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2539

櫻花建 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 櫻花建 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 71Quality 89Growth 98Momentum 8Chips 10

Is 櫻花建 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~97% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.5%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 21th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 49th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -5.1% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 418.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.18
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution, concentration falling — bearish

  • Distribution, concentration falling — bearish
  • 台新-建北 holds 2,614 lots
  • sellers have 325 lots left, ~25 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -18% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台新-建北 has accumulated 2,614 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台中銀-台北 peaked at 855 lots, has sold 82%, 151 left, ~2 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.21pp, mid holders +1, retail +0.67pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -4,269 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台新-建北玉山-信義國泰-台中國泰-敦南花旗環球富邦-竹北
Distributing
台中銀-台北康和-台南港商野村元大-永和永豐金-台中元大-頭份
Desks
own scale
摩根大通美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利統一-新台中
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台新-建北 +2,614
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 玉山-信義 +1,687
    sold 2%
  • 國泰-台中 +797
    sold 4%
  • 國泰-敦南 +656
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +548
    sold 9%· still adding
  • 富邦-竹北 +525
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 台中銀-台北 151 left
    sold 82%· ~2 sessions to clear
  • 康和-台南 245 left
    sold 53%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 145 left
    sold 54%· paused recently
  • 元大-永和 14 left
    sold 88%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-台中 31 left
    sold 72%· paused recently
  • 元大-頭份 55 left
    sold 50%· ~10 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 摩根大通 -3,769
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美商高盛 -2,167
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -1,579
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 統一-新台中 -1,454
    unclassified
Still selling 325 lots ~25 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,685 absorbed / -851 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -3,030 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 418.92%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

106 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-26)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 58.2%, Sample 91, Median +0.96%, Excess +1.96%, Beat mkt rate 46.2%；60-day: Win 62.2%, Sample 90, Median +3.76%, Excess +1.8%, Beat mkt rate 53.3%；120-day: Win 69.3%, Sample 88, Median +7.94%, Excess +6.62%, Beat mkt rate 55.7%

120 days after: historical avg +14.58%

20-day +2.89%
60-day +5.72%
120-day +14.58%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.2%
62.2%
69.3%
Sample
91
90
88
Median
+0.96%
+3.76%
+7.94%
Excess
+1.96%
+1.8%
+6.62%
Beat mkt rate
46.2%
53.3%
55.7%

Over 88 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 14.58%, beat the market by 6.62 pts; win rate 69.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 413+7.1% +8.3% 64.4% +5.5%
20-40 461+18.3% +18.3% 87.9% -1.4%
40-60 You are here485+39% +21.7% 93.6% +11.1%
60-80 658+36.2% +25.6% 94.5% +13.7%
80-100 999+26.7% +22.1% 91.2% +14.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 13.92, at the 48.8th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+2.2%
Win rate 72.6% Excess -0.1%
423d
+13.7%
Win rate 90.5% Excess +0.2%
768d
+17.4%
Win rate 87.7% Excess +9.9%
1270d
60-day momentum down
+4.3%
Win rate 65.6% Excess -7.1%
305d
Now
+7.5%
Win rate 77.9% Excess -13.2%
86d
+15.5%
Win rate 99.2% Excess +15%
266d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 86 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 7.5%, win rate 77.9%, lagged the market by 13.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

40 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.24%, win rate 85%, beating the market by +4.85 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

42 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.84%, win rate 78.6%, beating the market by +4.62 pts on average.

What does 櫻花建 do? Company profile

建材營造業／住宅與商業不動產開發 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2539 對應證券為櫻花建，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、特別股、權證或 REIT。公司全名為櫻花建設股份有限公司，英文名 SAKURA DEVELOPMENT CO., LTD.，成立於 1987-05-02，上市日期為 1997-07-16，總部位於台中市西區臺灣大道二段239號4樓，另有北區營業處位於台北市內湖區行善路459號2樓。董事長暨發言人為陳世英，總經理為沈淑貞；官方揭露經營團隊另有副總經理李輝平。實收資本額約新台幣119.31億元，已發行普通股約11.931億股。員工規模方面，104人力銀行揭露員工數約77人；此數字屬徵才平台資料，非年報逐項查核數。官方 2025-04-22 主要股東名單顯示，前十大股東包括曾淑瓊持股21.77%、林陳海21.74%、合陽管理顧問股份有限公司18.96%、晉爵開發股份有限公司3.17%、金林國際投資股份有限公司2.56%、謝銀連1.77%、美大投資有限公司0.99%、陳明生0.84%、曾聰林0.79%、曾李金鑰0.74%。公司於 2024-01-04 轉投資櫻雄營造股份有限公司並持股100%，強化營造端掌控能力。

Business

櫻花建主要從事委託營造廠商興建國民住宅、公寓社區、集合住宅大樓、商業大樓與透天別墅之出租及出售。MoneyDJ 與公開個股資料均指出，集合式住宅大樓出租、出售業務為主要收入來源，產品營收占比可視為不動產開發銷售約100%；公司本質是土地取得、產品規劃、預售銷售、工程發包／管理、完工交屋認列收入的住宅開發商。區域布局以大台中與彰化為核心，後續拓展至北台灣，並曾於桃園、新竹等區域推案。商業模式重點在取得具交通建設、生活機能或首購自住需求支撐的土地，規劃住宅社區或商辦產品，透過預售與成屋銷售取得現金流，並於完工交屋時認列營收。主要客戶為自住、首購、換屋及部分置產買方；終端應用為住宅居住、社區型集合住宅與少量商業大樓使用。公司上游投入包含土地、設計規劃、營造工程、鋼筋、混凝土、瓷磚及機電等建材與施工資源；下游則包括個人購屋者、代銷與房仲通路、銀行房貸體系及社區管理服務。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年櫻花建受惠多個完銷建案密集交屋，媒體報導全年營收首度突破百億元、約達140億元，年增約55%，為中部營建股營收表現較突出的公司之一；但公司曾於 2025-06-23 重大訊息澄清，對外未公開揭露財務預測，因此所有未來營收與 EPS 估計應以公開資訊觀測站公告為準。2026 至 2028 年的主要成長動能來自已銷售未完工案與既定交屋排程：董事長於 2025 年底法說會表示，未來三年約有十個建案陸續交屋、總銷近350億元，可提供營收能見度；2026 年預計交屋案包括台中潭子「櫻花知築」、烏日「高鐵之櫻—詠綻」、太平「昕光之櫻」、「大甲之櫻-水美」、北屯「柳川之櫻」、彰化市「中山之櫻」等。推案節奏方面，受央行限貸令、資金環境緊縮與房市買氣降溫影響，公司 2026 年規劃新案轉趨保守，媒體報導僅規劃台中烏日高鐵特區新站南段三期、太平福億段及大甲致用段二期等三案，總銷約65億元，低於 2025 年約180億元推案規模。中期布局上，公司仍握有土地庫存，媒體報導在手土地約8,063坪，分布於台中高鐵特區、彰化員林、台南新營、桃園中壢等地，後續可推案總銷上看約150億元；2026-03 又公告取得台中烏日高鐵特區新站南段商業土地，顯示仍看好軌道與高鐵生活圈。產業趨勢方面，台灣住宅市場仍受人口移動、軌道建設、區域就業、首購自住需求支撐，但政策與利率變數對銷售速度、買方貸款成數、建商資金成本與存貨去化影響很大。主要風險包括央行信用管制延續、銀行不動產放款額度緊縮、房價修正或成交量萎縮、營建成本高檔、土地取得成本偏高、完工交屋時程遞延、預售案銷售率不如預期，以及營建業收入認列高度集中導致季度營收波動。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 櫻雄營造股份有限公司 櫻花建100%持股子公司，2024年轉投資設立並取得營造能力，屬未上市櫃公司；有助於提高工程進度、成本與品質掌控。
  • 土地所有權人與土地仲介通路 公司開發所需土地主要透過市場買賣、仲介與地主接洽取得；非單一上市櫃供應商。
  • 建築師、設計、工程顧問及營造承包商 提供建案規劃、設計、請照、施工與專案管理服務；多為未上市櫃或案場合作廠商，公開資料未揭露固定主要供應商名單。
  • 鋼筋、混凝土、瓷磚、機電與建材供應商 MoneyDJ 整理資料指出公司營建材料包括鋼筋、混凝土、瓷磚等，向長期合作供應商採購；未能確認特定上市櫃供應商名稱。
  • 銀行與金融機構 提供土地融資、建築融資、履約保證與購屋房貸；可能包含上市櫃金融控股旗下銀行，但公開資料未揭露個別主要合作銀行占比。
Downstream
  • 首購與自住購屋者 為公司住宅建案主要終端客戶；2025年底法說會相關報導指出首購與自住買盤仍具支撐力。
  • 換屋與置產客群 購買集合住宅、商業大樓或區域型產品；需求受房貸條件、區域房價與市場景氣影響。
  • 代銷、房仲與廣告行銷通路 負責預售案銷售、客戶開發、廣告投放與簽約流程；多為未上市櫃或專案型合作公司，公開資料未揭露固定名單。
  • 社區管理委員會與住戶服務體系 完工交屋後由客戶服務部協助成屋交屋、保固維修、客訴處理與社區活動支援。

Competitors

  • 國泰建設 2501 上市建商，MoneyDJ 列為櫻花建國內競爭廠商之一；大型品牌建商，住宅與商辦開發皆具規模。
  • 冠德建設 2520 上市建商，MoneyDJ 列為競爭廠商之一；雙北與都會區住宅、商辦及開發案經驗豐富。
  • 宏璟建設 2527 上市建商，MoneyDJ 列為競爭廠商之一；住宅開發同業。
  • 皇普建設 2528 上市建商，MoneyDJ 列為競爭廠商之一；住宅與都更開發同業。
  • 華建 2530 上市建商，MoneyDJ 列為競爭廠商之一；住宅不動產開發同業。
  • 興富發 2542 上市大型建商，MoneyDJ 列為競爭廠商之一；推案量大，產品涵蓋住宅、商辦與飯店等。
  • 日勝生 2547 上市建商，MoneyDJ 列為競爭廠商之一；具土地開發、捷運聯開及住宅開發經驗。
  • 坤悅開發 5206 上櫃中部建商，2025 年與櫻花建同為中部營建股營收成長代表，區域市場與首購自住產品具競爭關係。
  • 富華新 3056 上市中部營建同業，與櫻花建同受台中與中部房市景氣影響。
  • 大城地產 6171 上櫃中部建商，與櫻花建在台中、彰化等區域住宅市場具競爭關係。
  • 順天建設 5525 上櫃中部建商，台中區域住宅開發同業。
  • 富旺 6219 上櫃營建股，推案區域包含中部市場，與櫻花建部分產品及區域客群重疊。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.