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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 2023 燁輝. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=2023
2023
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 燁輝 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 28th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -2.6%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 82th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 77th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 4.7% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -5% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 第一金-新興 has accumulated 30,459 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 花旗環球 peaked at 268 lots, has sold 28%, 193 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.97pp, mid holders -9, retail -0.97pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -8,436 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 第一金-新興 +30,459
- 兆豐-北高雄 +28,009
- 美林 +1,256
- 中國信託-嘉義 +874
- 群益金鼎-海山 +707
- 兆豐證券 +705
Distributing
- 花旗環球 193 left
- 兆豐-台南 168 left
- 永豐金-市政 88 left
- (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 49 left
- 元大-竹東 46 left
- 富邦-羅東 79 left
Desks
- 摩根大通 -9,640
- 美商高盛 -8,116
- 凱基-台北 -4,379
- 元大證券 -2,470
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 488 | -7.5% | -12% | 15.4% | -7.1% |
| 20-40 | 236 | +1.4% | -3.6% | 36% | -3.9% |
| 40-60 | 161 | +78.6% | +134.4% | 55.3% | +23.5% |
| 60-80 You are here | 156 | +137.8% | +139.7% | 82.7% | +78.4% |
| 80-100 | 196 | +65.9% | +67% | 98.5% | +34.9% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 37.2, at the 76.6th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 133 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 75.5%, win rate 82.7%, beat the market by 53.5%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
14 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.45%, win rate 42.9%, beating the market by +8.71 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
46 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.64%, win rate 53.7%, beating the market by +2.64 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
71 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.98%, win rate 53.5%, beating the market by -2.15 pts on average.
What does 燁輝 do? Company profile
Overview
2023 對應證券為燁輝企業股份有限公司普通股，為台灣證券交易所上市公司，產業別為鋼鐵工業，上市日期為1995-07-28，成立日期為1978-04-14。公司總部/高雄本廠位於高雄市橋頭區芋寮里芋寮路369號；董事長林義守，總經理張振武，發言人田文中。官方公司概要顯示2025年平均員工人數1557人、實收資本額新台幣184.12億元；Goodinfo 2026頁面亦顯示資本額184.12億元、發行股數1,841,240,214股。主要股東名單截至114年4月21日，前十大包括燁聯鋼鐵16.51%、偉喬投資開發11.25%、利輝開發4.34%、偉鈜投資開發3.98%、興隆投資開發3.64%、義大醫療財團法人3.39%、國喬投資開發3.38%、聯碩投資開發3.27%、大慶汽車工業2.83%、燁茂實業2.66%。公司屬義联集團體系，100%轉投資鑫陽鋼鐵與燁輝(中國)科技材料；鑫陽主要做鋼管，燁輝(中國)位於江蘇常熟，生產酸洗、冷軋、鍍鋅/鍍鋁鋅、彩塗烤漆與汽車用鋼材等。
Business
燁輝是單軋型鍍面/烤漆鋼捲專業製造商，核心商業模式為採購熱軋鋼捲等原料，經酸洗、冷軋、熱浸鍍鋅/鍍5%鋁鋅/鍍55%鋁鋅/鍍鋅鋁鎂、彩塗烤漆等製程，銷售鋼捲、鋼板與相關加工材料；工程事業則提供鋼結構、運搬機械與天車設備之設計、製造、安裝服務。官方資料列示主要產品為酸洗鋼捲、冷軋鋼捲、熱浸鍍鋅/鍍5%鋁鋅/鍍55%鋁鋅/鍍鋅鋁鎂鋼捲、烤漆鋼捲、鋼結構、運搬機械與天車設備；台灣廠具二條酸洗線、四部冷軋機、四條熱浸鍍鋅線、三條彩塗烤漆線。用途涵蓋雲端/AI伺服器機殼與機櫃支架、數位機上盒、車用零件、空調風管、背光模組背板、太陽光電支架、溫室棚架、樓承板、屋頂/外牆建材、鋼結構與公共建設。近期法說與新聞指出2025年前三季外銷比重約66%、內銷34%，利基產品占比突破52%，其中鍍面利基比重41.4%、烤漆利基比重71.2%；此數字屬媒體轉述法說會資訊，非直接財報分項。營收區域遍及中國大陸、東南亞、中東、美國、加拿大、歐盟、澳洲等市場，終端客戶包括建材、家電、汽車、電子零組件、電腦/伺服器機殼、太陽能支架與鋼構工程供應鏈。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年展望偏向「景氣築底後溫和復甦、但高波動」：一、產業面，worldsteel 2026年4月短期展望預估全球鋼材需求2026年僅成長0.3%至17.24億噸、2027年成長2.2%至17.62億噸；OECD Steel Outlook 2026則指出至2030年全球鋼需年均成長約0.9%，且產能利用率可能由2025年約76%降至2028年約74%或更低，意味鋼鐵業仍有供過於求與價格壓力。二、公司成長動能在產品組合升級：利基產品占比已超過一般產品，MAXITRA鋅鋁鎂與MAXITRA color烤漆產品主打耐蝕、耐酸鹼、切口自修復、成形與耐磨特性，應用於太陽能支架、嚴苛腐蝕環境、BIPV、AI伺服器機殼/機櫃支架、資訊網通、抗菌風管等；2024與2025年太陽能支架鋼材出貨量據媒體轉述各突破10萬公噸。三、地區需求方面，印度、東南亞、中東等新興市場與美國製造/基建投資可支撐外銷，但中國鋼材外溢、亞洲需求偏弱、歐美貿易保護與鋼鋁關稅會壓抑價格與接單能見度。四、成本與合規方面，熱軋鋼捲、鐵礦砂、煤、鋅鋁金屬、塗料、電價、匯率均會影響毛利；EU CBAM自2026起要求進口商蒐集經驗證排放資料、2027年開始憑證申報/繳交，對外銷歐盟鋼品形成碳盤查與成本壓力，但燁輝已推動EPD、UL2809再生材料驗證、低VOC塗料、低碳排鋼材供應鏈等，若能把低碳與高規格產品轉化為客戶採購門檻，可能提升中長期差異化。五、主要風險為全球產能過剩、鋼價易跌難漲、關稅與反傾銷調查、外銷高比重下的匯率與運費波動、碳成本、能源成本、客戶庫存調整、利基產品放量速度不如預期。
Supply Chain
- 中國鋼鐵股份有限公司 2002 台灣主要熱軋鋼捲與鋼材上游供應商；燁輝沿革資料顯示1992年正式成為中鋼熱軋鋼捲客戶。中鋼同時也是鍍鋅鋼捲等部分品項同業/競爭者。
- 中鴻鋼鐵股份有限公司 2014 熱軋、冷軋與鋼品供應鏈上游/同業，可能為熱軋鋼捲與鋼材市場供應來源之一；具體採購比例未公開確認。
- 燁聯鋼鐵股份有限公司 義联集團關係企業與燁輝最大股東；屬鋼鐵上游/關係企業，是否為燁輝主要原料供應商及供應比例未公開確認。
- 鋅、鋁、鎂合金與表面處理藥劑/塗料供應商 鍍鋅、鍍鋁鋅、鍍鋅鋁鎂與烤漆製程所需原物料；公開資料未具名主要供應商，成本受國際金屬、化工原料與能源價格影響。
- 鑫陽鋼鐵股份有限公司 燁輝100%轉投資子公司，主要生產API套管及線管、黑鋼管、鍍鋅鋼管、結構用鋼管等，是集團下游鋼管加工/銷售平台，未上市。
- 鴻海精密工業股份有限公司 2317 MoneyDJ轉述法說資料指出燁輝研發抗腐蝕太陽能支架產品，供應鴻海/富士康太陽能部門承攬太陽能電廠材料；是否為持續性直接客戶需再以公司公告確認。
- 裕隆汽車製造股份有限公司 2201 官方用途範例列示裕隆汽車廠使用PVDF烤漆鋼板，屬終端應用案例；未必代表直接銷售客戶。
- 日月光投資控股股份有限公司 3711 官方用途範例列示日月光中壢廠房抗靜電無塵室使用抗靜電烤漆鋼板，屬高科技廠房終端應用案例；未必代表直接銷售客戶。
- 長榮航太科技股份有限公司 2645 官方用途範例列示長榮航太第三飛機維修棚廠屋頂/側牆使用PVDF烤漆鋼板，屬終端應用案例；未必代表直接銷售客戶。
- Whirlpool、Fisher & Paykel、Sharp、Panasonic等家電/電子品牌 MoneyDJ資料列示燁輝曾供應家電用鍍烤鋼品並進入部分國際家電廠供應鏈；多為外國上市或未上市公司，台股無對應代號。
Competitors
- 盛餘股份有限公司 2029 台灣鍍面鋼鐵與烤漆鋼捲主要競爭者；MoneyDJ資料指出盛餘為台灣第三大鍍面鋼鐵廠，僅次於燁輝、裕鐵兩大主力單軋廠。
- 裕鐵企業股份有限公司 鍍鋅/鍍面鋼品主要同業，非台股上市櫃公司或未確認上市櫃代號。
- 中國鋼鐵股份有限公司 2002 上游一貫鋼廠，同時在鍍鋅鋼捲等品項與燁輝同業競爭。
- 中鴻鋼鐵股份有限公司 2014 熱軋、冷軋與鍍面相關鋼品供應鏈同業，亦可能為上游材料來源。
- 美亞鋼管廠股份有限公司 2020 鋼管產品同業；與燁輝轉投資鑫陽鋼鐵在鋼管市場具競爭關係。
- 高興昌鋼鐵股份有限公司 2008 鋼管與鋼鐵加工同業；與燁輝/鑫陽部分下游鋼管品項競爭。
- 華新麗華股份有限公司 1605 鋼線、特殊鋼與不鏽鋼相關同業；MoneyDJ列為鋼管相關競爭同業之一。
- 中國鋼鐵結構股份有限公司 2013 鋼結構工程同業；與燁輝工程事業部在鋼結構市場部分重疊。
Sources（16）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.