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3265

台星科 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 台星科 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 37Quality 80Growth 67Momentum 79Chips 71

Is 台星科 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~83% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.9%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 62th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 97th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 3.5% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 22.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.60
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 元大-成功 holds 1,261 lots
  • sellers have 2,992 lots left, ~620 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +21% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-成功 has accumulated 1,261 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 2,274 lots, has sold 35%, 1,480 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.04pp, mid holders +6, retail -4.55pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -133 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-成功富邦-竹北富邦-新竹花旗環球群益金鼎第一金
Distributing
美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利凱基-台北摩根大通新加坡商瑞銀美林
Desks
own scale
凱基國票-桃園富邦-永康永豐金-信義
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-成功 +1,261
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-竹北 +702
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-新竹 +453
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +421
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎 +276
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 第一金 +198
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 1,480 left
    sold 35%· paused recently
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 940 left
    sold 49%· ~14 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 991 left
    sold 31%· ~25 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 766 left
    sold 35%· ~28 sessions to clear
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 282 left
    sold 59%· paused recently
  • 美林 145 left
    sold 76%· ~11 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 凱基 -359
    unclassified
  • 國票-桃園 -349
    unclassified
  • 富邦-永康 -327
    unclassified
  • 永豐金-信義 -254
    unclassified
Still selling 2,992 lots ~620 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,686 absorbed / -1,641 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -96 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 22.05%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

77 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 60%, Sample 65, Median +1.99%, Excess +0.9%, Beat mkt rate 47.7%；60-day: Win 63.5%, Sample 63, Median +3.56%, Excess +3.45%, Beat mkt rate 44.4%；120-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 63, Median +1.97%, Excess -1.11%, Beat mkt rate 41.3%

120 days after: historical avg +5.43%

20-day +2.42%
60-day +7.04%
120-day +5.43%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
60%
63.5%
57.1%
Sample
65
63
63
Median
+1.99%
+3.56%
+1.97%
Excess
+0.9%
+3.45%
-1.11%
Beat mkt rate
47.7%
44.4%
41.3%

Over 63 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.43%, lagged the market by 1.11 pts; win rate 57.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 520+15.1% +15% 63.8% -2%
20-40 528+38.7% +22.7% 68.8% +16%
40-60 184+17.7% +4.4% 58.7% +7.6%
60-80 401+29.8% +25.8% 70.6% +21.4%
80-100 You are here1073+17.3% +11.1% 59.8% -4.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 30.26, at the 96.9th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+12%
Win rate 71.3% Excess -1.2%
428d
+20%
Win rate 70.6% Excess +16.9%
204d
Now
+6.9%
Win rate 47.6% Excess -0.2%
941d
60-day momentum down
+12.5%
Win rate 69.3% Excess +3.9%
535d
+9.3%
Win rate 76.5% Excess +3.9%
166d
+19.5%
Win rate 69.4% Excess +5.3%
552d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 941 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6.9%, win rate 47.6%, lagged the market by 0.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

32 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.1%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +1.68 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

49 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.02%, win rate 54.2%, beating the market by +0.31 pts on average.

What does 台星科 do? Company profile

半導體業－IC封裝測試 上櫃

Overview

台星科股份有限公司為台灣櫃買中心上櫃普通股，證券代號3265，英文簡稱WST。公司成立於2000年4月26日，2005年8月2日上櫃，總部及主要廠區位於新竹縣芎林鄉華龍村6鄰鹿寮坑176-5號。董事長為黃興陽，總經理為翁志立。實收資本額約新台幣13.626億元，已發行普通股136,261,659股。2024年報揭露截至2025年3月31日員工982人，平均年齡37.3歲、平均服務年資7.0年。主要股東方面，2025年3月31日前十大股東中，格星股份有限公司持股70,726,438股、持股51.90%，為最大股東；年報另揭露格星股份有限公司之主要股東為矽格股份有限公司100%，因此台星科屬矽格集團封測布局之一。其餘前十大股東包含呂德森、蔡靜雯、匯豐銀行受託保管坎布里亞新興股東收益ETF專戶、陳厚光、潘玉金、矽連科技、黃鈴茹、翁志立、黃宗元等，個別持股比例均低於3%。公司關係企業包含台星科企業股份有限公司，主要從事晶圓凸塊及覆晶技術封裝服務；台星測企業股份有限公司，主要從事工業廠房開發租售業務。

Business

台星科是專業IC封裝測試廠，業務包括積體電路測試、晶圓凸塊、覆晶技術封裝、產品可靠度驗證、失效分析、晶片研磨切割與相關服務。2024年度營收新台幣41.6657億元，營收結構為測試服務13.75082億元、占33.00%；晶圓級封裝服務27.65351億元、占66.37%；其他0.26137億元、占0.63%。銷售地區以外銷為主，2024年外銷31.25763億元、占75.02%，內銷10.40807億元、占24.98%。主要服務項目包含晶圓測試、積體電路成品測試、WLCSP晶圓級晶片尺寸封裝、Bumping晶圓凸塊、Cu Pillar Bump Flip Chip銅柱凸塊覆晶封裝、FCCSP/FCBGA覆晶封裝、矽光子晶片晶圓級封裝、多晶片系統級封裝等。商業模式為承接IC設計公司、IDM、晶圓代工及國際半導體客戶之委外封裝、晶圓測試與成品測試訂單，提供封裝加測試一條龍Turnkey Service，藉由縮短客戶產品驗證與量產週期、降低運送與製造成本來創造價值。公司年報表示長期與國際Fabless及IDM大廠合作，但主要銷貨客戶以B公司、E公司、G公司、H公司等代號匿名揭露；2024年前四大客戶銷貨占比分別為21.31%、17.91%、17.13%、15.18%，客戶集中度偏高。媒體及法人資料指出客戶可能涵蓋聯發科、AMD、博通、長電科技等，但公司公開年報未具名確認，故列為媒體來源資訊。終端應用包括AI/HPC處理器、雲端與資料伺服器、網通設備、WiFi 7、GaN、車用晶片、智慧型手機、PC、消費性電子、物聯網、遊戲機、影像感測器與矽光子/CPO相關產品。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望主軸為AI/HPC、先進製程封裝測試、矽光子與CPO。公司2024年報指出，AI技術發展推升先進製程、先進封裝與高階測試需求，並將開發2.5D/3D異質晶片整合封裝，以滿足高效能、低功耗、小型化需求；公司對2025年銷售數量與營收審慎樂觀。2025年法說會摘要顯示，2025年前三季營收約新台幣34.0億元、年增10.8%，N5/N3晶圓凸塊及覆晶封裝已量產，N2晶圓產品處於認證階段，SiPh矽光子封裝技術為基礎，與客戶合作開發CPO產品並準備導入量產；前三季資本支出約22.9億元，第四季預計再增加9.3億元，主要用於廠房、晶圓級封裝與測試產能擴充。2026年前5月月營收累計約新台幣22.815億元、年增約24.3%，顯示AI/HPC與高階封測需求仍支撐營運。成長動能包括：晶圓代工廠先進封裝產能緊俏下的委外CP測試與Bumping需求外溢；3奈米、5奈米量產及2奈米認證帶動高階製程占比提升；AI伺服器、資料中心、800G/1.6T光通訊升級推升矽光子與CPO封裝測試需求；WiFi 7、GaN、車用晶片認證擴大產品組合。2027至2028年若CPO、矽光子與2.5D/3D異質整合進入較大規模量產，營收結構有機會由傳統晶圓級封裝與CP測試逐步提高高階封裝與光通訊相關比重。主要風險包括：客戶集中且年報未具名，單一大客戶或產品出貨節奏變化會造成營收波動；先進測試與封裝設備資本支出高，若認證或量產時程延後，折舊與稼動率壓力會影響毛利；美中科技戰、地緣政治與供應鏈重組提高接單與材料供應不確定性；全球晶圓廠擴產後若供給釋放過快，可能加劇封測價格競爭；矽光子/CPO屬新興應用，量產時程、客戶採用速度與良率仍具不確定性。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 琳得科先進科技股份有限公司 Taping貼膠材料供應商；台灣未上市公司，年報列為主要原料供應商且供應情形良好。
  • RESONAC ELECTRONICS MATERIALS (HONG KONG) LIMITED 黃光材料供應商；海外公司，年報列為主要原料供應商且供應情形良好。
  • 台灣旭化成電子股份有限公司新竹分公司 黃光材料供應商；外商在台子公司/分公司，非台股掛牌，年報列為主要原料供應商且供應情形良好。
  • 台灣超碩股份有限公司 電鍍材料供應商；未確認為台股掛牌公司，年報列為主要原料供應商且供應情形良好。
  • 揚博科技股份有限公司 2493 電鍍材料相關供應商；台股上市公司，年報列為主要原料供應商且供應情形良好。
  • 台灣道邦化學股份有限公司 電鍍材料供應商；外商化學材料在台公司，非台股掛牌，年報列為主要原料供應商且供應情形良好。
  • 台灣麥德美股份有限公司 電鍍材料供應商；外商化學材料在台公司，非台股掛牌，年報列為主要原料供應商且供應情形良好。
  • 添鴻科技股份有限公司 蝕刻材料供應商；未確認為台股掛牌公司，年報列為主要原料供應商且供應情形良好。
  • 關東鑫林科技股份有限公司 一般化學品供應商；未上市公司，年報列為主要原料供應商且供應情形良好。
Downstream
  • 聯發科技股份有限公司 2454 媒體及法人資料指出為台星科封測客戶之一，應用涵蓋手機、網通、邊緣AI與消費性晶片；公司年報未具名確認。
  • 台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司 2330 歷史資料與產業鏈推估曾為合作/委外晶圓測試與先進製程相關客戶或合作對象；公司最新年報以匿名客戶揭露，未具名確認。
  • 矽格股份有限公司 6257 母集團與封測供應鏈協同對象；透過格星間接持有台星科過半股權，可共享集團客戶、測試平台與封測一條龍資源。
  • 長電科技 中國A股上市封測公司，媒體與歷史資料提及為台星科客戶或合作對象；非台股掛牌，最新年報未具名確認。
  • Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. 美國上市半導體公司，媒體及法人資料稱為AI/HPC相關客戶之一；非台股掛牌，公司年報未具名確認。
  • Broadcom Inc. 美國上市半導體/網通晶片公司，媒體稱為客戶之一，可能涉及網通、AI資料中心與CPO/矽光子相關需求；非台股掛牌，公司年報未具名確認。
  • 國際Fabless與IDM客戶 公司年報明確表示長期與國際無晶圓設計公司及IDM大廠合作，但以匿名方式揭露主要客戶。
  • AI伺服器、資料中心、網通設備、手機、PC、車用與消費性電子供應鏈 終端應用市場；台星科提供晶圓級封裝、覆晶封裝、晶圓測試與成品測試服務，間接供應上述終端產品。

Competitors

Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.