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6202

盛群 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 盛群 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 23Quality 50Growth 46Momentum 72Chips 86

Is 盛群 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 51th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.8%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 89th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 94th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 7.8% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.93
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 國泰證券 holds 4,838 lots
  • sellers have 1,994 lots left, ~198 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +63% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 國泰證券 has accumulated 4,838 lots since the start (sold 3%), holding.
  • Main distributor 元大證券 peaked at 1,622 lots, has sold 27%, 1,182 left, ~40 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.88pp, mid holders +9, retail -4.00pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -259 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
國泰證券凱基-台北美商高盛新加坡商瑞銀台灣摩根士丹利合庫-基隆
Distributing
元大證券元富-西松新光-台中群益金鼎永豐金-大園兆豐-新莊
Desks
own scale
中國信託-新竹新光群益金鼎-東湖台新-西松
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 國泰證券 +4,838
    sold 3%
  • 凱基-台北 +3,661
    sold 14%
  • 美商高盛 +3,443
    sold 13%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +2,548
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +1,702
    sold 10%· still adding
  • 合庫-基隆 +724
    sold 11%

Distributing

  • 元大證券 1,182 left
    sold 27%· ~40 sessions to clear
  • 元富-西松 572 left
    sold 33%· paused recently
  • 新光-台中 98 left
    sold 87%· paused recently
  • 群益金鼎 347 left
    sold 54%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-大園 47 left
    sold 89%· paused recently
  • 兆豐-新莊 241 left
    sold 41%· paused recently

Desks

  • 中國信託-新竹 -741
    unclassified
  • 新光 -716
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎-東湖 -592
    unclassified
  • 台新-西松 -568
    unclassified
Still selling 1,994 lots ~198 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +7,186 absorbed / -743 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -105 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

25 historical occurrences (since 2009-09-03)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 54.2%, Sample 24, Median +0.78%, Excess +0.51%, Beat mkt rate 41.7%；60-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 24, Median +3.04%, Excess -0.05%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 78.3%, Sample 23, Median +12.43%, Excess +10.97%, Beat mkt rate 52.2%

120 days after: historical avg +18.27%

20-day +1.71%
60-day +3.85%
120-day +18.27%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.2%
62.5%
78.3%
Sample
24
24
23
Median
+0.78%
+3.04%
+12.43%
Excess
+0.51%
-0.05%
+10.97%
Beat mkt rate
41.7%
50%
52.2%

Over 23 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 18.27%, beat the market by 10.97 pts; win rate 78.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 358-5.4% -7.6% 32.7% -15.9%
20-40 114+22.9% +20% 80.7% +8.5%
40-60 389+28.4% +17.7% 89.5% +10.1%
60-80 751+21.5% +11.4% 81.1% +8%
80-100 You are here1176+6.8% -3.7% 44.1% -17.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 99.09, at the 94.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-7.3%
Win rate 32.9% Excess -9.9%
82d
+16.2%
Win rate 78.2% Excess +9.5%
418d
Now
+7.8%
Win rate 58% Excess -1.2%
1231d
60-day momentum down
+0.6%
Win rate 50% Excess -0.9%
344d
+12.2%
Win rate 91.5% Excess +3.9%
258d
+1.4%
Win rate 48.2% Excess -15.6%
575d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1231 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 7.8%, win rate 58%, lagged the market by 1.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

47 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.78%, win rate 55.6%, beating the market by -3.88 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

65 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.95%, win rate 50.8%, beating the market by -1.16 pts on average.

What does 盛群 do? Company profile

半導體業；IC設計；微控制器 MCU 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

6202 對應盛群半導體，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1998 年 10 月 1 日，總部位於新竹科學園區新竹市研新二路 3 號，股票曾於 2002 年 11 月 4 日上櫃，2004 年 9 月 27 日轉上市。董事長為吳啟勇，總經理為蔡榮宗；發言人為潘建州。主要營業項目為各種積體電路之研究、設計開發、製造及銷售。公開資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣 23.04 億元、已發行普通股約 230,388,200 股。2026 年 3 月 31 日員工數約 534 人，其中工程人員 418 人、管理人員 112 人、生產測試人員 4 人。主要股東方面，2026 年 3 月 27 日年報揭露聯華電子持股約 9.61%，高國棟約 3.27%，另有柏康投資、柏鼎投資、吳啟勇家族相關持股與外資保管帳戶；年報文字抽取對部分前十大股東名稱不完整，故僅列可辨識者。2025 年公司合併營收新台幣 30.58 億元，年增 22.2%，毛利率 38.9%，歸屬母公司稅後盈餘 1.73 億元，EPS 0.76 元，已由 2024 年虧損轉為獲利。

Business

盛群是專業 MCU IC 設計公司，商業模式以 IC 設計、產品規劃、銷售與技術支援為主，晶圓製造、封裝與測試多採委外代工。主要產品包括 8 位元與 32 位元微控制器 MCU、MCU 週邊 IC、顯示驅動 IC、電源管理 IC、射頻 RF IC、感測與專用模組、ASSP/ASIC MCU 解決方案。2025 年 MCU 銷售金額約新台幣 23.3 億元，占整體營收約 76%，全年 MCU 出貨量約 4.02 億顆，年增 17%。按地區，2025 年銷售以中國地區為主，約占 74%，台灣約 10%，其他海外約 16%。終端應用涵蓋家電、小家電、健康護理與健康量測、安防與消防、工業儀表控制、觸控、通訊、電腦周邊、顯示驅動、汽機車、BLDC 馬達控制、電源管理、RF 聯網、NFC 金融卡、電動二輪/三輪車充電器、儲能與電池管理等。2026 年第一季法說資料顯示，單季 MCU 銷售額約 6.2 億元、出貨量 108 百萬顆；應用比重中安防約 17%、小家電約 17%、健康產品約 11%。產品結構方面，2026 年第一季 8-bit MCU 仍占出貨量約 85%、銷售金額約 75%，32-bit MCU 占出貨量約 15%、銷售金額約 25%，32-bit 平均單價約為 8-bit 的兩倍。主要銷貨客戶/通路年報揭露包括欣宏、NEWTEK、CROWN RICH 等，且多為採權益法評價之被投資公司；因契約或揭露限制，終端客戶多未具名。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年盛群已自庫存調整與價格競爭壓力中回到成長獲利，全年營收與獲利優於 2024 年。2026 年展望以安防、健康量測、BLDC 馬達控制、消防、電磁爐/小家電、電源與儲能應用、32-bit MCU 產品升級為主要動能。公司 2026 年第一季法說指出，訂單能見度較 2025 年改善，約 50% 訂單可看至三個月、約 30% 可看至半年，第二季業績預期優於第一季，全年營收可望較 2025 年成長。安防產品受北美客戶、中國新安規、韓國認證與汰換需求帶動；健康產品受中國八電極體脂秤與電子/紅外線體溫計換機需求支撐；電磁爐晶片因中東能源供應不穩使電加熱產品需求增加。新產品與技術方面，公司持續提高 32-bit MCU 比重，安防產品已全面導入 32-bit 方案；並布局 Arm Cortex-M4 32-bit MCU、Edge AI、CGM 連續血糖監測、卡片式血壓計、體成分分析、智慧消防、環境感測、BLDC 馬達、BMS、太陽能/儲能逆變、RF/BLE/Sub-1GHz/NFC 模組等。2027 至 2028 的中期展望可望受惠於全球 MCU 由 8-bit/通用型往 32-bit、ASSP、Edge AI、工控、健康照護、綠能與精密馬達控制升級；公司亦指出 AI 伺服器散熱風扇 MCU 已導入國內某大廠三款產品設計，預計 2027 年起大量出貨，光通訊模組則配合國內 ODM 廠開發並送終端認證。印度市場方面，BLDC 吊扇與冰櫃壓縮機馬達開始量產或接單，有助分散中國市場風險。主要風險包括中國 MCU 廠低價競爭與自主化、成熟製程產能與價格波動、晶圓代工與封測漲價 5% 至 10%、投片與封測交期拉長、美國關稅與地緣政治、終端消費復甦有限、產品世代快速替換、客戶與通路庫存變化、匯率波動，以及高階醫療/安防/車用等應用驗證週期長且量產時程具不確定性。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 聯華電子 2303 主要晶圓代工合作夥伴；2026 年第一季法說指出盛群目前投片近八成集中於聯電，長期合作使產能額度較有保障。
  • 台積電 2330 年報列為晶圓代工資源之一；與盛群建立長期產品開發與生產合作關係。
  • 漢磊 3707 年報列為晶圓代工資源之一；提供半導體晶圓製造/代工支援。
  • 旺宏 2337 年報列為晶圓代工資源之一；提供晶圓代工/製程資源。
  • 超豐電子 2441 年報列為封裝與測試合作廠之一，提供封裝產能與測試技術設備。
  • 華泰電子 2329 年報列為封裝合作廠之一，與盛群以長期產能分工模式合作。
  • 日月光投控 3711 年報列為日月光封裝合作資源；此處以台股掛牌之日月光投控作為對應上市公司。
  • 久元電子 6261 年報列為測試合作廠之一，提供測試技術與設備。
Downstream
  • 欣宏電子 年報揭露之主要銷貨客戶/通路之一，2025 年銷貨占比約 16%，為盛群採權益法評價之被投資公司；未查得台股上市櫃代號。
  • NEWTEK Electronics Ltd. 年報揭露之主要銷貨客戶/通路之一，2025 年銷貨占比約 14%，為盛群採權益法評價之被投資公司；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • CROWN RICH Technology Holding Ltd. 年報揭露之主要銷貨客戶/通路之一，2025 年銷貨占比約 9%，為盛群採權益法評價之被投資公司；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 國內某 AI 伺服器散熱客戶 2026 年第一季法說提及 AI 伺服器散熱風扇 MCU 已導入國內某大廠三款產品設計，客戶名稱未公開。
  • 國內 ODM 光通訊模組客戶 2026 年第一季法說提及盛群正配合國內 ODM 大廠開發光通訊模組相關方案，預計送終端認證；客戶名稱未公開。

Competitors

  • 新唐科技 4919 台股上市 MCU 與混合訊號 IC 廠，產品涵蓋微控制器、音訊、電源與雲端安全等，與盛群在 MCU/控制 IC 市場部分競爭。
  • 凌通科技 4952 台股上市 IC 設計公司，產品含 MCU、多媒體控制與語音相關 IC，與盛群在消費性控制 IC、家電與應用型 MCU 市場部分重疊。
  • 松翰科技 5471 台股上櫃 IC 設計公司，產品含 MCU、影像與消費性控制 IC，與盛群在消費性 MCU 與家電/周邊控制應用競爭。
  • 義隆電子 2458 台股上市人機介面、觸控與控制 IC 廠，部分觸控 MCU、PC 周邊與控制 IC 應用與盛群重疊。
  • 偉詮電子 2436 台股上市 IC 設計公司，產品含 USB、電源管理、控制 IC 與部分 MCU 應用，與盛群在電源、周邊控制與消費性 IC 市場部分競爭。
  • 笙泉科技 3122 台股上櫃 MCU IC 設計公司，與盛群在 8-bit/32-bit MCU 與消費性控制應用具直接競爭關係。
  • 九齊科技 6494 台股上櫃 MCU 與語音 IC 設計公司，與盛群在小家電、玩具、教育與消費性控制 IC 市場部分競爭。
  • 中穎電子 中國大陸上市 MCU 與家電控制 IC 廠，非台股掛牌；與盛群在中國家電、BMS、馬達控制與消費性 MCU 市場競爭。
Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.