Skip to main content
Free trial

Ask AI to review this stock

Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.

Tell your AI:

Help me set up FinLab and analyze 2501 國建. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=2501

No install, open FinLab Studio

2501

國建 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 國建 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 85Quality 81Growth 30Momentum 69Chips 96

Is 國建 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 79th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.8%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 2th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 13th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 16.8% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.77
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 富邦-南屯 holds 6,515 lots
  • sellers have 1,898 lots left, ~36 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +18% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 富邦-南屯 has accumulated 6,515 lots since the start (sold 20%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 13,696 lots, has sold 47%, 7,320 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.65pp, mid holders +14, retail -1.85pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -957 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
富邦-南屯港商麥格理法銀巴黎國泰證券元大證券永豐金-匯立
Distributing
美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利台新-建北凱基-台北摩根大通華南永昌
Desks
own scale
國票-長城國票-南崁康和宏遠-館前
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 富邦-南屯 +6,515
    sold 20%· still adding
  • 港商麥格理 +5,936
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 法銀巴黎 +4,563
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +3,724
    sold 13%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +3,389
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-匯立 +3,280
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 7,320 left
    sold 47%· paused recently
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 5,274 left
    sold 30%· paused recently
  • 台新-建北 813 left
    sold 81%· ~2 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 1,340 left
    sold 64%· paused recently
  • 摩根大通 915 left
    sold 69%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌 328 left
    sold 79%· ~11 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 國票-長城 -9,890
    unclassified
  • 國票-南崁 -2,544
    unclassified
  • 康和 -1,955
    unclassified
  • 宏遠-館前 -1,919
    unclassified
Still selling 1,898 lots ~36 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +22,263 absorbed / -4,931 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

27 historical occurrences (since 2010-01-19)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 57.7%, Sample 26, Median +1.06%, Excess +1.25%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 68%, Sample 25, Median +5.31%, Excess +8.9%, Beat mkt rate 60%；120-day: Win 60%, Sample 25, Median +3.29%, Excess +6.77%, Beat mkt rate 48%

120 days after: historical avg +12.42%

20-day +1.64%
60-day +12.06%
120-day +12.42%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.7%
68%
60%
Sample
26
25
25
Median
+1.06%
+5.31%
+3.29%
Excess
+1.25%
+8.9%
+6.77%
Beat mkt rate
50%
60%
48%

Over 25 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.42%, beat the market by 6.77 pts; win rate 60%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here289+8.5% +4.6% 59.9% -1%
20-40 1269+13.1% +4% 55.7% -5%
40-60 735+14.1% +12.7% 70.6% -5.3%
60-80 568-3.7% -4.3% 42.6% -21.9%
80-100 166-9.5% -6% 4.2% -8.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 6.98, at the 13.1th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+13.6%
Win rate 65.6% Excess +2.5%
553d
+6.2%
Win rate 52% Excess -3.3%
818d
-3.1%
Win rate 36.8% Excess -11%
250d
60-day momentum down
+5.7%
Win rate 45.2% Excess -1.4%
588d
+2.4%
Win rate 58.4% Excess -8%
639d
-1.1%
Win rate 40.1% Excess -0.8%
299d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 553 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 13.6%, win rate 65.6%, beat the market by 2.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

120 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.65%, win rate 57.3%, beating the market by +2.19 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

73 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.59%, win rate 53.5%, beating the market by +0.75 pts on average.

What does 國建 do? Company profile

建材營造／營建業／不動產開發 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

國泰建設股份有限公司，簡稱國建，股票代號2501，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立日期依公司官網為民國53年9月14日（1964年9月14日），上市日期依證交所個股資訊為1967年10月28日；總部位於台北市敦化南路二段218號2樓。實收資本額為新台幣11,595,610,590元，流通普通股1,159,561,059股。董事長為張清櫆；總經理於2026年5月6日由李虹明異動為郭文鎧，郭文鎧亦接任永續長。公司發言人為林清樑。員工規模依113年年報，截至2025年3月30日為172人。主要股東依113年年報包括國泰人壽保險股份有限公司職工退休基金管理委員會持股24.84%、萬寶開發股份有限公司17.60%；前十大股東另包括霖園投資、國泰人壽、邱念邦、合昕實業、台灣人壽、萬達投資、震昇實業及外資託管帳戶等。國建屬霖園／國泰集團體系，具長期品牌、土地開發、工程管理與售後服務資源。

Business

國建為不動產開發與營建公司，主要業務為興建國宅與商業大樓出租出售、受託辦理都市計畫與山坡地等規劃設計顧問，以及其他相關事業投資。產品以住宅大樓、透天或高級住宅、店面、商辦、綜合商業大樓為主，近年推案區域涵蓋台北、新北、桃園、台中、台南、高雄等都會區。依113年年報，2024年合併營業比重為房地銷售收入52.92%、工程合約收入23.73%、勞務提供收入19.93%、租賃收入2.38%、其他營業收入1.04%。公司商業模式以取得土地、合建、都更、危老、公辦都更、捷運聯開、地上權或BOT等方式取得案源，完成規劃、設計、銷售、營造管理、交屋及售後服務後認列收入；營建工程多委由專業營造廠商承作，主要供應商之一為關係企業三井工程，2024年占進貨淨額34.57%。主要客戶為一般購屋大眾及企業客戶，年報揭露最近二年度無單一銷貨客戶占比超過10%。轉投資與關係事業包含國泰健康管理、國泰商旅／飯店事業、三井工程等，並與日商三井不動產在部分住宅、商場、飯店或複合開發案有合作。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年已揭露全年合併營收約242.9億元，歸屬母公司淨利約32.8億元，EPS 2.83元，較2024年明顯成長，主因部分高毛利都更案及建案完工交屋入帳。2026年第一季EPS為1.21元，主因2025年遞延交屋個案如國泰蒔美、國泰美禾、國泰UNi Park等完工交屋挹注。2026年公司預計完工交屋台北「國泰悠境」、新北「國泰．旭」、台南「國泰磐耘」等3案，合計總銷約90億元且媒體報導稱均已完銷；同年預計推出4個新案，總銷約230億元，包括已推出高雄「國泰明誠」，下半年視市況評估台北、台中、台南案，並稱北中南高仍有約400億元推案儲備。2025至2028年成長動能主要來自：品牌建商在自住與首購市場的相對優勢、都更與危老案源、精華區與重劃區土地儲備、多元開發模式、三井工程垂直整合、飯店與健康管理等轉投資事業，以及綠建築、節能減碳、智慧建築與數位轉型。產業趨勢上，央行信用管制後房市短期以價穩量縮或價穩量穩為主，剛性自住需求仍是主要支撐；長期受都市更新、危老重建、人口與就業集中於都會區、AI與出口產業帶動所得與商辦需求影響。主要風險為央行與政府房市管制、銀行不動產授信水位、利率與通膨、買方觀望、土地取得成本上升、營建原物料與工資高檔、交屋認列時點波動、都更整合時程不確定、政策與地緣政治風險。2027至2028年具體案量與財務數字尚未取得公司正式預測，僅能依土地儲備與營建認列週期推估營運將高度受個案完工交屋排程影響。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 三井工程股份有限公司 未上市關係企業及主要營造供應商；113年年報揭露2024年對國建進貨淨額4,305,093千元，占34.57%，主要為在建工程款等。
  • 地主、土地仲介、國有財產署及各縣市政府 土地及開發案源來源；公司透過公開標售、公開招商、公辦都更、合建、都市更新、捷運聯開、地上權、BOT及土地仲介取得土地或開發權，非單一掛牌公司。
  • 金融機構 提供建築融資、土地融資、購屋貸款與資金調度；年報將資金供應金融機構列為營建業上游之一，未揭露單一主要金融供應商。
  • 營造廠、建材及原物料供應商 水泥、鋼筋、混凝土、機電、裝修及施工承包等；除三井工程外，年報未揭露其他單一供應商名稱，故不臆測個別公司。
Downstream
  • 一般購屋大眾 住宅建案主要終端買方；年報列為下游，且揭露無單一主要銷貨客戶。
  • 企業公司 商辦、店面、商業空間及租賃產品的終端客戶；年報列為下游，未揭露單一主要企業客戶。
  • 三井不動產集團 日本上市不動產集團，與國建於部分住宅、商場與複合開發案合作；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 國泰商旅股份有限公司 未上市關係企業，屬國建轉投資飯店事業，與不動產資產開發及營運形成下游應用。
  • 國泰健康管理顧問股份有限公司 未上市關係企業，屬健康管理轉投資事業，與國建多角化營運相關。

Competitors

Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.