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4572

駐龍 Electric Machinery As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 駐龍 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 38Quality 68Growth 66Momentum 34Chips 89

Is 駐龍 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~84% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.9%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 77th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 80th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 9.4% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 21.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.25
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 美商高盛 holds 270 lots
  • sellers have 58 lots left, ~35 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -4% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 270 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 新加坡商瑞銀 peaked at 29 lots, has sold 28%, 21 left, ~26 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.03pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -78 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美商高盛美林台灣摩根士丹利統一-敦南元大-淡水土銀
Distributing
新加坡商瑞銀富邦-高雄玉山-新莊永豐金-虎尾富邦-新店國票-中和
Desks
own scale
大和國泰中國信託-高雄港商麥格理國泰-敦南
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美商高盛 +270
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美林 +85
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +79
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 統一-敦南 +76
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 元大-淡水 +67
    sold 0%
  • 土銀 +52
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 21 left
    sold 28%· ~26 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-高雄 16 left
    sold 27%· paused recently
  • 玉山-新莊 10 left
    sold 50%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-虎尾 3 left
    sold 84%· paused recently
  • 富邦-新店 11 left
    sold 31%· paused recently
  • 國票-中和 5 left
    sold 69%· paused recently

Desks

  • 大和國泰 -272
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 中國信託-高雄 -78
    unclassified
  • 港商麥格理 -65
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 國泰-敦南 -59
    day-trade · selling pressure
Still selling 58 lots ~35 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +163 absorbed / -40 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 21.85%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

43 historical occurrences (since 2019-09-10)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 59.4%, Sample 32, Median +0.67%, Excess +0.61%, Beat mkt rate 56.2%；60-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 32, Median +3.64%, Excess +1.87%, Beat mkt rate 56.2%；120-day: Win 67.7%, Sample 31, Median +8.18%, Excess +6.96%, Beat mkt rate 61.3%

120 days after: historical avg +12.6%

20-day +1.4%
60-day +5.77%
120-day +12.6%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
59.4%
62.5%
67.7%
Sample
32
32
31
Median
+0.67%
+3.64%
+8.18%
Excess
+0.61%
+1.87%
+6.96%
Beat mkt rate
56.2%
56.2%
61.3%

Over 31 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.6%, beat the market by 6.96 pts; win rate 67.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 1Insufficient data
20-40 442+13.6% +7.8% 82.6% -13.6%
40-60 2120% -3.6% 34.4% -44.8%
60-80 0Insufficient data
80-100 You are here0Insufficient data

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 54.53, at the 80.2th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+4.7%
Win rate 67.6% Excess -3.8%
105d
+7.8%
Win rate 56.7% Excess -8.6%
289d
Now
-13.9%
Win rate 0% Excess -49.8%
45d
60-day momentum down
+6.8%
Win rate 83.7% Excess +3%
141d
+14.5%
Win rate 59.5% Excess -9.2%
158d
-5.4%
Win rate 10.8% Excess -56.9%
37d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 45 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 13.9%, win rate 0%, lagged the market by 49.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

8 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.67%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -1.73 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.02%, win rate 52.4%, beating the market by -3.03 pts on average.

What does 駐龍 do? Company profile

電機機械；航太精密零組件製造 上市，台灣證券交易所

Overview

4572 對應駐龍精密機械股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF/ETN/權證等非營運證券。公司成立於 1990 年 8 月 8 日，統一編號 23830154，總部與營運地址為高雄市仁武區八德二路166號。董事長王昆生，總經理陳玄益，發言人李汶育。公司於 2018 年 6 月 27 日興櫃掛牌，2019 年 9 月 10 日上市掛牌，英文簡稱 DPI，英文名稱 Drewloong Precision Inc.。實收資本額約新台幣 4 億元，已發行普通股 40,000,000 股。依 114 年年報，截至 2026 年 3 月 31 日集團從業員工 310 人，2025 年度為 357 人、2024 年度為 314 人。主要股東依 2026 年 3 月 30 日年報揭露包含鴻龍投資股份有限公司 15.95%、王昆生 14.92%、可耀股份有限公司 6.97%、益釧股份有限公司 4.77%、益德股份有限公司等。公司沿革與法說資料顯示，2006 年取得 Spirit AeroSystems 合格供應商認證，2007 年通過 Boeing 合格供應商認證，2012 年取得 Boeing 與 NADCAP 化學製程認證，2015 年取得 Boeing 與 NADCAP 珠擊特殊製程認證並完成二廠，2016 年通過 Safran Group 合格供應商認證，2024 年取得 ISO 27001、ISO 14001、ISO 45001 認證。

Business

駐龍定位為航太 Tier 2 等級製造商，主要業務為大型飛機機身結構零組件、大型飛機引擎結構零組件、飛機起落架零組件與特殊模治具之研發、生產與銷售，具備精密加工、鈑金成型、特殊製程、表面處理、組裝、CMM 檢測、NDT、shot peen、陽極處理、塗裝等整合製程。2025 年度營收結構：飛機結構零組件新台幣 631,113 仟元、占 94.07%；模具及其他 39,752 仟元、占 5.93%；合計 670,865 仟元。2024 年度飛機結構零組件占 87.61%，模具及其他占 12.39%。銷售地區 2025 年度為美國 62.72%、台灣 27.98%、其他 9.30%；2024 年度為美國 44.67%、台灣 44.92%、法國 3.82%、其他 6.59%。產品應用包括 Boeing 737 MAX、747、767、777、777X、787、A220 等機身結構件，LEAP-1A、LEAP-1B、Silvercrest 等引擎零件，以及 Airbus A350 起落架 SideStay。主要合作或終端供應鏈客戶包含 Spirit AeroSystems/Boeing、Safran Group、漢翔與長榮相關航太公司；年報揭露直接出貨予 Spirit AeroSystems 與 Safran Group，並與漢翔、長榮公司長期合作。商業模式以國際航太長週期認證、客製化零組件製造、長約供應、製程能力與交期品質為核心；客戶集中度高，2025 年前兩大匿名客戶 A、B 分別占銷貨淨額 52.73% 與 16.90%，2024 年分別占 35.93% 與 29.19%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望偏向溫和復甦與產能升級。產業面，Boeing 2025-2044 Commercial Market Outlook 預估未來 20 年全球新機需求約 43,600 架，Airbus Global Market Forecast 2025-2044 預估約 43,420 架；單走道窄體機為需求主力。駐龍年報與 2025 年法說會指出，2024 至 2025 年曾受 Boeing 罷工與供應鏈庫存去化影響，使民用機拉貨動能轉弱，但 FAA 放寬 737 MAX 月產上限至 42 架、Boeing 交機量改善與供應鏈去庫存，有利 2026 年起拉貨恢復。公司成長動能包括：第三廠位於高雄仁武產業園區，土地面積約 25,600 平方公尺，規劃 2 座廠房與 1 座辦公樓，法說會估 2026 年第 2 至第 3 季完工，年報稱已取得使用執照，將導入複雜次組裝等高階製程；開發 A220、A320、A350 結構零組件、廣體客機、貨機與客改貨、商務客機、航太模治具、硬金屬熱處理與表面處理、國防設備結構件；拓展太空零組件、無人機結構、衛星與國防工業應用；市場由北美為主逐步加強歐洲與亞洲。主要風險包括：前兩大客戶與單一主要供應商集中、Boeing/Airbus 寡占導致訂單週期與品質事件外溢、航空供應鏈庫存去化時間不確定、原物料與航太級材料成本上升、美元匯率波動、利率費用上升、東南亞航太聚落低成本競爭、地緣政治改變外包策略、第三廠擴產後稼動率與新產品認證進度不確定。2027 至 2028 的具體營收或獲利數字公司未公開，故僅能依年報、法說與 Boeing/Airbus 長期需求做方向性判斷。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 甲公司（年報匿名之主要鋁板、鋁擠型材供應商） 年報揭露主要原料包含鋁板、鋁擠型材，由甲公司供應且提供情形良好；另風險章節稱甲公司為全球知名大廠，最近二年度進貨比重分別約 67.21% 與 67.86%，但公司未揭露真實名稱，無法確認是否為台股掛牌公司。
  • 其他公司（年報匿名之鈦合金板供應商） 年報揭露鈦合金板由其他公司供應且提供情形良好，供應商名稱匿名，無法確認是否為台股掛牌公司。
  • 駐龍科技股份有限公司 駐龍轉投資事業，年報稱具航太零組件表面處理關鍵技術，2025 年認列投資利益新台幣 30,166 仟元；未上市櫃。
Downstream
  • The Boeing Company 美國上市公司；駐龍通過 Boeing 合格供應商與特殊製程認證，產品應用於 Boeing 737 MAX、747、767、777、777X、787 等機型。
  • Spirit AeroSystems 原為美國航太結構件大廠，2025 年 12 月 8 日起成為 Boeing 全資子公司；駐龍年報稱直接出貨予 Spirit AeroSystems，且公司多次獲 Spirit 供應商獎項。
  • Safran Group 法國上市航太集團，非台股；駐龍通過 Safran Group 合格供應商認證，年報稱直接出貨予 Safran Group，產品包括 LEAP-1A、LEAP-1B 等引擎零件與 A350 起落架相關零件。
  • 漢翔航空工業股份有限公司 2634 台股上市航太公司；年報稱與國內航空製造工業領導廠商漢翔長期合作，屬下游或協同供應鏈客戶。
  • 長榮航太科技股份有限公司 2645 台股上市航太維修與製造公司；年報稱與『長榮公司』長期合作，此處依台股航太製造商辨識為長榮航太，屬推定，信心中等。
  • Airbus SE 歐洲上市飛機製造商，非台股；駐龍已供應 A220、A350 相關產品並以 A220、A320、A350 結構零組件為新訂單爭取方向，較多為終端應用與供應鏈目標客戶。

Competitors

Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.