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5515

建國 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation.

2 active signals

252d high Revenue ≥20%

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 建國 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 建國 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 71th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 7.2%.
Valuation is low.PE is in the 3th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 11th percentile.
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 9.8% of volume (net buy).
Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 22.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.84

BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
美商高盛 holds 1,482 lots
sellers have 331 lots left, ~65 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +27% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 1,482 lots since the start (sold 17%), still adding.
Main distributor 新加坡商瑞銀 peaked at 912 lots, has sold 63%, 333 left, paused recently.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.45pp, mid holders +2, retail -2.61pp — concentration shifting upward.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -346 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利元大-內湖合庫-高雄摩根大通凱基-台北

Distributing

新加坡商瑞銀美林群益金鼎統一元大-新店中正兆豐-三重

Desks

own scale

國泰-高雄國票-南京台新-高雄新光

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

美商高盛 +1,482

sold 17%· still adding
台灣摩根士丹利 +1,342

sold 0%· still adding
元大-內湖 +1,024

sold 2%
合庫-高雄 +848

sold 0%
摩根大通 +653

sold 10%
凱基-台北 +564

sold 18%· still adding

Distributing

新加坡商瑞銀 333 left

sold 63%· paused recently
美林 498 left

sold 28%· paused recently
群益金鼎 22 left

sold 88%· paused recently
統一 65 left

sold 47%· ~65 sessions to clear
元大-新店中正 66 left

sold 40%· ~41 sessions to clear
兆豐-三重 31 left

sold 69%· ~5 sessions to clear

Desks

國泰-高雄 -584

unclassified
國票-南京 -570

unclassified
台新-高雄 -530

unclassified
新光 -528

unclassified

Still selling 331 lots ~65 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +1,634 absorbed / -410 sold buyers slightly ahead

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

31 historical occurrences (since 2009-05-27)

120 days after: historical avg +5.62%

20-day -1.39%

60-day +1.08%

120-day +5.62%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

40%

48.3%

55.2%

Sample

Median

-2.61%

-0.64%

+4.74%

Excess

-0.82%

-1.57%

-2.94%

Beat mkt rate

36.7%

37.9%

34.5%

Over 29 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.62%, lagged the market by 2.94 pts; win rate 55.2%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 22.37%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

80 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)

120 days after: historical avg +8.24%

20-day +0.65%

60-day +5.2%

120-day +8.24%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

47.8%

59.1%

61.5%

Sample

Median

-0.44%

+2.13%

+3.08%

Excess

+0.12%

+1.44%

+0.13%

Beat mkt rate

46.3%

34.8%

36.9%

Over 65 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.24%, beat the market by 0.13 pts; win rate 61.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 -7.2% Now

20-40 +8%

40-60 +25.7%

60-80 +25.6%

80-100 +7.5%

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here	109	-7.2%	-9.4%	12.8%	-8.1%
20-40	640	+8%	-0.4%	48%	-9.9%
40-60	549	+25.7%	+16%	96.5%	-2.9%
60-80	799	+25.6%	+21.4%	75%	+6.1%
80-100	600	+7.5%	-5.4%	45%	-4.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 7.21, at the 11.0th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

Now

+0.9%

Win rate 51.1% Excess -5%

468d

+15.4%

Win rate 77% Excess -0.5%

591d

+8.6%

Win rate 66.3% Excess +2.7%

603d

60-day momentum down

+10.8%

Win rate 56.5% Excess +0.8%

209d

+11.4%

Win rate 63.4% Excess +0.8%

519d

+1.7%

Win rate 44.5% Excess -6.6%

427d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 468 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 0.9%, win rate 51.1%, lagged the market by 5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

70 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.26%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -0.7 pts on average.

What does 建國 do? Company profile

建材營造／營建工程／營造承攬台灣證券交易所上市（TWSE）

Overview

5515 對應證券為建國工程股份有限公司普通股，市場別為上市。公司前身可追溯至 1931 年陳火生創辦之合發商行，1946 年改組為建國營造廠，1960 年取得甲級營造廠資格並更名為建國工程股份有限公司；公開資料亦列公司成立日為 1960/11/21。總部位於台北市大安區敦化南路二段67號20樓。董事長為吳昌修，總經理為甘茂盛，發言人為孔思嘉。曾於 1999/02/01 上櫃，2003/10/06 轉上市。最新可查公開資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣20.16億元、普通股約201,600,084股；104人力銀行揭露員工人數約500人，此為徵才平台資料，非交易所正式員工統計。主要股東與董監持股方面，公開資料可見建輝投資事業股份有限公司、陳啟德、陳宸慶等為重要持股者；2024 年董監改選公告揭露陳啟德持股18,844,139股、建輝投資代表人席次持股46,011,532股、陳宸慶持股14,285,515股，Goodinfo 2025 年董監持股摘要亦顯示建輝投資約46,012張、陳啟德約18,844張。

Business

建國工程為營造承攬公司，主要業務為設計、監修、承造各種大小工程及買賣建築材料。公司核心產品不是標準化商品，而是工程服務與統包工程，類型包含住宅建設、社會住宅、商辦大樓、旅館、科技廠房、公共建築、醫療大樓、文教衛福設施等。MoneyDJ 依公司年報整理指出 2024 年營收比重為工程100%；玉山證券資料顯示 2025 年營收比重為工程99.99%、其他0.01%。2025 年年報文字資料顯示 2025 年營業收入淨額約新台幣70.96億元，年增約15.92%，營業毛利約11.81億元，營業利益約7.30億元，本期淨利約9.04億元；毛利增加主因為部分統包社宅案及商辦廠房處於階段性大量施工階段。公司商業模式以承攬公共與民間建築工程、依工程進度與合約認列收入為主，工期、原物料成本、分包成本、勞動力、工程品質與安全管理是獲利關鍵。下游客戶包含政府機關與公法人、建設公司、壽險業者、企業廠辦業主；公司官網案例列示國家住宅及都市更新中心、桃園市政府住宅發展處、新北市政府城鄉發展局、臺北市都市發展局、國泰建設、富邦人壽、承鼎精密等業主。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望偏向中高能見度但需留意成本與景氣風險。成長動能包括：一、公共工程與社會住宅，公司 2025 股東會相關報導指出公共工程仍為未來成長動力，2025 年承攬重心為商辦／廠辦與社宅，且社宅過往實績有助於爭取新北、高雄等地案源；二、商辦、廠辦與科技產業建廠需求，若台灣半導體與高科技供應鏈持續投資，廠辦工程可帶來承攬機會，但關稅與全球景氣可能間接影響企業投資；三、在手工程支撐營收能見度，2025 年 6 月財訊快報報導公司在建工程21案，住宅5案、公共工程9案、廠辦7案，總承攬額552億元、在建工程案量383億元，公司規劃 2025 年三大業務工程承攬量約100至150億元；四、工法與效率提升，公司官網揭露其發展高強度鋼筋工法、鋁模系統、節能設計，並結合創建機電與鋁模事業以強化一體化整合能力，報導亦提及以鋁模取代木模、減少泥作工作量以因應缺工。主要風險包括房市信用管制使民間住宅推案減少、營建缺工常態化、鋼筋／水泥／砂石／混凝土與分包成本波動、公共工程投標競爭導致毛利壓力、工期延誤與安全風險、極端氣候造成施工與供應鏈延誤，以及綠色建材要求提高但業主預算未同步增加時可能壓縮營造廠利潤。2026 至 2028 年具體營收與獲利數字未見公司正式公開預測，以上為依在手案、產業政策與公開訪談推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream

中鋼 2002 鋼筋、鋼構與鋼材為建築工程主要原料之一；中鋼為台股上市鋼鐵代表公司，未確認為建國工程直接供應商。
東和鋼鐵 2006 型鋼、鋼筋等建材供應鏈代表公司；未確認為建國工程直接供應商。
豐興 2015 鋼筋與型鋼供應鏈代表公司；未確認為建國工程直接供應商。
台泥 1101 水泥為建築工程主要原料之一；台泥為台股上市水泥代表公司，未確認為建國工程直接供應商。
亞泥 1102 水泥供應鏈代表公司；未確認為建國工程直接供應商。
國產 2504 預拌混凝土與建材供應鏈代表公司；未確認為建國工程直接供應商。
專業分包商與機電、模板、土方、砂石供應商年報／產業資料指出建築工程重要投入包含砂石、混凝土、水泥、鋼筋鋼構及專業發包工程；多數專案分包商未逐一公開，故 stock_id 設為 null。

Downstream

國家住宅及都市更新中心社會住宅業主／公法人，非台股上市櫃公司；公司官網列示崇實安居等社宅案業主。
桃園市政府住宅發展處社會住宅業主／政府機關，非上市櫃公司；公司官網列示平鎮一號、楊梅一號基地社宅案。
新北市政府城鄉發展局公共住宅／青年社宅業主，政府機關，非上市櫃公司。
臺北市都市發展局公共住宅統包工程業主，政府機關，非上市櫃公司。
國泰建設 2501 民間住宅／建築工程業主；公司官網列示國泰華威豐年案業主為國泰建設。
富邦人壽保險股份有限公司壽險業建築工程業主；公司官網列示富邦人壽長春段主體新建總包工程。富邦人壽本身非台股上市公司，其母集團富邦金控為上市公司但此處不以母公司代填。
承鼎精密股份有限公司科技廠房業主；公司官網列示承鼎精密廠房新建工程。公開資料未確認其為台股上市櫃公司。

Competitors

工信 5521 MoneyDJ 列為建國工程同業主要競爭者之一，屬營建工程同業。
中工 2515 MoneyDJ 列為同業主要競爭者之一，為大型營造與工程承攬公司。
欣陸 3703 MoneyDJ 列為同業主要競爭者之一，旗下包含營造與工程相關事業。
隆大 5519 MoneyDJ 列為同業主要競爭者之一，營建工程與建設相關同業。
新建 2516 MoneyDJ 列為同業主要競爭者之一，營造工程同業。
達欣工 2535 MoneyDJ 列為同業主要競爭者之一，公共工程、住宅商辦、廠房工程承攬競爭者。
德昌 5511 MoneyDJ 列為同業主要競爭者之一，上櫃營造公司。
潤弘 2597 MoneyDJ 列為同業主要競爭者之一，具工程與營造承攬能力。
雙喜 5516 MoneyDJ 列為同業主要競爭者之一，上櫃營造公司。
久舜 5547 MoneyDJ 列為同業主要競爭者之一，上櫃營造公司。

Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.