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2408

南亞科 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 南亞科 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 22Quality 99Growth 99Momentum 97Chips 79

Is 南亞科 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~99% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 14.3%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 69th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 98th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.5% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 730.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.63
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 港商麥格理 holds 37,239 lots
  • sellers have 22,866 lots left, ~823 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +59% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 港商麥格理 has accumulated 37,239 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 國泰-敦南 peaked at 14,097 lots, has sold 73%, 3,786 left, ~17 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -4.12pp, mid holders +8, retail +4.28pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -56,298 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
港商麥格理富邦-新店永豐金-匯立美林永豐金-中正元大-松江
Distributing
國泰-敦南永豐金證券元大證券花旗環球新光港商野村
Desks
own scale
凱基摩根大通華南永昌統一
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 港商麥格理 +37,239
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-新店 +19,929
    sold 6%
  • 永豐金-匯立 +16,586
    sold 4%
  • 美林 +9,104
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 永豐金-中正 +3,927
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-松江 +3,893
    sold 24%· still adding

Distributing

  • 國泰-敦南 3,786 left
    sold 73%· ~17 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金證券 2,993 left
    sold 72%· paused recently
  • 元大證券 3,850 left
    sold 63%· paused recently
  • 花旗環球 5,914 left
    sold 25%· ~30 sessions to clear
  • 新光 2,081 left
    sold 62%· ~42 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 3,323 left
    sold 33%· paused recently

Desks

  • 凱基 -42,634
    unclassified
  • 摩根大通 -26,400
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 華南永昌 -14,825
    unclassified
  • 統一 -10,468
    unclassified
Still selling 22,866 lots ~823 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +10,235 absorbed / -12,160 sold sellers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -46,083 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

24 historical occurrences (since 2009-12-25)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 24, Median +0.51%, Excess +4.24%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 65.2%, Sample 23, Median +6.68%, Excess +6.27%, Beat mkt rate 47.8%；120-day: Win 36.4%, Sample 22, Median -5.36%, Excess +3.19%, Beat mkt rate 31.8%

120 days after: historical avg +11.73%

20-day +6.08%
60-day +11.28%
120-day +11.73%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
65.2%
36.4%
Sample
24
23
22
Median
+0.51%
+6.68%
-5.36%
Excess
+4.24%
+6.27%
+3.19%
Beat mkt rate
50%
47.8%
31.8%

Over 22 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 11.73%, beat the market by 3.19 pts; win rate 36.4%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 730.13%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

102 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 49.4%, Sample 81, Median 0%, Excess +1.5%, Beat mkt rate 45.7%；60-day: Win 45.6%, Sample 79, Median -3.65%, Excess +5.65%, Beat mkt rate 40.5%；120-day: Win 47.4%, Sample 76, Median -3.25%, Excess +11.55%, Beat mkt rate 44.7%

120 days after: historical avg +21.08%

20-day +3.46%
60-day +11.22%
120-day +21.08%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
49.4%
45.6%
47.4%
Sample
81
79
76
Median
0%
-3.65%
-3.25%
Excess
+1.5%
+5.65%
+11.55%
Beat mkt rate
45.7%
40.5%
44.7%

Over 76 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 21.08%, beat the market by 11.55 pts; win rate 47.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 141+57.5% +53.1% 100% +36.9%
20-40 311+91.4% +16.9% 71.7% +49.6%
40-60 298+14.4% -17.3% 37.6% +1.7%
60-80 169-17.7% -17.9% 0% -11.9%
80-100 You are here449+5.9% +2.4% 52.8% -22.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 39.12, at the 97.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+34.9%
Win rate 99.2% Excess +26.1%
118d
+25.4%
Win rate 73.8% Excess +13.8%
344d
Now
+38.3%
Win rate 33.8% Excess +8.6%
379d
60-day momentum down
+9.8%
Win rate 74.7% Excess +5.5%
198d
+5.5%
Win rate 42.4% Excess +5.6%
172d
+19.1%
Win rate 63.5% Excess +2.9%
277d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 379 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 38.3%, win rate 33.8%, beat the market by 8.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

55 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.1%, win rate 51.9%, beating the market by +5.31 pts on average.

What does 南亞科 do? Company profile

半導體業／DRAM記憶體 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

南亞科技股份有限公司成立於1995年3月，總部位於新北市泰山區南林路98號，為台塑企業旗下DRAM記憶體公司。董事長為鄒明仁，總經理為李培瑛。公司於2000年8月在台灣證券交易所掛牌上市，股票代號2408。公司官方揭露截至2026年4月實收資本額約新台幣345億元，員工人數逾3,700人。主要業務為DRAM之研發、設計、製造與銷售。2025年年報揭露之主要股東包括南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司持股29.28%、台灣化學纖維股份有限公司8.81%、台塑石化股份有限公司8.81%、台灣塑膠工業股份有限公司8.80%、新制勞工退休基金1.11%、陳族元1.01%、匯豐受託保管HACF有限合夥投資專戶0.95%、麥寮汽電0.79%、匯豐託管三菱UFJ摩根士丹利證券交易戶0.77%、中國信託受託保管元大台灣卓越50基金專戶0.69%。2026年4月完成由四大客戶參與之私募普通股認購，總金額新台幣787.2億元，增資後私募持股約10.19%，資金用途為先進記憶體製造廠務與生產設備。

Business

南亞科為DRAM晶片製造商，產品涵蓋標準型DRAM如DDR5、DDR4、DDR3，低功率行動DRAM如LPDDR5/5X、LPDDR4/4X，KGD良裸晶，多晶片封裝MCP，以及模組DRAM如SODIMM、UDIMM、CUDIMM、RDIMM、LPCAMM2，並有Elixir品牌產品。2025年營收應用結構依年報約為：消費型電子55%，涵蓋電視、網通、固態硬碟、數位攝影設備、機上盒及車工規等；低功率產品19%，涵蓋通訊模組、多晶片封裝、手持裝置、數位電視、數位相機、語音助理、智慧手錶並增加車載出貨；個人電腦系統21%，主要針對PC系統廠商DDR5需求；資料中心與伺服器5%，包括伺服器模組RDIMM、BMC及NIC等應用。公司2025年合併營收新台幣665.9億元，年增約95.1%，稅後淨利66.1億元，每股盈餘2.13元。商業模式以自有製程與晶圓製造能力生產DRAM，銷售予OEM、模組、儲存、網通、消費電子、車用與資料中心供應鏈客戶；公司揭露2025年度僅2個客戶銷貨占比超過10%，但未公開客戶名稱。2026年第一季公司揭露DDR5營收約占10%，仍供應DDR4及LPDDR4以補市場缺口，客製化AI UWIO記憶體已開始貢獻初期營收。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年起DRAM市場由AI伺服器、HBM、高容量DDR5及邊緣AI應用帶動，主要記憶體大廠將產能由DDR4與LPDDR4轉向HBM、DDR5及LPDDR5，使傳統DRAM供給吃緊，南亞科受惠於DDR4、LPDDR4及DDR5報價上揚，於2025年第3季轉盈。2026年公司營運重點包括優化DDR4、LPDDR4、DDR5產品組合，擴大伺服器級記憶體模組出貨，完成客製化超高頻寬AI記憶體驗證，推廣1B製程16Gb DDR5至PC、SSD、網通及伺服器模組應用，並維持低功率與車載市場銷售。公司預計2026年資本支出上限約新台幣520億元，其中生產設備約占三成，重點投入5A新廠、廠務、無塵室、研發及一般性資本支出。年報指出5A新廠預期2027年初導入製程設備；公司新聞稿亦指出新廠設備安裝規劃於2027年第一季開始。中長期至2028年前，成長動能來自1B量產提升、1C/1D/1E製程微縮、高容量高速DDR5/LPDDR5、伺服器RDIMM、客製化AI UWIO或超高頻寬記憶體、新廠產能開出，以及SanDisk、Kioxia、Solidigm、Cisco等客戶私募入股後的供應合作。主要風險包括DRAM景氣循環與價格反轉、AI需求不如預期、三星/SK hynix/美光重新調配產能、中國長鑫存儲CXMT擴產與補貼競爭、先進製程及EUV開發難度與資本支出壓力、美元匯率波動、地緣政治與美國關稅政策、原料或設備供應鏈中斷、資安風險，以及客戶重複下單造成庫存調整。2027至2028年新廠量產時點、產能規模與產品組合屬公司計畫及外部報導推估，需持續追蹤實際裝機、良率及客戶拉貨。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 環球晶圓股份有限公司 6488 半導體矽晶圓為DRAM製造主要原料；南亞科年報僅揭露主要原料包括矽晶片且供應商來自日本、美國及台灣，未揭露特定供應商，環球晶為台灣掛牌矽晶圓代表供應商，屬產業鏈上游參考。
  • 崇越科技股份有限公司 5434 半導體材料與設備通路商，屬晶圓製造上游材料供應鏈代表；南亞科未公開指定其為主要供應商，列為產業鏈關係企業參考。
  • 漢唐集成股份有限公司 2404 半導體廠務與無塵室工程供應鏈代表；南亞科2026年資本支出重點包括5A新廠廠務與無塵室，未公開指定承包商，列為上游廠務工程產業鏈參考。
  • 家登精密工業股份有限公司 3680 半導體先進製程載具與EUV相關供應鏈代表；南亞科揭露1C/1D及EUV能力開發按計畫進行，未公開指定供應商，列為產業鏈參考。
  • ASML Holding N.V. 荷蘭上市半導體微影設備商，為先進製程與EUV設備全球關鍵供應商；南亞科未揭露特定設備供應商，列為產業鏈上游代表。
  • Applied Materials, Inc. 美國上市半導體製程設備商，為DRAM晶圓製造設備供應鏈代表；南亞科未揭露特定供應商。
  • Lam Research Corporation 美國上市半導體蝕刻與沉積設備商，為DRAM製程設備供應鏈代表；南亞科未揭露特定供應商。
  • Tokyo Electron Limited 日本上市半導體製程設備商，為DRAM製造設備供應鏈代表；南亞科未揭露特定供應商。
  • 信越化學工業株式會社 日本上市矽晶圓與半導體材料供應商，屬DRAM上游原料代表；南亞科未揭露特定供應商。
  • SUMCO Corporation 日本上市矽晶圓供應商，屬DRAM上游原料代表；南亞科未揭露特定供應商。
Downstream
  • SanDisk Technologies, Inc. 非台股掛牌；南亞科2026年私募策略投資人之一，公開報導指出其為客戶，合作目的為穩定多元DRAM供應，主要與SSD及儲存應用相關。
  • Kioxia Corporation 日本公司，非台股掛牌；南亞科2026年私募策略投資人之一，公開報導指出其為客戶，主要與儲存供應鏈及DRAM供應合作相關。
  • Solidigm SK hynix旗下SSD公司，非台股掛牌；南亞科2026年私募策略投資人之一，公開報導指出其為客戶，主要與企業SSD及AI資料中心儲存應用相關。
  • Cisco Systems, Inc. 美國上市網通設備公司，非台股掛牌；南亞科2026年私募策略投資人之一，公開報導指出其為客戶，主要與網通及資料中心設備DRAM需求相關。
  • 威剛科技股份有限公司 3260 台股上櫃記憶體模組與儲存品牌廠，屬DRAM下游模組產業鏈；未確認為南亞科公開揭露主要客戶。
  • 創見資訊股份有限公司 2451 台股上市記憶體模組與儲存品牌廠，屬DRAM下游模組產業鏈；未確認為南亞科公開揭露主要客戶。
  • 十銓科技股份有限公司 4967 台股上櫃記憶體模組品牌廠，屬DRAM下游模組產業鏈；未確認為南亞科公開揭露主要客戶。
  • 宇瞻科技股份有限公司 8271 台股上櫃工控與消費記憶體模組廠，屬DRAM下游模組產業鏈；未確認為南亞科公開揭露主要客戶。
  • 群聯電子股份有限公司 8299 台股上櫃NAND控制晶片與儲存方案公司，SSD產品需搭配DRAM快取，屬儲存下游應用鏈；未確認為南亞科公開揭露主要客戶。

Competitors

  • Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. 韓國上市公司，全球DRAM三大廠之一，為南亞科在DDR5、伺服器DRAM、行動DRAM及消費型DRAM市場的主要競爭者。
  • SK hynix Inc. 韓國上市公司，全球DRAM三大廠之一，HBM與伺服器DRAM具領先地位；其旗下Solidigm同時為南亞科私募客戶之一，具競合關係。
  • Micron Technology, Inc. 美國上市公司，全球DRAM三大廠之一，為DDR、LPDDR、HBM及伺服器記憶體主要競爭者；南亞科歷史上曾與美光有技術移轉與授權合約。
  • 長鑫存儲技術有限公司 中國未上市DRAM廠，南亞科年報列為新興風險，因DDR4與DDR5產品重疊及產能擴張，可能影響中國市場銷售與價格。
  • 華邦電子股份有限公司 2344 台股上市記憶體IC公司，產品包含利基型DRAM、NOR Flash與SLC NAND；在利基型記憶體與部分DDR產品市場與南亞科有競爭。
  • 力晶積成電子製造股份有限公司 6770 台股上市晶圓代工與記憶體相關製造公司，並非全球標準型DRAM三大廠，但在台灣記憶體與晶圓製造供應鏈中具一定替代與競爭關係。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.