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2617

台航 Shipping As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 台航 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 90Quality 72Growth 76Momentum 40Chips 88

Is 台航 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~97% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.6%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 5th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 22th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 9.2% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 33.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.53
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 美商高盛 holds 1,782 lots
  • sellers have 652 lots left, ~39 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -4% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 1,782 lots since the start (sold 3%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 2,970 lots, has sold 82%, 538 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.61pp, mid holders +7, retail -1.36pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -571 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美商高盛元大-樹林富邦證券美好-基隆陽信-石牌摩根大通
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利元大證券新光國泰-敦南華南永昌-虎尾第一金-員林
Desks
own scale
群益金鼎-台南元大-北投凱基-台北統一
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美商高盛 +1,782
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 元大-樹林 +763
    sold 9%· still adding
  • 富邦證券 +578
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美好-基隆 +555
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 陽信-石牌 +520
    sold 0%
  • 摩根大通 +468
    sold 13%· still adding

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 538 left
    sold 82%· paused recently
  • 元大證券 230 left
    sold 64%· ~18 sessions to clear
  • 新光 147 left
    sold 56%· ~11 sessions to clear
  • 國泰-敦南 66 left
    sold 48%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 華南永昌-虎尾 50 left
    sold 52%· paused recently
  • 第一金-員林 56 left
    sold 37%· paused recently

Desks

  • 群益金鼎-台南 -651
    unclassified
  • 元大-北投 -565
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -468
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 統一 -267
    unclassified
Still selling 652 lots ~39 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,284 absorbed / -522 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -76 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 33.3%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

51 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 42.6%, Sample 47, Median -0.89%, Excess -0.53%, Beat mkt rate 38.3%；60-day: Win 46.8%, Sample 47, Median -0.49%, Excess -1.92%, Beat mkt rate 48.9%；120-day: Win 40.4%, Sample 47, Median -6.47%, Excess +0.75%, Beat mkt rate 44.7%

120 days after: historical avg +2.49%

20-day -1.28%
60-day -1.46%
120-day +2.49%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
42.6%
46.8%
40.4%
Sample
47
47
47
Median
-0.89%
-0.49%
-6.47%
Excess
-0.53%
-1.92%
+0.75%
Beat mkt rate
38.3%
48.9%
44.7%

Over 47 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.49%, beat the market by 0.75 pts; win rate 40.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 798+5.2% -1.6% 46.9% -15.7%
20-40 You are here448+57.3% +15.8% 79% +18.5%
40-60 265+16.5% +12.9% 62.3% +4.5%
60-80 160+35.9% +53% 61.9% +27.8%
80-100 1107-1.4% -6.5% 43.4% -12%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 9.11, at the 21.9th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+0.2%
Win rate 44.9% Excess -13.1%
646d
+48%
Win rate 79.4% Excess +30.9%
296d
+2.6%
Win rate 30.3% Excess -4.1%
512d
60-day momentum down
Now
+6.9%
Win rate 67.8% Excess -3.7%
531d
-2.3%
Win rate 27.8% Excess -0.8%
212d
+2.3%
Win rate 48.4% Excess -3.8%
701d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 531 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6.9%, win rate 67.8%, lagged the market by 3.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +10.94%, win rate 47.1%, beating the market by +7.45 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

62 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.24%, win rate 61.3%, beating the market by -1.18 pts on average.

What does 台航 do? Company profile

航運業／乾散貨航運、客貨輪、港勤拖輪與船舶代營 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

台灣航業股份有限公司，簡稱台航，股票代號2617，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司設立於1946年7月1日，1949年4月改組為股份有限公司，1998年6月民營化並於1998年6月24日掛牌上市。總部位於台北市中正區濟南路二段29號。依2026年6月公司官網與重大訊息，董事長為魏健宏，於2026年6月12日接任；總經理為陳建州代理。實收資本額約新台幣4,172,944,870元，已發行普通股417,294,487股。104人力銀行揭露員工人數約630人，此數字非公司年報逐項核對之正式員工統計，應視為參考。主要股東名冊資料日為2025年4月12日：交通部持股110,436,379股、26.46%；陽明海運股份有限公司持股70,793,243股、16.96%；運旺投資股份有限公司持股10,500,000股、2.52%；中科國際物流股份有限公司持股4,758,000股、1.14%；其餘前十大股東含自然人、保管銀行專戶、全球人壽及陽信銀行等。公司另持有陽明海運股票，2025年業外收益受陽明股利挹注。

Business

台航核心業務為乾散貨航運，並兼營高雄至澎湖客貨輪、港勤拖輪與油輪代營。依公司2025年9月法說會，2025年上半年營收結構約為散裝79.07%、港勤8.11%、客運7.31%、代營3.92%、租賃及其他1.59%；依2025年度年報摘要，114年度產品組合為遠洋航線3,448,170千元、80.19%；港勤業務334,110千元、7.77%；沿海航線288,960千元、6.72%；代管操作業務156,090千元、3.63%；其他72,670千元、1.69%。散裝航運以23艘乾散貨船承攬計時傭船或論程傭船，貨載以鐵礦砂、煤炭、穀物、鋁礬土、水泥與其他大宗物資為主，收入受BDI與Panamax、Supramax、Handysize等船型租金影響。公司採固定費率、浮動指數或半浮動且設上下限等合約配置，以降低運價波動。客貨輪業務為澎湖輪，2023年9月起取代臺華輪，定期航行高雄至澎湖，載運旅客、車輛與民生物資。港勤業務包含台中港4艘拖輪與觀塘工業港7艘拖輪／交通船，主要為台灣中油LNG船靠離碼頭提供拖帶與補給。代營業務為鴻運、盛運、德運3艘油輪，負責台灣中油油料運輸及裝卸。商業模式上，散裝航運為全球市場報價與合約傭船模式，港勤、代營與澎湖輪則較偏長約或公共運輸服務，提供較穩定收入。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年乾散裝市場上半年受中國鐵礦砂庫存偏高、房地產疲弱、美國關稅政策造成製造業與大宗商品需求不確定等因素壓抑；下半年因關稅談判逐步明朗、中國提前進口巴西大豆、印尼煤炭價格管制解除與中國煤炭進口增加，運價明顯反彈，但全年平均運價仍低於2024年。2026至2028年的主要成長動能包括：一、台航船隊年輕化與節能化，2026年第二季已有2艘4萬載重噸級散裝新船規劃交船營運，另有2艘6.4萬載重噸級散裝新船預計於2028年第3、4季交付；二、中小型乾散貨船在新船訂單占比仍相對健康、CII、EU ETS、FuelEU Maritime等環保規範促使船速下降的背景下，可用船噸供給成長受抑；三、紅海危機若延續，船舶繞航將拉長噸海浬並支撐運價；四、若烏俄戰爭緩和，黑海貿易恢復與基建重建可能帶動乾散貨需求；五、印度、東南亞工業化、鋼鐵與建材需求，以及中國西非鋁礬土、幾內亞Simandou鐵礦砂等長航程貨流，可能提升噸海浬。主要風險包括：中國煤炭自給率提升、內蒙煤炭陸運增加、再生能源比重提高使煤炭海運需求下降；美中關稅與船舶港口費政策變化；全球經濟成長放緩與高油價壓抑需求；中東、紅海、黑海等地緣政治風險同時可能推升運價與成本；環保法規帶來資本支出、船速限制與合規成本；散裝航運本質高度循環，BDI與各船型租金波動會直接影響獲利。公司策略為持續汰舊換新、建造節能船、強化船舶操作維護、與租家共同面對碳費及合規要求，並維持港勤、代營與澎湖輪等較穩定業務。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台灣國際造船股份有限公司 2208 國內造船供應商；MoneyDJ資料提及台航曾向國內台船下單，屬船舶資本支出供應鏈。
  • 大島造船株式會社 日本造船廠；MoneyDJ資料提及台航透過子公司向日本大島造船訂購船舶，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 今治造船株式會社 日本造船廠；MoneyDJ資料提及台航透過子公司向日本今治造船訂購船舶，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 內海造船株式會社 日本造船廠；澎湖輪由日本內海造船建造，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 燃油、港口、裝卸與船舶維修服務供應商 航運營運成本項目包含燃油、港口費、貨物裝卸費與維修保養；公開資料未逐一揭露供應商名稱。
Downstream
  • 台灣中油股份有限公司 主要港勤與代營客戶；台航為中油LNG船於台中港與觀塘工業港提供拖帶補給，並代營油輪負責油料運輸及裝卸，未上市。
  • 交通部航港局／澎湖縣政府及高雄－澎湖旅客、車輛與貨主 澎湖輪公共運輸與客貨車輛運送需求來源；屬政府與終端旅客／貨主，非上市櫃公司。
  • 國內外鋼鐵、礦商、電力與航運業客戶 乾散貨傭船與大宗物資運輸需求來源；公司公開資料多以客戶類型揭露，未完整逐一揭露公司名單。
  • 陽明海運股份有限公司 2609 主要股東且為航運同業關係企業；台航持有陽明海運股票並受其股利收入影響，但陽明是否為台航主要營運客戶未由本次資料確認。

Competitors

Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.