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2892

第一金 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

3 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20% Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 第一金 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 66Quality 80Growth 78Momentum 63Chips 31

Is 第一金 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~95% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.8%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 33th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 76th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -1.1% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 36.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20%, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.38
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 美商高盛 holds 64,370 lots
  • sellers have 28,323 lots left, ~55 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 64,370 lots since the start (sold 7%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 39,842 lots, has sold 51%, 19,408 left, ~55 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.14pp, mid holders +45, retail -0.14pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -40,491 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美商高盛新加坡商瑞銀凱基台新-台北元大證券群益金鼎
Distributing
凱基-台北國票-敦北法人新光第一金-安和台新華南永昌
Desks
own scale
花旗環球美林永豐金-匯立中國信託
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美商高盛 +64,370
    sold 7%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +35,299
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基 +29,724
    sold 21%
  • 台新-台北 +21,472
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +20,929
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎 +15,037
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 19,408 left
    sold 51%· ~55 sessions to clear
  • 國票-敦北法人 5,241 left
    sold 48%· paused recently
  • 新光 1,771 left
    sold 81%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 第一金-安和 577 left
    sold 88%· ~1 sessions to clear
  • 台新 2,615 left
    sold 27%· ~43 sessions to clear
  • 華南永昌 2,052 left
    sold 36%· ~39 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 花旗環球 -54,984
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美林 -33,545
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 永豐金-匯立 -30,174
    unclassified
  • 中國信託 -21,560
    unclassified
Still selling 28,323 lots ~55 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +175,120 absorbed / -14,428 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -38,742 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

48 historical occurrences (since 2008-04-28)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 55.3%, Sample 47, Median +0.57%, Excess -0.18%, Beat mkt rate 44.7%；60-day: Win 61.7%, Sample 47, Median +1.65%, Excess -0.22%, Beat mkt rate 51.1%；120-day: Win 76.1%, Sample 46, Median +3.84%, Excess -0.18%, Beat mkt rate 56.5%

120 days after: historical avg +3.02%

20-day +0.18%
60-day +1.61%
120-day +3.02%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.3%
61.7%
76.1%
Sample
47
47
46
Median
+0.57%
+1.65%
+3.84%
Excess
-0.18%
-0.22%
-0.18%
Beat mkt rate
44.7%
51.1%
56.5%

Over 46 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 3.02%, lagged the market by 0.18 pts; win rate 76.1%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 36.7%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

68 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 51.8%, Sample 56, Median +0.58%, Excess +0.63%, Beat mkt rate 55.4%；60-day: Win 75%, Sample 56, Median +4.5%, Excess +0.54%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%；120-day: Win 76.4%, Sample 55, Median +6.91%, Excess +1.56%, Beat mkt rate 65.5%

120 days after: historical avg +5.82%

20-day +1.14%
60-day +4.12%
120-day +5.82%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
51.8%
75%
76.4%
Sample
56
56
55
Median
+0.58%
+4.5%
+6.91%
Excess
+0.63%
+0.54%
+1.56%
Beat mkt rate
55.4%
57.1%
65.5%

Over 55 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.82%, beat the market by 1.56 pts; win rate 76.4%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 8%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

86 historical occurrences (since 2012-06-08)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 58.8%, Sample 85, Median +0.74%, Excess -0.7%, Beat mkt rate 44.7%；60-day: Win 67.5%, Sample 83, Median +2.13%, Excess -0.74%, Beat mkt rate 50.6%；120-day: Win 84%, Sample 81, Median +3.91%, Excess -0.55%, Beat mkt rate 54.3%

120 days after: historical avg +4.96%

20-day +0.39%
60-day +1.82%
120-day +4.96%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.8%
67.5%
84%
Sample
85
83
81
Median
+0.74%
+2.13%
+3.91%
Excess
-0.7%
-0.74%
-0.55%
Beat mkt rate
44.7%
50.6%
54.3%

Over 81 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.96%, lagged the market by 0.55 pts; win rate 84%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 837+13% +15.4% 74.8% +2%
20-40 528+12.4% +12% 100% -9.8%
40-60 428+13.2% +11.6% 96.5% -8.3%
60-80 You are here892+10.4% +10% 89% -6.9%
80-100 326+9.8% +8.2% 93.6% -3.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 16.67, at the 76.4th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+6.3%
Win rate 80.8% Excess +0.7%
735d
+6%
Win rate 82.7% Excess -4.2%
753d
Now
+3.3%
Win rate 76.4% Excess -1.9%
813d
60-day momentum down
+7.9%
Win rate 87% Excess -0.3%
393d
+6.3%
Win rate 86.7% Excess -15%
279d
+8.4%
Win rate 96.8% Excess -0.2%
158d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 813 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 3.3%, win rate 76.4%, lagged the market by 1.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

What does 第一金 do? Company profile

金融保險業／金融控股公司 臺灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2892 對應證券為第一金融控股股份有限公司普通股，於臺灣證券交易所上市，簡稱第一金，英文簡稱 FFHC。公司於2003年1月2日以第一商業銀行為主體成立，同日上市，總部位於台北市重慶南路一段30號。TWSE開放資料列示董事長為邱月琴、總經理為方螢基，實收資本額新台幣143,794,686,500元，已發行普通股14,379,468,650股，無特別股。主要股東方面，第一金控投資人關係主要股東頁列示財政部持股1,651,915,064股、11.49%，臺灣銀行股份有限公司持股1,071,965,322股、7.45%，華南商業銀行股份有限公司持股270,752,983股。集團主要成員包括第一銀行、第一金證券、第一金投信、第一金人壽、第一金AMC、第一創投、第一管顧、First Commercial Bank USA、第一金投顧、第一金和昇證券及租賃相關公司。員工規模未能在可引用摘錄中確認精確人數，故不填具體數字。

Business

第一金控為以銀行為核心的金融控股公司，主要業務涵蓋商業銀行存放款、企金與中小企業金融、外幣與跨境金融、財富管理、金融商品交易、證券經紀與承銷、自營、投信資產管理、人壽保險、資產管理、創投與金融管理顧問。第一銀行是主要獲利與資產來源；公開法說摘要顯示2025年金控稅後淨利約269.3億元、EPS 1.87元，第一銀行稅後淨利約256.6億元，銀行業務為絕對核心。2025年獲利動能主要來自授信規模擴張、美元資金成本下降帶動淨利息收入成長，以及財富管理手續費收入增加；2025年底總放款餘額約2.8兆元、總存款約3.94兆元，海外分行稅前獲利約93億元、約占第一銀行稅前獲利近三成。第一金的主要客群包括個人金融客戶、中小企業、大型企業、台商海外投資客戶、高資產財管客戶、證券投資人、基金投資人及保戶。配息政策方面，2026年6月報導指出董事會通過2025年盈餘分配案，擬配發每股現金股利1.30元，配發率約69.5%，尚須股東會承認。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年第一金控獲利創高，主要由第一銀行淨利息收入、財富管理手續費與穩健授信帶動。2026年第一季稅後淨利82.44億元、EPS 0.57元，為史上最佳首季；第一銀行第一季稅後淨利75.73億元，第一金證券稅後淨利5.11億元，非銀行子公司獲利占比提升至約12%。2025至2028年可觀察的成長動能包括：一、海外與跨境金融，第一金控已以歐美、東南亞與亞太據點為重點，受惠台商供應鏈重組、赴美投資與外幣授信需求；二、財富管理與高資產客群，第一銀行手續費收入受財管業務支撐，若利率下行與資本市場活絡，基金、保險與投資商品銷售仍有成長空間；三、非銀行子公司，證券、人壽、投信若能擴大獲利占比，可降低銀行單一來源集中度；四、數位金融與AI導入，官方公司簡介提及金融科技、新型支付、AI與大數據應用、API異業結盟。主要風險包括：全球與台灣景氣放緩、關稅與地緣政治不確定性影響企業授信需求與信用風險，央行與Fed利率路徑改變造成淨利差波動，台幣匯率波動影響金融商品與外幣業務，房貸與不動產授信受監理管制，D-SIBs資本要求與保險IFRS 17／ICS接軌對資本與獲利認列的影響，以及金融市場成交量下滑對證券、投信業務的影響。2027至2028屬較長期推估，核心仍是銀行資產品質、海外放款、財管手收、保險CSM累積及非銀行獲利占比能否持續提升。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 財政部 政府機關，為主要股東之一；依第一金控主要股東資料持股11.49%，亦代表第一金具公股金融機構色彩。
  • 臺灣銀行股份有限公司 未上市銀行，為主要股東之一；依第一金控主要股東資料持股7.45%。
  • 華南商業銀行股份有限公司 未上市銀行，為主要股東之一；第一金控主要股東頁列示持股270,752,983股。
  • 存款戶與資本市場投資人 金融業的主要資金來源包括個人與企業存款、金融債、公司債及股東資本；此為業務性質分類，非單一公司。
Downstream
  • 個人金融與財富管理客戶 第一銀行及第一金人壽、投信、證券的零售金融、基金、保險與投資商品客群，非單一公司。
  • 中小企業客戶 第一銀行中小企業放款為核心業務之一；2025年法說摘要指出中小企業放款突破兆元。
  • 大型企業與台商海外投資客戶 企金、外幣放款、聯貸與跨境金融客戶；受台商海外擴張與供應鏈重組需求影響。
  • 證券、投信與保險客戶 第一金證券、第一金投信、第一金人壽之投資人與保戶，包含交易、資產管理與保障型商品需求。

Competitors

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.