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3105

穩懋 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 穩懋 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 17Quality 50Growth 81Momentum 94Chips 32

Is 穩懋 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 60th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.1%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 89th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 94th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.9% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 40.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.64
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 富邦證券 holds 7,119 lots
  • sellers have 6,114 lots left, ~670 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +144% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 富邦證券 has accumulated 7,119 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大證券 peaked at 6,905 lots, has sold 46%, 3,706 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.35pp, mid holders -1, retail +2.91pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -30,250 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
富邦證券凱基-台北國票-敦北法人國泰-敦南兆豐證券康和
Distributing
元大證券港商野村群益金鼎統一香港上海匯豐國泰證券
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利新加坡商瑞銀美林凱基
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 富邦證券 +7,119
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +5,132
    sold 23%· still adding
  • 國票-敦北法人 +2,056
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +1,679
    sold 24%
  • 兆豐證券 +1,395
    sold 8%
  • 康和 +1,004
    sold 18%

Distributing

  • 元大證券 3,706 left
    sold 46%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 1,605 left
    sold 62%· ~88 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎 1,068 left
    sold 73%· ~17 sessions to clear
  • 統一 2,280 left
    sold 39%· paused recently
  • 香港上海匯豐 257 left
    sold 87%· ~2 sessions to clear
  • 國泰證券 1,012 left
    sold 47%· paused recently

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -14,356
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -8,752
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美林 -3,981
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基 -3,449
    unclassified
Still selling 6,114 lots ~670 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +3,994 absorbed / -4,775 sold sellers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -30,210 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 40.29%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

74 historical occurrences (since 2011-12-13)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 58.3%, Sample 60, Median +1.93%, Excess +3.76%, Beat mkt rate 51.7%；60-day: Win 60.3%, Sample 58, Median +4.67%, Excess +9.4%, Beat mkt rate 55.2%；120-day: Win 50.9%, Sample 55, Median +1.23%, Excess +9.02%, Beat mkt rate 40%

120 days after: historical avg +18.04%

20-day +5.7%
60-day +15.08%
120-day +18.04%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.3%
60.3%
50.9%
Sample
60
58
55
Median
+1.93%
+4.67%
+1.23%
Excess
+3.76%
+9.4%
+9.02%
Beat mkt rate
51.7%
55.2%
40%

Over 55 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 18.04%, beat the market by 9.02 pts; win rate 50.9%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 69+97.9% +76.7% 95.7% +52.2%
20-40 258+97.2% +82.9% 77.9% +74%
40-60 469+49.6% +39.1% 80% +30.9%
60-80 550+30.2% +10% 56.7% +7.7%
80-100 You are here955+11.1% -3.8% 47.5% -4.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 99.43, at the 94.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+55.5%
Win rate 100% Excess +44.8%
34d
+17.6%
Win rate 71.8% Excess +7.3%
432d
Now
+24.6%
Win rate 48.7% Excess +15%
854d
60-day momentum down
+51.1%
Win rate 92.1% Excess +42.5%
189d
+13.1%
Win rate 66.2% Excess +9.5%
302d
+20.7%
Win rate 39.2% Excess +6.1%
610d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 854 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 24.6%, win rate 48.7%, beat the market by 15%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +12.29%, win rate 57.7%, beating the market by +6.83 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

52 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.75%, win rate 53.8%, beating the market by +5.49 pts on average.

What does 穩懋 do? Company profile

電子業－半導體；三五族化合物半導體、砷化鎵晶圓代工 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

3105 對應證券為穩懋半導體股份有限公司，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、特別股或權證。公司成立於 1999/10/16，總部位於桃園市龜山區華亞科技園區科技七路69號；官方公司簡介說明其位於林口華亞科技園區，是全球首座以六英吋晶圓生產砷化鎵微波積體電路（GaAs MMIC）的專業晶圓代工服務公司。掛牌日為 2011/12/13，上櫃；董事長為陳進財，總經理為陳國樺。Yahoo 股市資料顯示股本為新台幣 4,239,403,840 元、已發行普通股 423,940,384 股。2024 年年報揭露本公司 2024 年底員工約 2,927 人，2025/3/31 約 2,861 人。官方前十大股東資料日期 2025/3/30：國泰人壽 5.06%、中國信託商業銀行受託保管安華高科技國際行銷私人有限公司投資專戶 4.72%、天合興業 4.21%、陳進財 3.01%、葉國一 1.90%、員工持股會信託專戶 1.81%、葉力銓 1.81%、葉力誠 1.81%、南山人壽 1.39%、MFS 國際新探索基金保管專戶 1.38%。

Business

穩懋為三五族化合物半導體晶圓代工廠，主要提供砷化鎵與相關化合物半導體電路製程代工，並提供設計佈局支援、晶圓自動化電路測試、自動化檢驗等服務。2024 年年報揭露營收結構：晶圓代工新台幣 169.63362 億元、占 97.17%；其他新台幣 4.94351 億元、占 2.83%。主要製程包含 HBT、pHEMT、BiHEMT、GaN，以及光電元件製造能力；產品與製程可服務 50MHz 至 150GHz 無線傳輸系統，並延伸至光通訊與 3D 感測。主要終端應用包括 4G/5G 手機與平板的 PA、Wi-Fi 路由器與終端裝置、5G 基地台、低軌衛星通訊、航太/雷達、光通訊、資料中心、3D 感測、車用 LiDAR、AR/VR 與機器人感測。2026 年第一季法說簡報產品組合顯示：Cellular 約 30-35%、Infrastructure 約 30-35%、Wi-Fi 約 10-15%、Optical 約 5-10%、Others 約 17%。銷售地區方面，2024 年年報以客戶所在地揭露：亞洲 69.97%、美洲 18.43%、台灣內銷 6.01%、歐洲 5.59%。商業模式為專業晶圓代工，承接全球 RFIC 設計公司與 IDM 大廠委外製造需求；公司年報指出客戶認證週期長、轉換成本高，是產業進入障礙之一。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025-2028 年展望以公司年報、2026 年第一季法說及產業資料綜合判斷。2025 年：公司 2024 年年報董事長報告指出 2024 年營收年增約 10%，若不考慮國際政經外在變數，2025 年可望持續成長，A、B、C 三廠既有產能應足以因應全年客戶需求；後續會依實際量產進度適時啟動擴產。主要動能為 Wi-Fi 7 導入、AI 資料中心光通訊、低軌衛星、5G/後 5G 基礎建設與高階手機 PA。2026 年：官方 1Q26 法說新聞稿揭露 Q1 合併營收新台幣 45.90 億元，年增 28%、季減 4%，產能利用率約 60%；Q2 指引為合併營收季增 mid-teens 百分比、毛利率 high twenties。公司管理層表示 Cellular PA 聚焦中高階手機；AI 算力需求與技術升級帶動光傳輸，三五族化合物半導體在光傳輸模組扮演關鍵角色；Infrastructure 受惠航太衛星、Data Center、5G 基建與低軌衛星手機通訊需求。2027-2028 年：公司未發布量化財測；可確認的中長期方向包括 Wi-Fi 7 滲透率提升、高線性 HBT、GaN HEMT、InP HBT/EML/DFB/CW Laser、VCSEL、PD/APD、矽光子外部光源與光積體電路等技術開發。年報引用產業資料指出 2022-2028 年 VCSEL 市場產值具成長性，其中車用相關成長率較高；公司也聚焦 100G/200G 至 400G/800G、甚至 1.6T 高速傳輸需求。主要風險為全球政經與貿易壁壘、智慧手機需求波動、終端客戶分散供應商、記憶體短缺對部分路由器/終端需求影響、砷化鎵/磊晶片與貴金屬供應、匯率、產能利用率、產品組合變化、同業產能競爭，以及中國供應鏈與 IDM 自有產能競爭。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 全新光電科技股份有限公司 2455 台股上市三五族化合物半導體磊晶廠，屬砷化鎵/GaAs、磷化銦/InP 磊晶片上游；第三方資料指稱其客戶包含穩懋，但穩懋年報未揭露具名供應商，故此關係以產業鏈與第三方資料為準。
  • 砷化鎵磊晶片供應商 穩懋年報明確揭露主要原料為砷化鎵磊晶片；供應商名稱未完整公開，並說明重要進貨項目維持多家供應商以分散風險。
  • 貴金屬供應商 穩懋年報明確揭露主要原料包含貴金屬；具名供應商未公開。
  • 半導體設備、光罩、EDA與測試設備供應商 支援六吋砷化鎵、GaN、InP、光電元件製程與測試；穩懋官方服務頁揭露設計套件、光罩與晶圓測試服務，但未公開完整供應商名單。
Downstream
  • 全球 RFIC Design Houses 穩懋官方公司簡介明確指出客戶群包含全球射頻積體電路設計公司；多數為海外或未具名客戶，年報以甲公司、乙公司匿名揭露 10% 以上客戶。
  • 全球 IDM 大廠 穩懋官方公司簡介指出除 RFIC 設計公司外，也致力與全球整合元件製造大廠合作；具名客戶未公開。
  • Apple Inc. 美國上市終端品牌；年報與法說提及 iOS 供應鏈、手機 3D 感測與美系旗艦手機 Wi-Fi 7 升級帶動需求，但未公開確認 Apple 為直接客戶。
  • Android 中高階智慧型手機供應鏈 2026 年第一季法說指出 Cellular PA 受全球中高階手機機種需求回溫；多為未具名終端品牌或 RF 前端客戶。
  • Wi-Fi 路由器與無線網通設備供應鏈 Wi-Fi 6E/7 升級提升 PA 需求，穩懋產品應用於無線網路路由器與手持式裝置；客戶未具名。
  • AI 資料中心與光通訊模組供應鏈 年報與 2026 年法說均指出 AI 資料中心、光通訊、矽光子與高速傳輸需求為重點成長方向；具名客戶未公開。
  • 低軌衛星、航太、5G 基建與雷達供應鏈 年報與法說指出 Infrastructure 包含航太衛星、Data Center、5G 基建、低軌衛星通訊等應用；客戶未具名。

Competitors

  • 宏捷科技股份有限公司 8086 台股上櫃砷化鎵晶圓代工廠，與穩懋在 GaAs RF/PA、Wi-Fi、智慧型手機與無線通訊晶圓代工市場競爭。
  • 環宇通訊半導體控股股份有限公司（環宇-KY） 4991 台股上櫃化合物半導體晶圓代工與光電元件廠，涵蓋 GaAs、InP、GaN 等射頻與光電應用，與穩懋在部分化合物半導體代工與光通訊領域競爭。
  • 三安光電股份有限公司 中國 A 股上市公司，從事化合物半導體、LED、射頻與光電相關業務；非台股掛牌，stock_id 依規範填 null。
  • Wavetek Microelectronics 砷化鎵/化合物半導體晶圓代工產業參與者，非台股掛牌或未確認台股掛牌，stock_id 填 null。
  • Skyworks Solutions, Inc. 美國上市 RF 前端/PA IDM 與模組大廠，部分產品可由自有產能或外包代工供應；屬廣義競爭與下游客戶類型交錯的產業參與者，非台股掛牌。
  • Qorvo, Inc. 美國上市 RF 前端/PA IDM 與模組大廠，具自有製造與外包策略；非台股掛牌。
  • Broadcom Inc. 美國上市半導體大廠，RF/無線連接與相關供應鏈具影響力；年報中出現安華高科技國際行銷私人有限公司投資專戶為主要股東之一，但未代表營運客戶關係。
Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.