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3037

欣興 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 欣興 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 12Quality 68Growth 75Momentum 97Chips 78

Is 欣興 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 54th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.8%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 93th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 98th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.3% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 32.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.71
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 大和國泰 holds 16,411 lots
  • sellers have 42,206 lots left, ~511 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +228% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 大和國泰 has accumulated 16,411 lots since the start (sold 20%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 17,479 lots, has sold 46%, 9,462 left, ~511 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.38pp, mid holders +27, retail +1.42pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -9,338 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
大和國泰凱基統一中國信託國票-敦北法人法銀巴黎
Distributing
美商高盛國泰證券凱基-台北富邦證券台灣摩根士丹利永豐金-匯立
Desks
own scale
美林摩根大通港商野村港商麥格理
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 大和國泰 +16,411
    sold 20%· still adding
  • 凱基 +9,676
    sold 20%· still adding
  • 統一 +8,763
    sold 17%
  • 中國信託 +8,591
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國票-敦北法人 +5,515
    sold 21%
  • 法銀巴黎 +5,325
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 9,462 left
    sold 46%· ~511 sessions to clear
  • 國泰證券 10,096 left
    sold 38%· ~96 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 1,412 left
    sold 87%· ~85 sessions to clear
  • 富邦證券 6,418 left
    sold 37%· paused recently
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 5,774 left
    sold 25%· ~29 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-匯立 5,147 left
    sold 28%· ~61 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 美林 -30,112
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 摩根大通 -25,336
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 港商野村 -11,783
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 港商麥格理 -11,585
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 42,206 lots ~511 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +4,095 absorbed / -8,774 sold sellers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -7,752 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 32.37%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

75 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 58.5%, Sample 53, Median +2.17%, Excess +2.26%, Beat mkt rate 58.5%；60-day: Win 56.9%, Sample 51, Median +5%, Excess +10.81%, Beat mkt rate 54.9%；120-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 49, Median +8.95%, Excess +11.74%, Beat mkt rate 46.9%

120 days after: historical avg +16.17%

20-day +2.96%
60-day +13.17%
120-day +16.17%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.5%
56.9%
57.1%
Sample
53
51
49
Median
+2.17%
+5%
+8.95%
Excess
+2.26%
+10.81%
+11.74%
Beat mkt rate
58.5%
54.9%
46.9%

Over 49 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 16.17%, beat the market by 11.74 pts; win rate 57.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 258+25.9% +26.8% 92.2% -2.5%
20-40 176+17.5% -3.2% 46.6% -12.8%
40-60 851+73.7% +75.1% 74.5% +53%
60-80 759+91.4% +31% 67.6% +74.5%
80-100 You are here776-4.4% -1.4% 46.3% -12.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 145.29, at the 98.3th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+12.6%
Win rate 69.7% Excess +0.5%
178d
+30.3%
Win rate 72.7% Excess +20.6%
761d
Now
+41.7%
Win rate 43% Excess +32.1%
688d
60-day momentum down
+14.1%
Win rate 57.3% Excess +3.5%
171d
+21.6%
Win rate 60% Excess +14.5%
515d
+7%
Win rate 47.9% Excess -0.7%
626d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 688 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 41.7%, win rate 43%, beat the market by 32.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

33 times historically; 60-day forward avg +15.19%, win rate 61.3%, beating the market by +10.66 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

51 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.73%, win rate 57.1%, beating the market by +4.66 pts on average.

What does 欣興 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；印刷電路板、HDI板與IC封裝載板 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

3037 對應欣興電子股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，不是ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於1990年1月25日，總部位於桃園市龜山區山鶯路179號，統一編號23535435。公開資訊顯示董事長為簡山傑，總經理為馬光華、蘭庭；公司於1998年12月在櫃買中心掛牌，2002年8月26日轉上市。證交所OpenAPI於115/06/16列示實收資本額為新台幣15,888,729,560元，已發行普通股1,588,872,956股，特別股0股。員工規模方面，第三方彙整資料引用2026年第1季資料顯示集團員工約31,483人；徵才網站則常見約18,000人或海內外集團2.3萬至2.7萬人的舊口徑，故本研究以31,483人作為最新但仍需以公司正式財報核對的數字。主要股東方面，公開籌碼資料顯示聯華電子為最大股東，約持有13%左右，第二大股東包含外資保管專戶；公司歷史上屬聯電責任企業群。

Business

欣興是全球主要PCB與IC封裝載板供應商，主要業務為各型印刷電路板、HDI高密度互連板、軟板與軟硬結合板、IC載板及IC測試與預燒相關服務的研發、製造、加工與銷售。公司ESG產品說明列示主要產品包含PCB、HDI PCB、FPC、rigid-flex PCB、Carriers及IC test and burn-in system；IC載板功能為承載IC晶片並透過內部線路連接晶片與PCB，可依封裝技術分為BGA、CSP與Flip Chip等。2025至2026年營收結構以IC載板為核心，市場與法說摘要資料指出2025年第4季IC載板約占營收62%，HDI與PCB合計約38%；近期報導另指出2026年載板營收占比約65%，其中ABF占載板約85%，AI相關營收占比已達約六成以上。商業模式為B2B客製化製造，接受半導體IDM、IC設計公司、封測廠、系統與品牌客戶認證後量產，收入主要來自ABF/BT載板、HDI與高階多層PCB出貨。終端應用涵蓋AI伺服器與HPC、CPU/GPU/ASIC、網通交換器、AI PC、智慧手機、記憶體模組、遊戲機、汽車電子、工業、醫療與高頻高速通訊。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年營運已由2023至2024年載板供過於求與庫存調整後逐步復甦，2025全年營收據公開月營收彙整為新台幣1,312.41億元，年增13.75%，2025全年EPS據財經媒體報導為4.38元。2026年主要成長動能來自AI伺服器、HPC、GPU與ASIC用ABF載板、高階HDI及厚大板PCB；2026年1月至5月單月營收均明顯高於去年同期，5月營收約140.6億元並創歷史單月新高。公司2026年資本支出據法說摘要上修至約340億元，重點包括ABF載板、高階PCB、光復廠與泰國廠布局；泰國PCB廠有助於客戶分散地緣風險與承接遊戲機、模組化及部分AI/網通需求。2027至2028年展望取決於AI GPU/ASIC平台迭代、先進封裝與高層數ABF需求、800G/1.6T交換器與高階伺服器PCB滲透率；若Low-CTE玻布、ABF材料、銅箔基板與設備瓶頸緩解，欣興可望受惠於單機載板面積、層數、線寬線距與良率門檻提高。新技術方面，除高階ABF與HDI外，玻璃載板、超薄高速連接與高頻高速材料是中長期觀察項，但玻璃載板仍具良率、成本、客戶導入時程與量產可行性挑戰。主要風險包括AI需求低於預期、客戶集中、材料缺貨或漲價、ABF產能再度過剩、匯率尤其新台幣升值侵蝕毛利、資本支出折舊壓力、泰國廠爬坡與認證不順、同業擴產競爭、先進封裝路線變化、地緣政治與環保成本。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 味之素株式會社 ABF載板關鍵材料ABF膜主要供應商之一，日本上市公司；屬產業上游材料，非公司正式揭露單一採購名單。
  • 南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司 1303 銅箔基板、玻纖布、樹脂與電子材料供應鏈重要廠商；屬PCB/載板上游材料鏈，是否為欣興直接供應商需以公司採購揭露確認。
  • 台燿科技股份有限公司 6274 高階銅箔基板與低介電材料供應商，受惠高速網通與伺服器PCB需求；屬產業上游材料關係。
  • 聯茂電子股份有限公司 6213 銅箔基板供應商，產品用於伺服器、網通、車用及電子產品PCB；屬產業上游材料關係。
  • 台光電子材料股份有限公司 2383 高階銅箔基板與樹脂材料供應商，為高速運算與網通PCB材料鏈重要台股公司；屬產業上游材料關係。
  • 金居開發股份有限公司 8358 電解銅箔供應商，銅箔為PCB與載板上游材料；屬產業上游材料關係。
  • KLA / Orbotech PCB與載板製程檢測、曝光與AOI相關設備供應商；美國上市公司KLA旗下事業，屬設備端上游。
Downstream
  • NVIDIA Corporation 美國上市AI GPU與網通晶片公司；多份供應鏈與券商報告將其AI伺服器CPU/GPU/Switch晶片載板需求列為欣興成長動能，但公司未逐一正式揭露客戶。
  • Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. 美國上市CPU/GPU與AI加速器公司；ABF載板終端需求來源之一，屬半導體客戶鏈推估。
  • Intel Corporation 美國上市IDM，CPU與先進封裝大量使用ABF載板；市場報告曾列為欣興ABF客戶之一。
  • Broadcom Inc. 美國上市ASIC、網通與交換器晶片公司；AI ASIC與高階網通晶片推升ABF與高階PCB需求，屬終端客戶鏈推估。
  • Apple Inc. 美國上市消費電子品牌，智慧手機、平板與筆電供應鏈使用HDI、FPC與載板；是否為直接客戶需以公司揭露確認。
  • 廣達電腦股份有限公司 2382 AI伺服器與雲端伺服器ODM，屬欣興高階PCB/載板終端應用鏈下游，未必為直接交易客戶。
  • 緯穎科技服務股份有限公司 6669 雲端與AI伺服器系統廠，屬高階PCB與AI伺服器終端需求鏈下游，未必為直接交易客戶。

Competitors

Sources（17）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.