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2492

華新科 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 華新科 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 18Quality 50Growth 60Momentum 99Chips 97

Is 華新科 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 54th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.6%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 90th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 18.8% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.94
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 摩根大通 holds 24,513 lots
  • sellers have 2,766 lots left, ~180 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +270% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 24,513 lots since the start (sold 2%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 富邦證券 peaked at 4,228 lots, has sold 52%, 2,022 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +17.01pp, mid holders +10, retail -17.45pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,679 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利元大證券新加坡商瑞銀美林
Distributing
富邦證券港商麥格理港商野村元大-士林國票-安和元大-忠孝鼎富
Desks
own scale
群益金鼎富邦-陽明凱基-桃園香港上海匯豐
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +24,513
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +20,058
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +16,197
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +7,521
    sold 3%
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +5,260
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美林 +5,257
    sold 7%

Distributing

  • 富邦證券 2,022 left
    sold 52%· paused recently
  • 港商麥格理 455 left
    sold 88%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 1,549 left
    sold 47%· ~25 sessions to clear
  • 元大-士林 239 left
    sold 86%· ~68 sessions to clear
  • 國票-安和 188 left
    sold 87%· paused recently
  • 元大-忠孝鼎富 561 left
    sold 36%· paused recently

Desks

  • 群益金鼎 -1,517
    unclassified
  • 富邦-陽明 -1,376
    unclassified
  • 凱基-桃園 -1,081
    unclassified
  • 香港上海匯豐 -988
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 2,766 lots ~180 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +13,250 absorbed / -1,169 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -184 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

36 historical occurrences (since 2009-08-03)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 35, Median +2.15%, Excess +7.46%, Beat mkt rate 54.3%；60-day: Win 58.8%, Sample 34, Median +5.7%, Excess +8.03%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 75.8%, Sample 33, Median +21.24%, Excess +19.85%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%

120 days after: historical avg +27.59%

20-day +9.02%
60-day +11.89%
120-day +27.59%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.1%
58.8%
75.8%
Sample
35
34
33
Median
+2.15%
+5.7%
+21.24%
Excess
+7.46%
+8.03%
+19.85%
Beat mkt rate
54.3%
50%
66.7%

Over 33 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 27.59%, beat the market by 19.85 pts; win rate 75.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 578+22.3% +11.6% 64.9% +10.2%
20-40 237+36.8% +58% 65.8% +20.4%
40-60 287+163.1% +65.2% 75.3% +131.2%
60-80 485+30.2% +9.2% 56.1% +5.5%
80-100 You are here592+16.8% +9.4% 55.2% -1.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 103.83, at the 100.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+10.4%
Win rate 65.9% Excess +7.6%
323d
+33.9%
Win rate 78.1% Excess +20.5%
228d
Now
+39.6%
Win rate 54% Excess +26.4%
707d
60-day momentum down
+2.2%
Win rate 46.6% Excess -1.9%
431d
+20.2%
Win rate 60.3% Excess +0.5%
267d
+6.7%
Win rate 37.3% Excess -1.6%
343d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 707 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 39.6%, win rate 54%, beat the market by 26.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

64 times historically; 60-day forward avg +23.2%, win rate 59.6%, beating the market by +17.46 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

58 times historically; 60-day forward avg +10.58%, win rate 52.7%, beating the market by +6.68 pts on average.

What does 華新科 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；被動元件 TWSE

Overview

2492 對應華新科技股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業類別為電子零組件業。官網公司基本資料列市場別為上市公司、股票代號 2492、上市日期民國 90/09/17（2001/09/17）、董事長焦佑衡、總經理曾明燦、發言人李定珠、會計師事務所勤業眾信、地址台北市松智路1號24樓、電話 (03)475-8711。2026 年第二季法說簡報列註冊成立 1992 年、資本額約新台幣 4,858 百萬元、1997 上櫃、2001 上市、2025 年全年營收新台幣 36,465 百萬元、2026 年 4 月累計營收新台幣 13,268 百萬元、18 座製造工廠、全球員工 11,700 人以上、每年約 3% 營收投入研發。官網公司簡介則描述自 1992 年成立以來發展為台灣上市公司；第三方股市基本資料另列成立時間 1970/07/29，推測與公司前身萬邦電子或登記沿革口徑有關。2025/04/19 主要股東名單：華新麗華 18.30%、瀚宇博德 8.71%、精成科技 4.36%、華東科技 2.75%、焦佑衡 2.65%、花旗台灣商銀受託保管馬來西亞銀行金英證券私人有限公司投資專戶 2.33%、智嘉投資 1.37%、金鑫投資 1.28%、采邑 1.11%、華邦電 1.09%。

Business

華新科是被動元件供應商，核心產品涵蓋 MLCC 積層陶瓷電容、圓板電容、SMD 電容、薄膜電容、鉭質電容、雲母電容、晶片電阻、薄膜晶片電阻、電流感測電阻、晶片保險絲、電流保險絲、電感、功率電感、RF LTCC 元件、天線開關與模組、GPS 天線、NFC/WPC、MOV/MLV、熱敏電阻、EMI 濾波器與 DR 濾波器等。2026 年第一季產品銷售比重：MLCC 46.4%、Resistor 22.2%、RF 14.2%、Disc Capacitor 4.0%、Inductor & Others 13.3%。產品應用橫跨車用與綠能、工業、PC 與週邊、通訊、消費性電子與其他醫療/監測應用；具體應用包含 ADAS、BMS、充電樁、電源逆變器、AI NB、AI Server、Data Center、Base Station、Gateway、ORAN、Small Cell/CPE、智慧家庭、VR/AR、白色家電、醫療監測等。商業模式為自有製造加全球銷售/倉儲/代理通路，強調一次購足、多點生產備援、多源原料供應與區域物流中心；法說資料列日本、馬來西亞、台灣、中國等製造據點，並有歐洲、日本、美國、馬來西亞倉庫出貨成長。AI 需求主要來自 EMS 廠及電源供應器客戶，相關產品包括 X6S MLCC、安規電容、特殊電阻、中高壓 MLCC、AI 伺服器 BBU/PSU 用高壓低損 MLCC、金屬分流/電流感測電阻、高功率抗突波/抗硫化電阻，以及 800G/1.6T 高速通訊用 RF/濾波元件。2025 全年合併營收約新台幣 364.63 億元，EPS 4.74 元；2026 Q1 營收新台幣 95.38 億元，毛利率 18.3%，營業淨利率 7.5%，稅後淨利新台幣 8.20 億元，EPS 1.69 元。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年公司展望聚焦工控/智能製造/電源、智能車與電動車、充電樁與儲能、AI 伺服器、資料中心、5G 網通、AIoT/UWB 等。2025 法說列主要動能為 AI 成本下降推升應用需求、電源與資料處理體積利用率最大化帶動新型元件需求、資料中心能源效率/散熱/連接性需求推升高電壓、高溫、大電流、抗硫化元件需求；策略為擴增 AI 伺服器、工控、汽車、醫療、新能源等高階產品，強化快速客製化、IT 化與製程彈性化、節能減碳、海外區域製造物流中心。2026 年第二季法說進一步將 AI 機遇定位為運算、通訊、電源三大結構性成長，引用 Gartner 預估 2026 年伺服器支出年增 36.9%，全球 AI 伺服器市場年增 17%；應用包含 AI BBU、AI 伺服器 PSU、800G/1.6T 高速通訊、EV BMS/OBC、低軌通訊衛星與 B5G/6G。新聞與法說整理顯示，2025 年底 AI 產品線約占公司營收 10%，2026 年股東會後公司管理層表示接單出貨比約 1.3 至 1.4、2026 全年 AI 相關營收占比可望達 15% 至 20%，並預期被動元件供需吃緊可能延續至 2027 年甚至 2028 年。擴產方面，報導稱 2026 年電阻與 MLCC 產能擬擴增約 10% 至 15%，2027 年擴產幅度可能較 2026 年增加，特殊/薄膜電阻產能有倍增機會，資本支出自過往約新台幣 5 至 10 億元提高至約 30 億元。風險包括：記憶體與 AI 伺服器供應鏈供貨節奏可能限制終端拉貨；MLCC/電阻設備交期與擴產速度可能不及需求或在高峰後造成供給壓力；銀、鎳、銅、陶瓷粉末、電極材料及電價上升壓縮毛利；車用元件價格競爭；美中關稅、地緣政治與客戶要求非中國產能；匯率波動；若 AI 訂單重複下單或終端資本支出放緩，將影響 2027-2028 需求延續性。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 信昌電子陶瓷股份有限公司 6173 台股上櫃；華新科集團旗下被動元件/陶瓷粉末與 MLCC 相關公司，市場資料稱其具介電陶瓷粉到 MLCC 垂直整合能力，屬 MLCC 陶瓷材料與同業競爭交疊角色。
  • 勤凱科技股份有限公司 4760 台股上櫃；導電漿料供應商，市場資料稱銅膏應用於 MLCC、銀膏應用於電感與電阻，屬被動元件電極/導電材料上游代表；未確認為華新科指定供應商。
  • 九豪精密陶瓷股份有限公司 6127 台股上櫃；晶片電阻陶瓷基板廠，屬晶片電阻基板上游代表；早期產業資料稱其為國內重要陶瓷基板供應商，未確認為華新科指定供應商。
  • 華新麗華股份有限公司 1605 台股上市；華新科最大股東，屬華新集團。其銅材/金屬資源與集團背景可形成策略支援，但未查得公開資料證實其為華新科主要原料供應商。
  • 日本、歐洲、中國等地原料供應商 華新科法說資料稱採多源原料供應，電漿由內部及日本/歐洲等多源供給，其他原料由日本/歐洲/中國等地多源供應；公司未揭露具名供應商。
  • 松尾電機株式會社 日本公司；華新科透過日本子公司釜屋電機布局鉭質電容，曾持有松尾電機近兩成股權，2024 年子公司釜屋電機完成公開收購並使松尾電機成為 100% 子公司後下市，屬鉭質電容產品組合與技術/產能布局。
Downstream
  • 台達電子工業股份有限公司 2308 台股上市；AI 伺服器與資料中心電源供應器代表廠，華新科揭露 AI 需求主要來自電源供應器客戶，但未公開逐一確認客戶名稱，故列為產業下游代表。
  • 光寶科技股份有限公司 2301 台股上市；電源供應器與雲端/伺服器電源供應鏈代表，華新科 AI 電源相關被動元件的潛在下游類型；未確認為公司具名客戶。
  • 鴻海精密工業股份有限公司 2317 台股上市；全球 EMS/伺服器代工代表。華新科資料稱 AI 需求來自 EMS 廠與電源供應器客戶，未揭露具名 EMS 客戶，故列為產業下游代表。
  • 廣達電腦股份有限公司 2382 台股上市；AI 伺服器 ODM 代表，屬 AI Server/Data Center 應用下游；未確認為華新科具名客戶。
  • 緯穎科技服務股份有限公司 6669 台股上市；雲端資料中心與 AI 伺服器 ODM 代表，屬華新科 AI 伺服器與資料中心被動元件終端應用鏈；未確認為華新科具名客戶。
  • 全球主要 AI 伺服器代工廠、電源供應器大廠、通訊設備客戶與經銷商 華新科公開資訊與媒體報導稱 AI 需求主要來自 EMS 廠、電源供應器客戶，交換器與通訊設備亦有出貨；公司未完整揭露客戶名單，且 2024 年報口徑顯示無單一銷貨客戶達重大集中門檻。

Competitors

Sources（19）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.