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4739

康普 Chemicals As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 康普 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 35Quality 70Growth 95Momentum 90Chips 58

Is 康普 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 70th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.2%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 69th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 62th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.3% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 140.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.65
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 富邦-建國 holds 1,089 lots
  • sellers have 3,448 lots left, ~170 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +64% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 富邦-建國 has accumulated 1,089 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 2,236 lots, has sold 71%, 659 left, ~10 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +5.64pp, mid holders +5, retail -4.10pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,350 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
富邦-建國凱基-信義元大-大天母國泰-敦南國票-北高雄元富-緯城
Distributing
凱基-台北摩根大通台灣摩根士丹利元大證券國票證券永豐金-大園
Desks
own scale
美商高盛福邦證券花旗環球台新-緯城
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 富邦-建國 +1,089
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-信義 +999
    sold 7%· still adding
  • 元大-大天母 +610
    sold 11%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +604
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國票-北高雄 +500
    sold 0%
  • 元富-緯城 +466
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 659 left
    sold 71%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 683 left
    sold 61%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 978 left
    sold 41%· ~32 sessions to clear
  • 元大證券 850 left
    sold 28%· paused recently
  • 國票證券 289 left
    sold 65%· ~170 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-大園 218 left
    sold 70%· ~10 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 美商高盛 -2,019
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 福邦證券 -1,839
    unclassified
  • 花旗環球 -478
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 台新-緯城 -465
    unclassified
Still selling 3,448 lots ~170 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,986 absorbed / -2,380 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -2,314 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 140.95%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

73 historical occurrences (since 2011-12-01)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 60.3%, Sample 63, Median +2.15%, Excess +2.15%, Beat mkt rate 52.4%；60-day: Win 57.4%, Sample 61, Median +6.16%, Excess +5.35%, Beat mkt rate 52.5%；120-day: Win 51.7%, Sample 58, Median +0.65%, Excess +10.1%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +13.94%

20-day +3.41%
60-day +8.11%
120-day +13.94%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
60.3%
57.4%
51.7%
Sample
63
61
58
Median
+2.15%
+6.16%
+0.65%
Excess
+2.15%
+5.35%
+10.1%
Beat mkt rate
52.4%
52.5%
50%

Over 58 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 13.94%, beat the market by 10.1 pts; win rate 51.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 220+57.5% +5.5% 64.1% +37.9%
20-40 336+16.5% -15.3% 33.9% -9%
40-60 430+19.3% -23.3% 42.8% +0.8%
60-80 You are here744+16.2% -12.1% 46.8% +2.5%
80-100 600+21.3% +3.5% 52.8% -6.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 38.32, at the 62.4th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-1.2%
Win rate 24.8% Excess -10.3%
113d
Now
+19.2%
Win rate 41.5% Excess +16%
402d
+16.3%
Win rate 62.6% Excess +3.8%
673d
60-day momentum down
+16.1%
Win rate 67.8% Excess +7.8%
338d
+1.2%
Win rate 35.6% Excess -4.3%
385d
-1.9%
Win rate 33.8% Excess -18.8%
539d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 402 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 19.2%, win rate 41.5%, beat the market by 16%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +15.63%, win rate 73.7%, beating the market by +9.86 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

42 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.84%, win rate 63.4%, beating the market by +4.94 pts on average.

What does 康普 do? Company profile

化學工業 上市

Overview

康普材料科技股份有限公司成立於1992年6月16日，總部位於新竹縣湖口鄉文化路11號／新竹產業園區文化路11號，股票代號4739，2011年12月1日上櫃、2017年9月8日轉上市，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司董事長為何基丞，總經理為何柏樟；公司官方揭露實收資本額為1,246,493仟元，集團員工人數500餘人。公司定位為金屬基礎特用化學品及電子／電池材料製造商，主要產品為以鈷、錳、鎳為主之金屬化合物特用化學品和電子材料。主要股東依公司114年3月30日前十大股東表包括常興投資14,977,609股、12.58%；澄瑞實業14,455,940股、12.14%；中國信託商銀受託康普員工持股會信託財產專戶1,045,000股、0.88%；福友私募股權有限合夥1,000,000股、0.84%；何基丞984,966股、0.83%；何美芳875,979股、0.74%；劉若文674,570股、0.57%；天弘化學673,495股、0.57%；許義閔665,000股、0.56%；何基兆663,644股、0.56%。集團旗下包括康普本體、天弘化學與恆誼化工等，並有台灣新竹、頭份、台中、中國寧波／漳州、泰國及越南等生產據點。

Business

康普集團業務分為氧化觸媒、動力電池材料、化學肥料、特用化學材料與其他。2025年第二季累計營收結構為動力電池材料1,346,786仟元、54%；特用化學材料428,005仟元、17%；氧化觸媒392,856仟元、16%；肥料239,438仟元、9%；其他97,224仟元、4%，總營收2,504,309仟元。氧化觸媒產品包含醋酸鈷、醋酸錳、醋酸鈷錳溶液、醋酸鈷錳溴溶液等，用於PTA、DMT、IPA、TMA、PET等石化與聚酯製程。動力電池材料為鋰離子電池正極材料前驅物原料，包含電池級硫酸鎳、硫酸鈷、氧化鈷、氫氧化鈷，應用於可攜式裝置電池、電動車電池與電子產業。特用化學材料包含電子級硫酸、工業級硫酸、ITO蝕刻液、鉻蝕刻液、草酸、氯化亞錫與鈷／錳化合物，終端應用涵蓋半導體、顯示器、傳統化工、輪胎、色料、油漆、玻璃陶瓷等。肥料產品包含化學複合肥料與有機質複合肥料。商業模式以金屬化學品加工、客製化規格製造、客戶驗證後長期供貨為主，動力電池材料受惠日系、韓系、歐系車用電池與車廠客戶放量；電子級硫酸則透過日商夥伴分工銷售配送，供應半導體客戶。2025年全年合併營收61.9111億元，年增51.17%；2026年1月至5月單月營收分別為8.8881億元、6.6719億元、8.1473億元、10.2689億元、11.5955億元，顯示動力電池材料與電子級硫酸拉貨仍為近期主軸。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年主要成長動能在三條線：第一，動力電池材料。公司2025年法說指出，動力電池材料營收占比已回升至五成以上，受惠日系、韓系新客戶與車廠客戶放量，硫酸鎳出貨顯著成長，並可依市場需求在硫酸鈷與硫酸鎳產能間調整。IEA全球電動車展望指出電池材料需求由2024年約1TWh往2030年約3TWh成長，公司簡報引用此趨勢，對2025至2028年的高鎳三元電池供應鏈仍具支持。第二，越南VINACOREMAX新廠。越南廣寧新廠2025年9月17日開幕，聚焦三元鋰電池正極材料關鍵原料硫酸鎳，公開報導稱設計年產能約2.5萬噸，將進行試產、客戶稽核與樣品驗證；若2026至2028年逐步通過客戶認證並放量，可分散台灣產能、降低地緣與關稅成本，並服務日韓及歐洲電池廠商。第三，電子級硫酸與特化材料。先進製程、AI伺服器與晶圓代工擴產提升高階電子級硫酸需求，公司法說與媒體資料均指出電子級硫酸需求強勁。主要風險包括全球電動車補貼與需求放緩、LFP或鈉離子等低鎳／無鈷技術路線提高滲透率、鈷鎳金屬價格與匯率大幅波動、客戶驗證進度不如預期、越南新廠爬坡與良率風險、中國及韓國大型材料廠價格競爭、半導體化學品規格升級壓力，以及公司2025年曾受匯率與一次性業外因素影響，未來仍需觀察避險與營運資金管理。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 鈷金屬及鈷中間品供應商 電池材料、氧化觸媒與特用化學品主要原料來源；公開資料僅確認原料類別，未確認個別供應商名稱。
  • 鎳金屬及鎳中間品供應商 電池級硫酸鎳主要原料來源；受國際鎳價、非中供應鏈與客戶採購策略影響。
  • 硫酸銨、尿素及硫酸／肥料相關原料供應商 肥料與硫酸產品主要原料來源；公開資料僅確認原料類別，未確認個別供應商名稱。
  • 電池回收料及金屬回收來源 天弘化學具鈷萃取與電池回收／鈷精煉加工能力，可由鈷中間品或回收料萃取鈷作為硫酸鈷生產來源。
Downstream
  • Panasonic 日本企業；公開資料指出為康普電池材料重要客戶，並曾透過Panasonic間接進入Tesla供應鏈。
  • Tesla 美國上市公司；公開資料稱康普曾透過Panasonic間接供應Tesla供應鏈，非直接台股客戶。
  • 台積電 2330 電子級硫酸終端半導體客戶；公開報導稱康普子公司恆誼化工產品由三菱化學相關日商夥伴銷售配送後供應，康普亦說明不直接供應台積電海外廠。
  • 聯電 2303 電子級硫酸終端半導體客戶；公開資料稱透過日商夥伴精煉／銷售配送後供應國內半導體廠。
  • 台化 1326 PTA氧化觸媒客戶之一；公開資料列為PTA氧化觸媒客戶。
  • 遠東新 1402 遠東集團為PTA／聚酯相關終端客戶群；公開資料列為氧化觸媒客戶群。
  • 日韓及歐洲電池廠商／車廠 非特定台股掛牌公司；公司與媒體資料指出越南新廠及台灣產線將出口供應日韓與歐洲電池廠商，並受惠日系、韓系與歐系車廠放量。
  • 太洋新技／三菱化學集團相關公司 日本企業；恆誼化工硫酸產品配合日商太洋新技／三菱化學集團需求擴增，由其後段精煉、銷售配送至半導體客戶。

Competitors

  • 美琪瑪 4721 台股上市化學工業公司，與康普同為PTA氧化觸媒、鈷鎳電池材料與特用化學品相關競爭對手。
  • 中華化 1727 台股上市化學公司，公開資料列為硫酸相關競爭者，亦被市場視為電子級硫酸受惠供應鏈。
  • 台肥 1722 台股上市肥料與化工公司，為肥料產品競爭對手。
  • 東鹼 1708 台股上市化工公司，屬肥料／化工相關同業，部分市場題材與肥料業務競爭。
  • 聚和 6509 台股上櫃化學公司，市場資料常與車用電池與特化材料族群並列，屬部分材料應用競爭或替代同業。
  • Umicore 比利時上市公司；公開資料列為氫氧化鈷等產品國際競爭者。
  • 華友鈷業 中國A股上市公司；公開資料列為鈷系材料國際競爭者，非台股掛牌。
  • Freeport／Shepherd Chemical 海外公司；公開資料列為氫氧化鈷等金屬化學品國際競爭者，非台股掛牌。
Sources（23）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.