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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1101 台泥. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1101
1101
steady quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 台泥 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 57th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.4%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 54th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 78th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -16.1% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -6% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 統一 has accumulated 196,655 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 兆豐-鹿港 peaked at 2,829 lots, has sold 25%, 2,109 left, ~169 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.40pp, mid holders -41, retail -2.22pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -59,056 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 統一 +196,655
- 國票證券 +158,540
- 元大-敦南 +152,366
- 聯邦-嘉義 +67,616
- 永豐金-敦北 +50,925
- 富邦-敦南 +19,914
Distributing
- 兆豐-鹿港 2,109 left
- 永豐金-匯立 1,203 left
- 華南永昌-嘉義 1,012 left
- 統一-松江 174 left
- 元大-斗信 333 left
- (牛牛牛)亞-網路 443 left
Desks
- 美商高盛 -98,888
- 台灣摩根士丹利 -81,015
- 美林 -73,358
- 元大證券 -59,411
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 663 | +20.3% | +18.8% | 99.1% | -5.8% |
| 20-40 | 478 | -11.4% | -14.3% | 18.4% | -8.2% |
| 40-60 | 276 | -4% | -9.2% | 37.7% | -5.7% |
| 60-80 You are here | 338 | +20.6% | +24.2% | 88.8% | +9.7% |
| 80-100 | 1137 | +2.6% | +2.1% | 55.3% | -15.9% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 21.6, at the 78.4th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 576 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 3.4%, win rate 61.8%, lagged the market by 8.7%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
28 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.7%, win rate 46.4%, beating the market by -2.59 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
33 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.89%, win rate 42.4%, beating the market by -0.65 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
45 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.18%, win rate 64.4%, beating the market by -2.46 pts on average.
What does 台泥 do? Company profile
Overview
台泥成立於1946年,1954年由公營轉為民營,1962年以股票代號1101成為台灣第一家股票上市公司,總部位於台北市中山北路二段113號。董事長為張安平(辜成允時代後接任),總經理(資料顯示)為程耀輝。實收資本額約新台幣775億元(約775.11億元),為國內水泥龍頭、最大預拌混凝土生產商,並透過子公司布局歐洲與土耳其。集團以「台泥企業團」運作,旗下重要轉投資/子公司包括:海外水泥控股(整併土耳其OYAK Çimento、葡萄牙Cimpor等)、和平電廠(和平電力)、達和環保(廢棄物處理與協同處理)、台泥綠能(再生能源)、三元能源科技(高雄小港鋰電池廠)、NHOA.TCC(原義大利Engie EPS,米蘭,儲能與電動車充電)。屬大型權值股,股權分散,辜家及相關法人為主要股東群之一。
Business
營收結構以水泥本業為主(約佔近年總營收約78~80%),其餘為能源(電池/儲能)、社會轉型能源(再生能源/電力)及其他。三大營運主軸:(1)水泥與預拌混凝土——含台灣、中國大陸,以及海外(土耳其、葡萄牙等),近年推動低碳水泥(卜特蘭石灰石水泥、卜特蘭飛灰水泥等);(2)能源——儲能系統(透過NHOA.TCC於歐洲布建分散式儲能與虛擬電廠VPP)、電動車充電樁(與Stellantis合作)、三元能源的車用/儲能鋰電池;(3)電力與環保——和平電廠發電、達和環保的廢棄物協同處理(以替代燃料降低碳排)。商業模式由傳統水泥製造,轉向「低碳建材+綠色能源」雙引擎。主要客戶與終端應用涵蓋營造/建商、公共工程、預拌混凝土廠、電網/儲能與電動車市場。
Outlook 2025–2028
成長動能:(1)低碳水泥——葡萄牙市佔約52~53%,規劃2026下半年進軍英國低碳水泥市場;非洲、歐洲水泥區域成長動能較強。(2)能源轉型——歐洲儲能與VPP商業模式調整後改善獲利,和平電廠規劃於2027年機組更新後強化能源組合;三元能源持續推進車用/儲能電池。(3)海外整併——提高對土耳其OYAK合資公司持股,挹注營收獲利。風險與挑戰:中國大陸水泥需求疲弱與資產減損壓力使台泥策略重心由中國轉向歐洲;2025年受三元能源火災一次性損失與中國資產減損影響,法定會計下全年EPS約為負值(市場資料約-1.55至-1.60元),惟剔除一次性項目後調整後EPS約0.72元。其他挑戰包含燃料/電價成本、碳費與碳邊境調整機制(CBAM)、匯率及電池產業競爭。整體展望為水泥本業趨穩、能源與低碳業務逐步放大貢獻,惟轉型期獲利波動較大。
Supply Chain
- 預拌混凝土廠 水泥主要下游通路,台泥亦自營混凝土事業,部分業者未上市
- 國產(國產建材實業) 2504 預拌混凝土/建材通路業者,屬下游應用,同時為產業同業
- 營造業/建商與公共工程 水泥與混凝土終端應用,客戶眾多且多為個別工程標案
- Stellantis NHOA.TCC電動車充電/V2G合作夥伴,歐美上市(非台股)
- 電網/儲能與綠電客戶(如Statkraft、電力交易市場) 儲能系統與虛擬電廠VPP之終端客戶,多為國外企業,非台股
Competitors
- 亞泥(亞洲水泥) 1102 台灣水泥雙雄之一,國內主要競爭對手,亦布局中國市場
- 嘉泥(嘉新水泥) 1103 台灣水泥同業,近年轉型旅宿/資產
- 環泥(環球水泥) 1104 台灣水泥同業,亦產石膏板
- 幸福水泥 1108 台灣水泥同業
- 信大水泥 1109 台灣水泥同業
- 東泥(東南水泥) 1110 台灣水泥同業
- 海螺水泥 中國大陸最大水泥業者,香港/上海上市,海外市場競爭對手
- Holcim / Heidelberg Materials 全球大型水泥集團,歐洲市場競爭對手,海外上市
Sources（14）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.