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2634

漢翔 Shipping As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal

Foreign buy

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 漢翔 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 漢翔 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 40th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.4%.
Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 80th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 88th percentile.
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 9.0% of volume (net buy).
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.33

BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

Distribution to retail — bearish
國泰-敦南 holds 2,260 lots
sellers have 1,850 lots left, ~46 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -15% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 國泰-敦南 has accumulated 2,260 lots since the start (sold 5%), still adding.
Main distributor 美林 peaked at 4,871 lots, has sold 84%, 791 left, paused recently.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.17pp, mid holders -5, retail +2.17pp — drifting down to retail.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -3,811 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

國泰-敦南花旗環球元大-板橋三民國泰-館前台灣摩根士丹利富邦-和美

Distributing

美林玉山-新莊富邦-南京美好新光元大-萬華

Desks

own scale

摩根大通元大證券美商高盛富邦證券

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

國泰-敦南 +2,260

sold 5%· still adding
花旗環球 +1,154

sold 0%· still adding
元大-板橋三民 +640

sold 3%
國泰-館前 +614

sold 0%· still adding
台灣摩根士丹利 +600

sold 0%· still adding
富邦-和美 +565

sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

美林 791 left

sold 84%· paused recently
玉山-新莊 297 left

sold 69%· ~14 sessions to clear
富邦-南京 292 left

sold 53%· ~9 sessions to clear
美好 265 left

sold 47%· paused recently
新光 178 left

sold 61%· paused recently
元大-萬華 242 left

sold 39%· ~35 sessions to clear

Desks

摩根大通 -7,633

hedge desk · will cover
元大證券 -2,231

unclassified
美商高盛 -1,971

hedge desk · will cover
富邦證券 -1,907

unclassified

Still selling 1,850 lots ~46 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +6,805 absorbed / -1,304 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -3,654 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 7%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

34 historical occurrences (since 2014-09-03)

120 days after: historical avg +2.79%

20-day -0.07%

60-day -0.02%

120-day +2.79%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

48.5%

51.5%

Sample

Median

-0.4%

+1.02%

Excess

-0.93%

-2.7%

-4.69%

Beat mkt rate

36.4%

30.3%

36.4%

Over 33 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.79%, lagged the market by 4.69 pts; win rate 51.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 +3.4%

20-40 -1%

40-60 +1.6%

60-80 +15.7%

80-100 +18% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	337	+3.4%	+7.1%	60.2%	-14.4%
20-40	207	-1%	-4.9%	26.6%	-19.8%
40-60	264	+1.6%	-2.8%	42%	-23.6%
60-80	608	+15.7%	+5.6%	56.1%	-14.7%
80-100 You are here	462	+18%	+15%	92.9%	+12%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 59.0, at the 88.5th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

+1.6%

Win rate 66.1% Excess -6%

168d

+0.5%

Win rate 40.2% Excess -13.7%

234d

+4.5%

Win rate 48.9% Excess -5.6%

657d

60-day momentum down

+0.1%

Win rate 53.7% Excess -4.1%

326d

+6.9%

Win rate 66.7% Excess -3.8%

330d

Now

+14.3%

Win rate 81.3% Excess -1%

283d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 283 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 14.3%, win rate 81.3%, lagged the market by 1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

12 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.73%, win rate 25%, beating the market by -1.17 pts on average.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

66 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.16%, win rate 74.2%, beating the market by +6.12 pts on average.

What does 漢翔 do? Company profile

航運業；實質業務屬航太與國防、民用航空零組件、發動機零組件與工業技術服務台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2634 對應證券為漢翔航空工業股份有限公司普通股，英文名稱 Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation，英文簡稱 AIDC，上市市場為台灣證券交易所。公司前身可追溯至空軍航空工業相關單位，現行公司於 1996/07/01 成立，2014/08/25 掛牌上市，總部位於台中市西屯區漢翔路1號。依 2026 年可查資料，董事長為曹進平，總經理為莊秀美；2026/01/02 董事會通過由曹進平出任董事長、莊秀美接任總經理。實收資本額為新台幣 9,418,671,010 元，已發行普通股 941,867,101 股，特別股 0 股。主要股東依 114 年報 2025/07/11 停止過戶日資料為：經濟部 331,301,773 股、35.17%；台北富邦商業銀行受託信託財產專戶 29,763,089 股、3.16%；新制勞工退休基金 11,595,881 股、1.23%；財團法人國防工業發展基金會 11,063,201 股、1.17%。員工規模方面，2024 永續報告書揭露 2024/12/31 全體員工 6,421 人，其中正式不定期員工 5,185 人、正式定期員工 71 人、派遣人員 1,165 人；114 年報另揭露 2025 年女性職員占比 23.6%。公司具軍用飛機研發製造、全機系統整合、民用飛機區段研發、零組件製造與組裝、後勤支援、飛航服務與能源系統整合能力。

Business

漢翔主要業務分為三大類。第一，飛機及航空器維修類，包含軍用與民用飛機、航空器維修、軍用飛機製造、性能提升、機隊商維、軍工廠委託民間經營與軍用引擎相關業務；2025 年營收 17,886,733 仟元，占 50.45%。第二，引擎類，包含軍用與民用引擎及其零組件設計、加工、代工製造與維修；2025 年營收 16,628,781 仟元，占 46.90%。第三，工業技術服務類，包含能源系統、飛航服務、資訊服務、太空、軌道與其他科技產品之研發、設計、製造、測試、系統整合與售後服務；2025 年營收 936,616 仟元，占 2.65%。公司 2025 年合併營收 35,452,130 仟元，較 2024 年 39,338,315 仟元下降 9.88%；本期淨利 733,068 仟元，年報說明主要受產品出貨進度落後、認列相關罰款及美元兌新台幣貶值產生匯兌損失影響。客戶與終端應用方面，國防業務主要對象為國防部、國家中山科學研究院、洛克希德馬丁等；民用航空業務機體製造客戶包含龐巴迪、空中巴士、波音、PFW Aerospace、李奧納多、新明和工業等；發動機客戶包含 GE Aerospace、Honeywell、Rolls-Royce、Pratt & Whitney、Safran Aircraft Engines、Kawasaki Heavy Industries、IHI 等；工業技術服務客戶包含 GE Vernova 台灣分公司、台灣電力公司、工研院、國家太空中心與台灣中油。商業模式上，漢翔一方面承接國防專案、軍機維保與國有民營案，另一方面以國際航太供應鏈 Tier 1/Tier 2/Tier 3 角色承接機體結構、次組合件、發動機機匣與零組件長約，並延伸至能源統包、儲能、太空結構與飛航服務。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 展望可分為國防、民用航空與科技服務三條主線。國防方面，台灣國防自主、軍機妥善率、戰機延壽、性能提升、F-16 維修、IDF 商維、UH-60M/AH-1W 等軍機商維、新式高教機勇鷹量產與後續維保，仍是重要需求來源；公司法說資料指出 2025 年國防預算含特別預算整體規模超過 5,500 億元，且勇鷹高教機量產與機隊商維為高峰業務，目標 2026 年 66 架全數交機。2026 年以後，國防維保、軍工廠委託民間經營、無人機及反制系統、原廠委製與技術移轉合作，預期是主要接單方向。民用航空方面，波音與空中巴士對 2025-2044 年全球新機需求預估均逾 4.3 萬架，單走道客機占比接近八成，疫後航空旅運與窄體機產量回升有利漢翔機體結構、次組合件、發動機機匣與模組業務；公司已為 GE Aerospace、Honeywell、Pratt & Whitney、Rolls-Royce、Safran 等發動機大廠重要供應合作夥伴。科技服務方面，台灣 2050 淨零與電力系統韌性政策，帶動儲能、創能、控能、燃氣渦輪發電機組維修在地化與電網工程需求；漢翔並布局 EMS、BMS、電力島、太空結構、智慧模擬與防災大氣量測飛航服務。風險與挑戰包括：軍用專案交期與缺料風險、延遲罰款與驗收時點影響獲利、美元匯率波動、國際航太大廠持續要求供應商降價、低成本國家航太聚落競爭、美國製造與貿易保護政策不確定性、航太認證與產能擴充週期長、國防預算與政府採購時程變動。2026-2028 若勇鷹交機恢復、國防維保長約延續、民用發動機零組件與機體訂單放量，營收結構可望由民用與國防雙引擎支撐；但具體財務數字未見公司正式逐年財測，故不做量化預估。

Supply Chain

Upstream

千附 8383 漢翔供應商大會列名之國內協力體系廠商；屬航太零組件、精密加工與相關製造供應鏈。
千附精密 6829 台灣航太零組件供應鏈公司，市場報導稱其與漢翔共同承接或受惠航太訂單，主要涉及引擎機匣與結構件等精密加工。
晟田 4541 漢翔供應商大會列名之協力廠，並有市場資料稱其與漢翔共同生產引擎機匣，屬航太零組件加工供應鏈。
寶一 8222 漢翔供應商大會列名之協力體系廠商，屬航太零組件與精密加工相關供應鏈。
駐龍 4572 漢翔供應商大會列名之協力體系廠商，市場報導稱其為漢翔與長榮航太供應鏈廠商，受惠民用航太增單。
榮剛 5009 台灣航太供應鏈公司，提供特殊鋼、合金鋼等材料與加工基礎；市場報導常列為波音、航太概念供應鏈，與漢翔同處航太上游材料與零組件生態系。
凌威漢翔供應商大會列名之協力體系廠商；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
悅誠漢翔供應商大會列名之協力體系廠商；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
欣鴻陽漢翔供應商大會列名之協力體系廠商；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。

Downstream

國防部國防業務主要國內客戶，採購軍用飛機製造、維修、性能提升、機隊商維與軍工廠委託民間經營等服務；政府機關，非上市櫃公司。
國家中山科學研究院國防專案與國機國造相關客戶及合作單位；行政法人，非上市櫃公司。
Lockheed Martin 美國上市國防航太公司，漢翔年報列為國防業務客戶之一，亦與 F-16 維修、升級及技術合作相關。
Boeing 美國上市商用飛機 OEM，漢翔民用航空機體製造與零組件業務之國際大廠客戶。
Airbus 歐洲上市商用飛機 OEM，漢翔民用航空機體製造與零組件業務之國際大廠客戶。
Bombardier 加拿大上市商務飛機公司，漢翔年報列為民用航空機體製造客戶。
GE Aerospace 美國上市發動機與航太系統公司，漢翔年報列為發動機業務主要客戶；同時 GE Vernova 台灣分公司為工業技術服務客戶。
Honeywell 美國上市航太系統與發動機相關公司，漢翔年報列為發動機業務主要客戶。
Rolls-Royce 英國上市發動機大廠，漢翔年報列為發動機業務主要客戶。
Pratt & Whitney RTX 旗下美國發動機公司，漢翔年報列為發動機業務主要客戶；母公司為美國上市公司。
Safran Aircraft Engines 法國上市 Safran 集團旗下飛機發動機公司，漢翔年報列為發動機業務主要客戶。
台灣電力公司工業技術服務與電力工程、儲能、電網韌性相關客戶；國營事業，非上市櫃公司。
台灣中油工業技術服務與能源工程相關客戶；國營事業，非上市櫃公司。
國家太空中心太空結構與科技服務相關客戶；行政法人，非上市櫃公司。

Competitors

長榮航太 2645 台股上市航太維修與零組件公司，與漢翔在航太維修、零組件供應鏈與國際航太客戶服務上具部分競合關係。
亞航 2630 台股上市航空維修公司，與漢翔在航空維修、軍民機後勤維護領域具競爭或互補關係。
晟田 4541 台股上櫃航太零組件加工公司，與漢翔在部分航太零組件加工供應鏈中具競合關係。
駐龍 4572 台股上市航太零組件公司，與漢翔同屬台灣航太供應鏈，在民用航太零組件領域具競合關係。
寶一 8222 台股上櫃航太零組件公司，與漢翔同屬國內航太零組件供應鏈。
千附精密 6829 台股上市精密加工與航太零組件公司，與漢翔在引擎機匣、結構件與航太供應鏈具競合關係。
公準 3178 台股上櫃精密加工與航太零組件公司，與漢翔在航太精密加工供應鏈具競合關係。
經寶精密 JPP-KY 5284 台股上櫃航太與精密機構件公司，供應空巴等國際航太客戶，與漢翔在民用航太零組件領域具間接競爭。
豐達科 3004 台股上市航太扣件與精密零組件公司，與漢翔同屬國內航太供應鏈，產品層級不同但受相同航太景氣循環影響。
Spirit AeroSystems 美國航太結構件大型供應商，非台股掛牌；在全球機體結構件供應鏈中屬漢翔民用航空業務的國際同業。
ST Engineering Aerospace 新加坡上市 ST Engineering 旗下航太維修與改裝業務，非台股掛牌；在亞太航空維修、航太工程服務領域為國際同業。

Sources（18）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.