點8.03%、富雄投資5.67%、富隆昌投資3.95%、福邦開發3.07%、劉芳妏2.94%、劉書宏2.84%、劉珉良2.80%、劉信雄2.34%、章富投資2.25%。公司轉投資建喬營造以垂直整合營造品質，並轉投資富信大飯店延伸飯店經營。

Business

皇鼎主要從事住宅、商業大樓、工業廠房、廠辦大樓與飯店之開發、出租與出售，並開發都市更新案；年報說明營業比重以委託營造廠興建住宅、飯店、商業大樓及工業廠房之出租、出售業務為主，近年亦參與飯店經營，建築營造仍為主要營收來源。2025 年合併營業收入淨額 1,164,507 仟元，較 2024 年 2,235,793 仟元減少 47.92%；合併淨利 158,467 仟元，EPS 0.56 元，主因房地產完工交屋與銷售認列時點、政策與市場量縮影響。主要產品為工業廠辦大樓、住商大樓、飯店及住宅；產製流程包括市場研調、土地開發、規劃設計、行銷企劃、施工興建、完工交屋與售後服務。近年推案區域以大台北與台南為主，案名包括皇鼎心莊、亞太科技中心、台通智慧科技園區、皇鼎森琚、靜心園、立人名邸、財星科技廣場、皇鼎麗園。2025 法說會列示房地產可銷售金額：環宇科技約1.5億元、皇鼎麗園約1.3億元、財星科技約19.9億元、立人名邸約6.2億元、靜心園約8.7億元、皇鼎心莊約28.6億元；實際收入仍依完工過戶交屋認列。飯店業務方面，富信台北與富信台中為重要經營據點，2025/01/01 至 2025/09/30 非合併基礎資料顯示富信台北客房202間、住房率54.97%、營收92,318仟元、淨利7,986仟元；富信台中客房88間、住房率55.18%、營收43,196仟元、淨利514仟元。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以案源認列、都更與廠辦/住宅需求為主軸。公司 2025 年報及法說會揭露，2026 至 2027 年預計完工或持續銷售案源包括皇鼎森琚，營造工程則包括皇鼎森琚 2023-2027、台通智慧科技園區 2024-2029、亞太科技中心 2024-2029、皇鼎心莊 2025-2030，故 2026-2028 的收入動能主要來自已完工餘屋銷售、預售案去化、工程進度認列與後續交屋。成長動能包括：大台北與台南具發展潛力區域推案、都更與公辦都更評選、工業廠房/廠辦舊換新與企業擴充需求、首購與自住型小坪數低總價產品需求、飯店住房率隨國際商務與觀光恢復而改善。技術與產品方向包括智慧型建築、節能建材、綠建築、電動車充電樁與數位化飯店管理。主要風險包括政府打炒房與信用管制延續、銀行土建融與房貸額度緊縮、平均地權條例與私法人購屋限制、預售屋換約限制、土地與建材成本高檔、營建剩餘土石方新制可能造成工期延宕、碳費與低碳建築要求推升成本、少子化/高齡化壓抑長期住宅需求、飯店人力/食材/電價成本上升及國旅需求外流。2028 以後部分大型工程尚在施工期，收入認列仍高度依賴工程進度、銷售率與完工交屋時點。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 建喬營造股份有限公司 皇鼎 100% 轉投資子公司，年報揭露承包財星科技廣場、立人名邸、靜心園、皇鼎森琚、台通智慧科技園區、亞太科技中心、皇鼎心莊等工程；未查得台股上市櫃代號。
  • 福祐機電工程股份有限公司 年報契約揭露為台通智慧科技園區水電工程承包商；公司登記資料顯示為未上市櫃公司。
  • 台通光電股份有限公司 8011 台通智慧科技園區新工段合建案土地所有權人之一，台通為台股掛牌公司，與皇鼎為合建分屋契約相對人。
  • 慶通股份有限公司 台通智慧科技園區新工段合建案土地所有權人之一；年報列為合建契約相對人，未查得台股上市櫃代號。
  • 臺灣士林地方法院 2024 年主要進貨供應商之一，推定為土地取得相關來源；非公司、無股票代號。
  • 國內外建材供應商 年報稱建築材料慎選國內外優良供應商，主要大宗建材多由上市櫃公司供應，但未具名揭露，故不填個別 stock_id。
Downstream
  • 不特定住宅購屋客戶 皇鼎住宅與住商大樓銷售對象多為不特定自然人，年報明載最近二年度無固定主要銷貨客戶。
  • 不特定企業與廠辦買方/承租方 工業廠房、廠辦與商業大樓之出售或出租對象多為不特定公司，主要應用為辦公室、廠辦大樓與企業擴充/舊換新需求。
  • 線上訂房平台、旅行社、企業客戶與自由行旅客 飯店業務下游涵蓋 OTA、旅行社、企業商務客與旅客；年報以類別揭露，未具名固定主要客戶。
  • 管理委員會與既有住戶 完工交屋後提供售後服務並協助成立管理委員會，屬房地產開發後端服務對象。

Competitors

Sources（9）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.