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6285

啟碁 Communications & Internet As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 啟碁 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 32Quality 57Growth 77Momentum 89Chips 45

Is 啟碁 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 44th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.3%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 70th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 0.0% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 34.8%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.47
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 holds 9,797 lots
  • sellers have 23,360 lots left, ~86 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +128% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 新加坡商瑞銀 has accumulated 9,797 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 17,902 lots, has sold 44%, 10,048 left, ~20 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +3.31pp, mid holders +40, retail -5.86pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -171 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
新加坡商瑞銀美林花旗環球凱基-台北香港上海匯豐永豐金-匯立
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛港商野村摩根大通永豐金證券凱基
Desks
own scale
富邦證券元大證券統一凱基-土城
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +9,797
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美林 +8,609
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +4,479
    sold 3%
  • 凱基-台北 +4,164
    sold 24%
  • 香港上海匯豐 +3,879
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 永豐金-匯立 +2,216
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 10,048 left
    sold 44%· ~20 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 2,536 left
    sold 72%· ~19 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 6,239 left
    sold 29%· ~86 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 1,935 left
    sold 46%· ~19 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金證券 945 left
    sold 66%· ~23 sessions to clear
  • 凱基 258 left
    sold 89%· ~4 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 富邦證券 -8,558
    unclassified
  • 元大證券 -4,055
    unclassified
  • 統一 -3,294
    unclassified
  • 凱基-土城 -2,597
    unclassified
Still selling 23,360 lots ~86 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +4,932 absorbed / -9,793 sold sellers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 34.82%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

75 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 59%, Sample 61, Median +2.72%, Excess +2.02%, Beat mkt rate 55.7%；60-day: Win 63.9%, Sample 61, Median +4.05%, Excess +4.54%, Beat mkt rate 59%；120-day: Win 65.6%, Sample 61, Median +9.76%, Excess +7.85%, Beat mkt rate 52.5%

120 days after: historical avg +11.4%

20-day +2.71%
60-day +6.34%
120-day +11.4%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
59%
63.9%
65.6%
Sample
61
61
61
Median
+2.72%
+4.05%
+9.76%
Excess
+2.02%
+4.54%
+7.85%
Beat mkt rate
55.7%
59%
52.5%

Over 61 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 11.4%, beat the market by 7.85 pts; win rate 65.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 148+63% +70.3% 100% +32.4%
20-40 445+21.8% +11.5% 70.3% +3.1%
40-60 721+20.4% +8.8% 71.6% +2.1%
60-80 666+8.1% +3.9% 58.4% -10.5%
80-100 You are here1063+12.2% +7.6% 64.6% +1.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 39.9, at the 99.4th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+33.8%
Win rate 90.6% Excess +23.2%
171d
+5.9%
Win rate 56.9% Excess -4.5%
524d
Now
+0.4%
Win rate 44% Excess -6.7%
1108d
60-day momentum down
+21.2%
Win rate 77.1% Excess +14.3%
223d
+21.2%
Win rate 77.9% Excess +10%
661d
+11.2%
Win rate 66% Excess +5.6%
476d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1108 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 0.4%, win rate 44%, lagged the market by 6.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

34 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.54%, win rate 59.4%, beating the market by +2.57 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

62 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.94%, win rate 50.8%, beating the market by -0.35 pts on average.

What does 啟碁 do? Company profile

通信網路業 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

6285 對應證券為啓碁科技股份有限公司，英文名稱 WNC Corporation，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業類別為通信網路業。公司成立於 1996/12/07，上市日期為 2003/09/22，總部位於新竹科學園區園區二路20號。董事長為謝宏波，總經理為高健榮，發言人為財務長宋芬瓊。官方公司基本資料列示實收資本額為新台幣4,841,552,990元；第三方股務資料曾列示已發行普通股約483,663,719股、特別股0股。2025年年報列示截至2026/02/28合計員工14,529人，2025年度合計員工15,324人。主要股東（2026/03/30）包括緯創資通股份有限公司96,089,042股、持股19.87%，寶來台灣高股息基金專戶4.85%，新制勞工退休基金2.36%，元大臺灣價值高息ETF專戶2.19%，范艾克太空創新者UCITS指數股票型基金投資專戶1.69%，謝宏波1.57%，中華郵政1.41%，廷發投資1.33%，王永順1.33%，均發有限公司1.27%。2025年合併營收為新台幣110,250,764千元，營業毛利約137.62億元，稅後淨利約30.63億元，EPS 6.41元。

Business

啓碁定位為通訊產品設計、研發、製造與系統整合廠，商業模式以技術導向 ODM/JDM、代工製造、客製化設計與一站式量產服務為主，客戶涵蓋大型服務營運商、通路商、品牌商、電信商、車廠與企業網路/資料中心設備客戶。2025年度營收結構為無線通訊產品106,780,636千元、占96.85%，其他3,470,128千元、占3.15%。主要產品與服務包括衛星通訊系列產品（衛星直播電視接收天線系統、衛星通訊傳輸器、低軌道衛星寬頻終端設備等）、移動與家用通訊產品（5G O-RAN設備、FWA/CPE、毫米波家用閘道器、光纖通訊、DOCSIS閘道器、Mesh路由器、Wi-Fi路由器、智慧家庭設備與安防攝影機）、車載通訊產品（車用Cellular/Wi-Fi/BT/CPU模組、V2X、車用攝影機、77/79GHz雷達、車用天線、車隊管理裝置）、企業及物聯網產品（企業交換器、資料中心400G/800G交換器、光收發器、企業Wi-Fi、SD-WAN、智慧電錶通訊模組、RFID與資產追蹤）、以及AIoT、邊緣運算與軟體平台。2025年主要銷售地區為美洲70.72%、亞洲16.81%、歐洲12.47%。年報揭露主要客戶以代號A公司呈現，2025年A公司銷貨15,162,586千元、占全年銷貨淨額13.75%；2024年A公司占20.70%。公司自述競爭利基包括天線與RF設計、軟體工程、微波與數位無線通訊、多媒體整合、一站式產品構思/設計/驗證/生產/物流能力、品質管理體系、全球產能與成本管控能力。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望重點在低軌衛星、5G/FWA、Wi-Fi 7/8、企業網路、AI資料中心高速交換器、光學交換器OCS、車用電子與AIoT。官方年報指出，2026年將以AI資料中心、低軌衛星、Wi-Fi 7/8、5G、後量子加密、智慧家庭、企業網路與工業物聯網為成長方向，並擴大越南廠、墨西哥廠與台灣產能彈性。2025年已開發成功產品包含家用Wi-Fi 8路由器、寬頻路由器AI引擎、Wi-Fi感測、數位座艙平台、超寬頻車隊管理數位鑰匙、高精度GNSS天線、Wi-Fi 8企業無線基地台、光學交換器、AI智慧網路攝影機、AI物聯網閘道器與Wi-Fi HaLow閘道器；計畫開發產品包括非同步衛星寬頻傳輸設備、5G高功率射頻/天線單元、O-RAN L2/L3與網路切片、低軌道衛星使用者終端天線、4D車用雷達天線、AI資料中心高速網路交換器、AI邊緣運算模組與後量子加密模組。產業面，年報引用市場資料指出全球FWA連接數預估由2025年底約1.85億成長至2031年底約3.5億；Wi-Fi 7室內AP收入占比預期至2028年超過九成；車用電子市場2024至2029年CAGR約8.5%。媒體與法人報導另指出，啓碁2026年第1季營收291.56億元、創同期新高，低軌衛星、車用與電信寬頻持續成長，800G交換器預計2026年第3季開始出貨、2026年營收貢獻比重上看5%，OCS光學交換器可能於2027年開始貢獻營收；董事長曾表示2026年營收可望二位數成長，三年後全年營收挑戰50億美元。主要風險包括美國關稅與保護主義、地緣政治、匯率波動、記憶體與原物料供應緊張/漲價、運費與人工成本上升、客戶集中、產品認證與量產時程、技術世代轉換、以及網通ODM競爭加劇。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 未具名B公司 年報揭露2024年主要供應商B公司占進貨11.01%，2025年占4.32%，但公司未揭露實名；關係為積體電路、儲存器、液晶顯示、濾波器、晶片組、模組、連接線/連接器、機構件、碟形天線、PCB等原料供應商之一。
  • 積體電路與晶片組供應商 年報列示主要原料包含積體電路、晶片組與模組；未揭露供應商實名，每種原物料至少與兩家以上主要供應商往來。
  • 儲存器供應商 年報列示主要原料包含儲存器；2025年公司亦提及記憶體供應緊張與漲價為營運挑戰，未揭露直接供應商名稱。
  • 印刷電路板供應商 年報列示主要原料包含印刷電路板；低軌衛星與網通設備均需要PCB/載板等零組件，但啓碁未公開具名直接供應商。
  • 連接線、連接器與機構件供應商 年報列示主要原料包含連結線/連結器與機構原件；未揭露直接供應商名稱。
  • 華通電腦股份有限公司 2313 台股上市PCB廠，常被媒體列入低軌衛星供應鏈；未能由啓碁官方資料確認其為啓碁直接供應商，故僅列為產業鏈可能上游/同案供應鏈觀察。
  • 昇達科技股份有限公司 3491 台股上櫃射頻/微波元件廠，媒體常列入低軌衛星供應鏈；未能由啓碁官方資料確認其為啓碁直接供應商，故僅列為產業鏈可能上游/同案供應鏈觀察。
Downstream
  • 未具名A公司 年報揭露主要銷貨客戶A公司，2025年銷貨15,162,586千元、占全年銷貨淨額13.75%；2024年占20.70%，公司未揭露實名。
  • 大型服務營運商、通路商及品牌商 公司短期行銷策略明確鎖定各銷售區域大型服務營運商、通路商及品牌商，關係為ODM/JDM客戶與通路合作對象。
  • 電信營運商與寬頻服務商 網路接取、FWA、CPE、光纖接取、小型基地台、O-RAN與企業專網產品的下游客戶；多為海外營運商，官方未逐一具名。
  • SpaceX / Starlink 美國未上市/非台股公司；經濟日報與券商文章稱啓碁為Starlink低軌衛星用戶端產品主要供應商，涵蓋終端設備/相位陣列天線/路由器等，但啓碁官方年報以客戶代號揭露，未直接具名。
  • 美系交換器領導廠商 媒體報導啓碁取得企業用800G高階交換器訂單，預計2026年第3季開始出貨；客戶未具名。
  • 美系光通訊領導廠商 媒體報導啓碁OCS光學交換器打入美系光通訊領導廠商供應鏈，預計2027年開始貢獻營收；客戶未具名。
  • 國際車廠與車用Tier 1/Tier 2供應鏈 車用通訊模組、衛星廣播、V2X、雷達、車用攝影機與ADAS相關產品下游客戶；年報稱啓碁為國際車廠認可之Tier 2供應商，未逐一具名。

Competitors

Sources（9）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.