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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 4111 濟生. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=4111
4111
steady quality, discounted valuation, no active signal today.
Is 濟生 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 77th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.8%.
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Valuation is low.PE is in the 7th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 0th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.2% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +0% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 富邦-仁愛 has accumulated 1,256 lots since the start (sold 1%), still adding.
- Main distributor (牛牛牛)亞-網路 peaked at 53 lots, has sold 57%, 23 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +10.09pp, mid holders +0, retail -3.96pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -292 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 富邦-仁愛 +1,256
- 康和 +691
- 德信 +654
- 富邦證券 +318
- 元大-東泰 +231
- 日茂-埔里 +168
Distributing
- (牛牛牛)亞-網路 23 left
- 富邦-南京 8 left
- 群益金鼎-新竹 23 left
- 永豐金-忠孝 13 left
- 彰銀 13 left
- 聯邦-雙和 3 left
Desks
- 永豐金-松山 -445
- 中國信託-文心 -320
- 凱基-台北 -266
- 台新 -191
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 You are here | 1404 | +3.4% | +4.3% | 63.5% | -17% |
| 20-40 | 477 | +10.2% | +5% | 63.9% | -3.5% |
| 40-60 | 738 | +9.2% | +10.3% | 81.7% | -5.9% |
| 60-80 | 381 | +5.7% | +6% | 74.8% | -2.4% |
| 80-100 | 20 | Insufficient data | |||
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 10.02, at the 0.4th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1066 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 3.6%, win rate 59.8%, lagged the market by 8.1%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
32 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.56%, win rate 40.6%, beating the market by -5.87 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
33 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.96%, win rate 86.2%, beating the market by +6.47 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
33 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.68%, win rate 63.6%, beating the market by +1.99 pts on average.
What does 濟生 do? Company profile
Overview
4111 對應證券為濟生醫藥生技股份有限公司普通股，市場別為上櫃。公司前身為濟生化學製藥廠股份有限公司，成立於1962/10/06，1999/03/06上櫃，2017年更名為濟生醫藥生技股份有限公司。總部與主要營運據點位於新竹縣湖口鄉實踐路3號。董事長兼總經理為蘇東茂；發言人為黃惠珍；股務代理為元大證券。公開股市資料顯示截至2026年前後實收資本額約新台幣598,321,350元，已發行普通股約59,832,135股，特別股0股，簽證會計師事務所為安永聯合會計師事務所。員工總數未在可查公開頁面中明確取得，Goodinfo揭露2025年全體員工平均薪資約71.8萬元。主要股東資料以公開董監持股與前十大持股概況呈現：鉅亨網資料顯示前十大持股約14.28%；富聯網2026/05董監持股資料顯示蘇東鈺約3.23%、丞奎興業股份有限公司約2.80%、蘇東茂約2.66%、萬事興有限公司約2.02%、蘇家君約1.67%、蘇雨君約1.65%，另有蘇坤波醫藥、陳山珠等大股東資料見券商資料頁。
Business
濟生為營運公司，核心業務為西藥醫療藥品之製造、加工、銷售與進出口貿易，並涵蓋醫療器材、動物用藥、化粧品、保健食品之製造加工與銷售。公司長期主力產品包括血液透析濃縮液相關系列產品、大型輸液（LVP）及小型注射劑（SVP），並延伸保健食品與化妝保養品。2025年營收結構依玉山證券資料為商品銷售78.58%、加工業務21.40%、商品開發0.02%。較舊的MoneyDJ資料顯示2015年產品結構為注射劑58%、口服製劑1%、外用藥8%、醫療器材、代工及其他33%，該資料年代較久，僅作歷史參考。商業模式以自有藥品與醫材製造銷售、血液透析液與輸液供應、醫院與洗腎中心供貨、藥品代工及通路合作為主；客戶包含國內醫院、診所、藥局、血液透析代理商及洗腎相關通路，歷史資料曾揭露客戶包括佳醫、杏昌等，並有外銷中國大陸與東南亞。公司自主開發CS-45系列血液透析濃縮液，為國內首家獲衛福部核可45倍新單位含量新藥的血液透析濃縮液系列，並已取得六張藥品許可證；另血液透析乾粉筒於2022年11月取得新型專利。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年展望可分為四項。第一，台灣高齡化、糖尿病與高血壓患者增加，慢性腎臟病與末期腎臟病治療需求支撐血液透析濃縮液、洗腎耗材與相關注射劑長期需求；濟生在血液透析液、大型輸液與小型注射劑已有既有醫院與診所通路，具備穩定存量市場。第二，輸液市場在2024年國內主要輸液供應商停工事件後，食藥署要求國內業者擴大產能，濟生已進入多家醫學中心供藥體系，並於2024年12月將產線調整為兩班制；健保輸液給付價格調升逾二成並於2024年10月生效，對2025年毛利率與獲利有正面效果。第三，CS-45系列血液透析濃縮液具降低倉儲空間、醫療廢棄物與運輸量的產品訴求，若醫院與洗腎中心替換率提高，有助於提高產品組合價值；血液透析乾粉筒、腎恩注射液等品項可作為產品線延伸。第四，2026至2028風險包括：輸液缺口若因原供應商恢復產能而縮小，濟生新增訂單成長可能回落；藥價與健保給付政策具不確定性；原料藥、中間體與大宗原料多仰賴國外進口，匯率、運費、供應中斷與法規查廠均可能影響成本與交期；血液透析與西藥製劑市場競爭者眾多，且醫院標案價格競爭會壓縮利潤。上述展望部分為依公開資料與產業趨勢推估，非公司正式財測。
Supply Chain
- 國外原料藥與中間體供應商 MoneyDJ資料指出濟生產品原料為中間體及原料藥，主要向國外進口；抗生素原料藥以季採購為主，大宗原料以半年採購、分批進口為原則，未揭露具名供應商。
- 大宗化學原料與製劑輔料供應商 血液透析濃縮液與輸液需氯化鈉、葡萄糖、氯化鉀、氯化鈣、氯化鎂、醋酸等原料及製劑輔料；具名供應商未在可查資料中確認。
- 製藥設備、包材與PIC/S GMP相關供應商 大型輸液、小型注射劑與透析液生產需無菌製劑設備、包材、品管檢驗與倉儲物流服務；公開資料未揭露特定供應商。
- 佳醫健康事業股份有限公司 4104 台股上市公司；MoneyDJ與製藥發展協會歷史資料指出佳醫曾與濟生簽署血液透析系列藥品代工合約，由濟生研發生產洗腎液與洗腎粉、佳醫負責銷售。
- 杏昌生技股份有限公司 1788 台股上櫃公司；MoneyDJ資料列為濟生客戶之一，屬血液透析與醫療器材相關通路。
- 國內醫院、醫學中心、診所、藥局與血液透析中心 未上市櫃之終端或通路集合；公司產品主要供應醫院、診所、藥局、洗腎中心，CS-45系列已推廣至台北、新北、桃園、新竹、台中、台南、高雄、屏東等地多家醫療院所。
- 中國大陸與東南亞通路客戶 非台股掛牌或未具名客戶；MoneyDJ資料指出公司產品除國內銷售外，亦外銷至中國大陸及東南亞。
Competitors
- 中國化學製藥股份有限公司 1701 台股上市公司；MoneyDJ列為西藥製劑同業，並指出中化亦投入洗腎液製造。
- 台灣東洋藥品工業股份有限公司 4105 台股上櫃公司；MoneyDJ列為製劑同業競爭者。
- 永信藥品工業股份有限公司 3705 台股上市公司；MoneyDJ列為製劑同業競爭者。
- 生達化學製藥股份有限公司 1720 台股上市公司；MoneyDJ列為製劑同業競爭者。
- 友華生技醫藥股份有限公司 4120 台股上櫃公司；MoneyDJ列為製劑同業競爭者。
- 杏輝藥品工業股份有限公司 1734 台股上市公司；MoneyDJ列為製劑同業競爭者。
- 健喬信元醫藥生技股份有限公司 4114 台股上櫃公司；MoneyDJ列為製劑同業競爭者。
- 健亞生物科技股份有限公司 4130 台股上櫃公司；MoneyDJ列為製劑同業競爭者。
- 晟德大藥廠股份有限公司 4123 台股上櫃公司；MoneyDJ列為製劑同業競爭者。
- 美時化學製藥股份有限公司 1795 台股上市公司；MoneyDJ列為製劑同業競爭者。
- 南光化學製藥股份有限公司 1752 台股上市公司；MoneyDJ列為製劑同業競爭者。
- 台鹽實業股份有限公司 1737 台股上市公司；MoneyDJ指出血液透析藥品市場中台鹽亦投入洗腎液製造。
- 信東生技股份有限公司 未確認為台股上市櫃公司；MoneyDJ列為西藥製劑及洗腎液競爭者。
- 禾研科技股份有限公司 未確認為台股上市櫃公司；MoneyDJ列為血液透析藥品市場競爭者。
Sources（12）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.