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2548

華固 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 華固 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 84Quality 78Growth 100Momentum 42Chips 3

Is 華固 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~85% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.4%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 4th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 49th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -11.2% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 9203.5%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.39
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 玉山證券 holds 2,900 lots
  • sellers have 2,126 lots left, ~23 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +0% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 玉山證券 has accumulated 2,900 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 6,030 lots, has sold 60%, 2,441 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -6.29pp, mid holders +7, retail +5.11pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -3,218 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
玉山證券元大-和平法銀巴黎永豐金-台南港商麥格理元大-忠孝
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利摩根大通華南永昌新加坡商瑞銀美林彰銀
Desks
own scale
宏遠證券元大證券台新-台北(牛牛牛)亞證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 玉山證券 +2,900
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-和平 +1,513
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 法銀巴黎 +1,292
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-台南 +995
    sold 0%
  • 港商麥格理 +942
    sold 11%
  • 元大-忠孝 +934
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 2,441 left
    sold 60%· paused recently
  • 摩根大通 1,825 left
    sold 67%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌 1,505 left
    sold 43%· ~19 sessions to clear
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 1,430 left
    sold 45%· paused recently
  • 美林 249 left
    sold 79%· paused recently
  • 彰銀 289 left
    sold 55%· ~23 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 宏遠證券 -6,154
    unclassified
  • 元大證券 -4,603
    unclassified
  • 台新-台北 -3,419
    unclassified
  • (牛牛牛)亞證券 -2,644
    unclassified
Still selling 2,126 lots ~23 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +4,779 absorbed / -1,503 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -2,419 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 9203.55%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

128 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 54.5%, Sample 112, Median +0.44%, Excess -0.23%, Beat mkt rate 48.2%；60-day: Win 70.9%, Sample 110, Median +4.2%, Excess +2.11%, Beat mkt rate 50.9%；120-day: Win 65.4%, Sample 107, Median +3.66%, Excess +5.7%, Beat mkt rate 55.1%

120 days after: historical avg +11.78%

20-day +1.08%
60-day +6.17%
120-day +11.78%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.5%
70.9%
65.4%
Sample
112
110
107
Median
+0.44%
+4.2%
+3.66%
Excess
-0.23%
+2.11%
+5.7%
Beat mkt rate
48.2%
50.9%
55.1%

Over 107 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 11.78%, beat the market by 5.7 pts; win rate 65.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 476-0.7% +2.5% 53.6% -19.5%
20-40 454+15.7% +9.9% 82.4% +1.3%
40-60 You are here497+15.8% +12.1% 94% -1%
60-80 444+11.6% +9.2% 87.4% 0%
80-100 951+20.1% +20.1% 83.6% -1.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 8.42, at the 48.7th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-2.4%
Win rate 44.9% Excess -11.5%
401d
+5.4%
Win rate 80.4% Excess 0%
601d
+15.4%
Win rate 82.9% Excess +5%
979d
60-day momentum down
+1.8%
Win rate 55.6% Excess -9.5%
295d
Now
+5.6%
Win rate 73.9% Excess +1.5%
257d
+5.9%
Win rate 67.5% Excess -6.5%
409d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 257 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 5.6%, win rate 73.9%, beat the market by 1.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

38 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.97%, win rate 56.8%, beating the market by -0.96 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

66 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.23%, win rate 60%, beating the market by -2.3 pts on average.

What does 華固 do? Company profile

建材營造業／建設開發 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2548 對應證券為華固建設股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於 1989-04-06，公開發行日 1997-11-17，上櫃日 2000-07-19，上市日 2002-08-26；總部位於台北市信義路四段456號7樓。董事長為鍾榮昌，總經理為洪嘉昇，發言人為財務長劉若梅。實收資本額約新台幣31.97億元，已發行普通股約319,718,697股。114年度年報揭露 2025 年員工人數 83 人，2026-03-31 為 82 人。113年度年報揭露主要股東包括鍾山投資股份有限公司 7.09%、新聯陽投資股份有限公司 5.31%、台灣人壽保險股份有限公司 4.58%、長庚醫療財團法人 2.25%、元大臺灣價值高息ETF專戶 1.79%、黃奕睿 1.72%、挪威中央銀行投資專戶 1.24%、先進星光基金系列基金先進總合國際股票指數基金 1.17%、梵加德新興市場股票指數基金 1.10%、天松投資股份有限公司 1.08%。

Business

公司主要業務為委託營造廠商興建國民住宅、商業辦公大樓、廠辦、一般工業用地廠房與倉庫，並進行出租、出售、室內裝潢及建材機械買賣與進出口。年報揭露營業收入 100% 來自委託營造廠商興建國民住宅及工業廠房出售出租業務；商品項目包括集合住宅大樓、商辦大樓、廠辦大樓、店舖、停車位等。商業模式以土地開發、規劃設計、行銷企劃、推案銷售、委外營建施工、完工交屋、售後服務與資產管理為主，銷售方式以預售、邊建邊售、先建後售與自建自售並行。2025 年主要營收認列來源為華固大安學府、華固得月及華固中央置地三案；114年度合併營收新台幣18,238,702仟元，年增約153%，稅後淨利3,241,406仟元，EPS 10.15元。2025 年主要銷貨客戶為陽明海運，銷貨金額11,009,224仟元，占銷貨淨額60.37%，推測主要與華固中央置地等商辦銷售交屋相關；其他客戶多為住宅買方或未揭露交易對象。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年華固新推華固創滙園區、華固芙心、華固譽誠、華固四季滙，且華固芙心、華固譽誠與持續銷售中的吾雙表現較佳；華固創滙園區及華固四季滙銷售穩定。公司稱土地儲備仍持有上千億可推案量，114年度年報另指出目前土地庫存可推案量超過1,200億元，可支撐未來6至8年營運。2026 年展望方面，公司預期央行選擇性信用管制與較高利率仍壓抑購屋意願，特別是第二戶以上與高價住宅市場；雙北市表現相對穩定，中南部因過去漲幅大及交屋潮需保守看待。2026 年營運重點為住宅與辦公雙箭齊發、台北與台中分進合擊、商辦與廠辦為行銷首要重點、強化都更開發、控制負債比與自有資金週轉率。已推案中，華固上文林總銷約61億元，2026年1月完工交屋；華固一莊總銷約41億元，預定2026年10月完工交屋；華固時代置地總銷約75億元，2026年2月完工並採先建後售。2027 年主要完工動能包括華固頂滙總銷約108億元、預定2027年7月完工交屋，華固豐滙總銷約45億元、預定2027年10月完工交屋，華固慕川總銷約50億元、預定2027年10月完工交屋。2028 年主要完工動能包括華固織幸總銷約33億元、預定2028年5月完工交屋，吾雙總銷約67億元、預定2028年10月完工交屋，華固創滙園區總銷約310億元、預定2028年10月完工。成長動能來自雙北精華地段都更、商辦與廠辦需求、AI與資通訊產業帶動商用不動產需求、台中以北優質住宅用地布局、綠建築與智慧建築研發、數位行銷與大數據應用。主要風險為央行選擇性信用管制、房貸利率與放款集中度限制、土地取得困難、都更整合時間長、營建工資與建材成本上漲、人力短缺、高價住宅與第二戶市場買氣受壓、少子化與人口負成長、台中以南交屋潮及轉售供給、兩岸與全球政經不確定性。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 品興營造股份有限公司 主要營造供應商及子公司；114年度進貨金額5,360,411仟元，占進貨淨額62.15%，承攬華固得月、大安學府、一莊、上文林、中央置地、時代置地、頂滙、慕川、豐滙、吾雙、織幸、創滙園區、芙心、四季滙、譽誠等多案新建工程。未查得台股上市櫃代號。
  • 聖暉工程科技股份有限公司 5536 工程承攬商；年報列為華固得月案、華固一莊案水電消防空調等工程合約對象，為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 大陸工程股份有限公司 工程承攬商；年報列為華固大安學府案、華固上文林案、華固中央置地案水電、消防、空調等工程合約對象。大陸工程本身未上市櫃。
  • 東鋼鋼結構股份有限公司 鋼構材料供應商；年報列為華固創滙園區案鋼構材料工程合約對象。公司未查得獨立上市櫃代號。
  • 建源工程企業有限公司 水電消防空調工程供應商；年報列為華固頂滙案水電消防空調工程合約對象，未上市櫃。
  • 土地地主、市政府、國有土地與都更權利人 房地產開發上游核心投入為土地；來源包括私有地主出售或合建、市政府或公有土地標售地上權、公辦都更與市中心都更整合。非台股掛牌公司。
  • 鋼筋、水泥、磚石、室內設備與綠建材供應商 建築材料與設備供應商；年報僅揭露類別，未逐一揭露主要公司名稱，故不填 stock_id。
Downstream
  • 陽明海運股份有限公司 2609 114年度主要銷貨客戶，銷貨金額11,009,224仟元，占銷貨淨額60.37%；屬台股上市公司，推測為商辦或辦公資產買方。
  • 住宅自住與換屋客戶 集合住宅大樓買方；公司指出市場以自住型首購及換屋客層為主，並受新青安、房貸條件與央行信用管制影響。個人客戶非上市櫃公司。
  • 企業辦公、策略性產業與廠辦使用者 商辦與廠辦下游客戶，受 AI 供應鏈、資通訊業出口、ESG 與舊換新需求帶動；除已揭露陽明海運外，其他客戶未完整揭露。
  • 代銷、仲介與自建自售通路 房地產銷售通路；年報指出下游主要為代銷及仲介商，近年仲介店頭通路、自建自售、邊建邊售與數位行銷比重提高，未揭露具體上市櫃公司。

Competitors

Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.