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2538

基泰 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 基泰 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 71Quality 62Growth 66Momentum 26Chips 76

Is 基泰 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~98% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.1%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 59th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 75th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 4.8% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 21.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.41
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 兆豐-公益 holds 3,500 lots
  • sellers have 650 lots left, ~58 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -7% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 兆豐-公益 has accumulated 3,500 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 新光 peaked at 510 lots, has sold 30%, 356 left, ~50 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.26pp, mid holders +1, retail -0.38pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -918 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
兆豐-公益元大-台北康和-台南台新-建北元大-忠孝美商高盛
Distributing
新光凱基-台北永豐金-桃園元大-北投台灣企銀-嘉義兆豐-桃園
Desks
own scale
統一兆豐-板橋富邦-和美新光-台中
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 兆豐-公益 +3,500
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-台北 +1,332
    sold 0%
  • 康和-台南 +1,260
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新-建北 +728
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-忠孝 +529
    sold 0%
  • 美商高盛 +432
    sold 10%· still adding

Distributing

  • 新光 356 left
    sold 30%· ~50 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 291 left
    sold 28%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-桃園 147 left
    sold 39%· ~40 sessions to clear
  • 元大-北投 107 left
    sold 42%· paused recently
  • 台灣企銀-嘉義 95 left
    sold 34%· paused recently
  • 兆豐-桃園 57 left
    sold 55%· paused recently

Desks

  • 統一 -3,005
    unclassified
  • 兆豐-板橋 -940
    unclassified
  • 富邦-和美 -936
    unclassified
  • 新光-台中 -922
    unclassified
Still selling 650 lots ~58 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,712 absorbed / -220 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -47 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 21.66%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

101 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 47.7%, Sample 88, Median -0.01%, Excess -0.05%, Beat mkt rate 45.5%；60-day: Win 41.9%, Sample 86, Median -1.18%, Excess -2.06%, Beat mkt rate 33.7%；120-day: Win 47.7%, Sample 86, Median -0.72%, Excess -6.6%, Beat mkt rate 38.4%

120 days after: historical avg -1.1%

20-day +0.6%
60-day +0.33%
120-day -1.1%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.7%
41.9%
47.7%
Sample
88
86
86
Median
-0.01%
-1.18%
-0.72%
Excess
-0.05%
-2.06%
-6.6%
Beat mkt rate
45.5%
33.7%
38.4%

Over 86 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 1.1%, lagged the market by 6.6 pts; win rate 47.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 543-9.6% -12.3% 25% -23.6%
20-40 233+4.3% +3% 58.4% -27.6%
40-60 70+1.9% +3.3% 65.7% -16.8%
60-80 You are here388+3.8% -0.1% 49.7% -44.7%
80-100 621+15.5% +17.4% 83.1% -9.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 28.19, at the 75.4th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-4.5%
Win rate 24.4% Excess -11.5%
283d
-4.2%
Win rate 36.1% Excess -20.4%
144d
+5.1%
Win rate 65.4% Excess -5.4%
613d
60-day momentum down
-0.4%
Win rate 50.4% Excess -9.3%
452d
-3.7%
Win rate 43.5% Excess -30.9%
69d
Now
+4.8%
Win rate 60.1% Excess -21%
414d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 414 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 4.8%, win rate 60.1%, lagged the market by 21%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.52%, win rate 44%, beating the market by -3.7 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

68 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.23%, win rate 43.3%, beating the market by -2.77 pts on average.

What does 基泰 do? Company profile

建材營造業／營建業／不動產開發 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2538 對應證券為基泰建設股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1979/11/07，1996/11/01 掛牌上市，總部位於台北市中正區衡陽路 51 號 10 樓。最新可查資料顯示董事長為楊儲明、總經理為馮先勉、發言人為紀鈞舜；部分舊資料仍列陳世銘為董事長，故以 2026 年 Yahoo、Win 投資、Goodinfo 等近期資料為準。實收資本額約新台幣 44.50 億元，已發行普通股 445,025,495 股。104 人力銀行資料列員工數約 10 人，但此可能僅反映刊登職缺頁面資料；Goodinfo 提供 2025 年全體員工平均年薪 89.9 萬元。主要股東未能在公開網頁完整確認前十大普通股股東名冊；可確認董事與法人董事相關持股包含創世紀顧問、長富資產管理顧問、京殿堂實業、榮元、千福開發及楊海杰等，Goodinfo 顯示 2026 年 5 月全體董監持股約 25,328 張、約 5.7%，無質押。公司曾於 2006 年發行營建業獨立發行之 REITs「基泰之星不動產投資信託基金」。

Business

基泰的核心商業模式為取得土地或與地主合建、都更／危老整合，委託營造廠興建住宅、商業大樓、店面、辦公、停車位等，再以預售、成屋銷售、出租及商用不動產經營產生收入；公司本身不是營造廠，主要經營項目明確列為委託營造廠商興建商業大樓及國民住宅出售、出租。MoneyDJ 資料指出公司推案以大台北地區為主，產品包括公寓住家、停車位、大樓辦公店面商場、旅館套房及停車位；2023 年營建收入約占 79%、其他收入約 21%。較新的玉山證券資料列 2025 年營收比重為租賃 51.04%、其他 39.54%、房地產 9.41%，反映 2025 年交屋認列較少、租賃及其他收入占比提高。公司官網與 2025 法說會資料列示主要個案包含商用不動產「基泰忠孝」、成屋個案「基泰台大」「基泰世貿」「基泰伯爵」，興建中個案「基泰磺溪」「基泰大安」「基泰碧湖」「象山主人」。截至 2025 年法說會，2025 年前三季營收 2.07 億元、營業損失 0.08 億元、稅後淨利 2.48 億元、EPS 0.56 元；2024 年營收 9.83 億元、稅後淨利 2.53 億元、EPS 0.57 元。2026 年 5 月單月營收 2,408.3 萬元，2026 年 1-5 月累計營收 1.33 億元、年增 6.23%。下游客戶主要為雙北自住與置產買方、都更地主、商辦／店面承租戶及不動產投資買方，收入認列高度受建案完工、交屋與過戶時點影響。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025-2028 年展望以個案完工認列、雙北都更危老整合、商用不動產經營與房市政策循環為主要變數。短中期成長動能來自 2026 年預計完工或接近完工的「基泰磺溪」（預計 2026 年第 2 季）、「基泰大安」（預計 2026 年第 2 季）、「基泰碧湖」（預計 2026 年第 4 季），以及「象山主人」（預計 2030 年第 2 季，屬 2028 後較長期案源）。公司 2025 法說會列示精選都更案包括 KT052 內湖碧湖段、KT060 北投大業段、KT063 信義吳興段、KT066 中和捷運段、KT016 文山實踐段、KT076 士林海光段等，多處於權利變換、事業計畫或事權併送審議階段，若審議與整合順利，將構成 2027-2028 後案源基礎。公司未來願景明示將升級未來科技住宅、增加商業地產比重、發展商業經營能力、深耕精選都更個案，以住宅、商用地產與運轉收益創造長期價值。產業面，台灣央行自 2024 年 9 月第七度選擇性信用管制後，房市交易降溫、房價漲勢趨緩，2026 年仍受信用管制、銀行不動產授信總量、利率、完工潮及買方信心影響；對基泰而言，雙北核心區位及小基地都更產品具稀缺性，但高房價與貸款限制可能壓抑銷售速度。主要風險包括：基泰大直鄰損案衍生停工、賠償、訴訟與品牌信任損害；都更／危老整合與權利變換審議不確定；營建成本、缺工、工安與監造要求提高；央行信用管制與銀行房貸排撥影響買方交屋；建案集中在雙北、單案認列波動高；商辦或整棟商用資產去化需受租金報酬率與壽險不動產投資限制影響。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 都更／危老地主與土地所有權人 基泰重要案源來自自行開發、合建、都更及危老整合；地主與所有權人多為自然人或未上市法人，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 開揚營造股份有限公司 非台股掛牌；公開工程實績列「基泰磺溪集合住宅機電工程」，業主為基泰建設。
  • 福益營造股份有限公司 非台股掛牌；媒體報導指出基泰大直案承造商為福益營造，屬基泰委外營造鏈的一環，但該案亦為公司重大風險來源。
  • 華林營造股份有限公司 非台股掛牌；公開訊息曾提及基泰碧湖相關營造廠為華林營造，需以個案建照與工程資料進一步確認。
  • 台灣水泥股份有限公司 1101 台股上市水泥公司，為營建業上游水泥供應代表；未確認為基泰直接供應商。
  • 亞洲水泥股份有限公司 1102 台股上市水泥公司，為營建業上游水泥供應代表；未確認為基泰直接供應商。
  • 中國鋼鐵股份有限公司 2002 台股上市鋼鐵公司，為營建鋼材上游代表；未確認為基泰直接供應商。
  • 台灣玻璃工業股份有限公司 1802 台股上市玻璃建材公司，屬建築外牆與室內建材上游代表；未確認為基泰直接供應商。
Downstream
  • 自住與置產購屋客戶 主要下游客戶，購買基泰住宅、店面、辦公、停車位等產品；多為自然人或未上市法人。
  • 都更及危老地主戶 同時具上游土地供給與下游分回房地角色，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 商辦、店面及停車位承租戶 基泰租賃收入來源之一，實際承租戶名單未完整公開，可能包含個人、公司行號或未上市法人。
  • 不動產代銷與房仲通路 銷售通路協助預售、成屋與租售去化；個別合作業者未能完整確認，多為未上市或未揭露合作對象。
  • 金融機構與房貸銀行 非商品客戶但影響交屋與買方付款能力；銀行房貸排撥與央行信用管制會直接影響建案去化與過戶認列。

Competitors

Sources（18）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.