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2515

中工 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 中工 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 65Quality 42Growth 86Momentum 42Chips 20

Is 中工 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 45th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.1%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 58th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 47th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -2.5% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 57.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.82
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 兆豐證券 holds 77,660 lots
  • sellers have 4,113 lots left, ~152 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -1% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 兆豐證券 has accumulated 77,660 lots since the start (sold 1%), holding.
  • Main distributor 新光 peaked at 3,492 lots, has sold 60%, 1,386 left, ~24 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.80pp, mid holders +12, retail -2.77pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -50,350 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
兆豐證券富邦-台北統一-仁愛國泰證券石橋證券花旗環球
Distributing
新光福邦證券第一金-桃園中國信託-三重永豐金-松山永豐金-板新
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利凱基-台北國泰-館前統一
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 兆豐證券 +77,660
    sold 1%
  • 富邦-台北 +24,847
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 統一-仁愛 +19,255
    sold 0%
  • 國泰證券 +10,072
    sold 12%
  • 石橋證券 +3,669
    sold 0%
  • 花旗環球 +2,670
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 新光 1,386 left
    sold 60%· ~24 sessions to clear
  • 福邦證券 1,541 left
    sold 55%· ~8 sessions to clear
  • 第一金-桃園 1,000 left
    sold 50%· paused recently
  • 中國信託-三重 594 left
    sold 56%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-松山 158 left
    sold 87%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-板新 384 left
    sold 67%· paused recently

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -23,018
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-台北 -19,544
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 國泰-館前 -15,311
    unclassified
  • 統一 -14,337
    unclassified
Still selling 4,113 lots ~153 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +12,635 absorbed / -3,539 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -26,292 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 57.09%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

76 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 56.1%, Sample 66, Median +0.88%, Excess -1.02%, Beat mkt rate 37.9%；60-day: Win 53.1%, Sample 64, Median +1.18%, Excess -1.1%, Beat mkt rate 40.6%；120-day: Win 60.3%, Sample 63, Median +2.08%, Excess -0.28%, Beat mkt rate 50.8%

120 days after: historical avg +6.04%

20-day +1.14%
60-day +3.34%
120-day +6.04%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56.1%
53.1%
60.3%
Sample
66
64
63
Median
+0.88%
+1.18%
+2.08%
Excess
-1.02%
-1.1%
-0.28%
Beat mkt rate
37.9%
40.6%
50.8%

Over 63 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.04%, lagged the market by 0.28 pts; win rate 60.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 610+15.8% +13.9% 65.6% -2.6%
20-40 639+14.5% +7.1% 70.9% -6.3%
40-60 You are here715+6.1% +0.6% 51.9% -9.8%
60-80 602+0.6% -4.8% 35.9% -12.7%
80-100 172+15.7% +16.3% 84.9% -16.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 27.71, at the 46.7th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+5.9%
Win rate 58.3% Excess -1.7%
424d
+8.9%
Win rate 65.7% Excess -0.9%
752d
-6.4%
Win rate 25.1% Excess -15.5%
323d
60-day momentum down
+7.7%
Win rate 70.7% Excess -4.5%
581d
Now
+6.1%
Win rate 64.6% Excess 0%
528d
0%
Win rate 50% Excess -10.3%
250d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 528 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6.1%, win rate 64.6%, lagged the market by 0%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

23 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.05%, win rate 39.1%, beating the market by -7.71 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

66 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.02%, win rate 48.5%, beating the market by -0.59 pts on average.

What does 中工 do? Company profile

建材營造 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2515 對應中華工程股份有限公司，股票簡稱中工，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1950/09/01，1993/03/02 掛牌上市，總部位於台北市松山區東興路12號6樓。公開資料顯示實收資本額為新台幣16,079,040,840元，已發行普通股1,607,904,084股。2026年5月21日股東會與董事會改選後，公開新聞與資料顯示新任董事長為鄭斯聰、總經理為馮敦承；公司發言人為程安慈、代理發言人為蘇育民，股務代理為統一綜合證券。公司歷史上曾為經濟部所屬國營事業，後民營化並長期屬威京集團體系；2025至2026年間寶佳集團透過堡新投資、大華建設等關係人加碼並取得董事會主導地位，形成寶佳與威京共治或寶佳主導的新治理格局。員工規模公開資料不一致，EMIS列2023年約951人，LinkedIn頁面列約840人，未查得截至2026-06-17公司官方最新精確員工數。主要股東方面，公開新聞指出寶佳系持股曾達16.6%以上並取得4席董事；威京體系及中石化仍為重要關係股東，其中中石化曾被報導持有中工約一成股權，中工亦持有中石化約4.84%，但最新股東名冊細項仍應以公開資訊觀測站與公司股東會資料為準。

Business

中工主業為國內外土木工程、建築工程、代辦工業區開發與社區工程，並延伸至房地產開發、都市更新、捷運聯合開發、工業區土地銷售與租售。MoneyDJ彙整公司年報與法說資料指出，2024年營收比重約為土木工程63%、建築工程18%、機電工程7%、開發工程5%，其餘為營建用地銷售收入及轉投資公司器材租賃、人力派遣、保全等。土木工程包含道路、橋梁、隧道、水壩、機場、港灣、鐵路、捷運及環保工程；建築工程包含住宅、商業大樓、科技廠房、醫院與休閒娛樂設施；機電工程包含給排水、電氣、照明、空調、電梯、消防安全設備等；開發業務包含工業區開發、都市更新與聯合開發。商業模式分為承攬公共工程及民間大型建築工程，按工程進度認列收入；自有或合建房地產案則於完工交屋或處分時認列收入與處分利益；工業區開發則透過土地出售、出租及開發工程取得收入。主要客戶與終端應用包括政府公共建設單位、交通建設、捷運與大型都更案業主、台塑總部都更工程、台北雙星C1D1開發案、房地產購屋客戶、工業區土地買方與承租企業。主要在建或規劃案包含台北雙星C1D1工程、台塑大樓總部都更工程、中工碧硯閣、中工雲宇宙AI園區、中工鳴森苑、南港雋詠案、板福案及彰濱工業區開發等。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年營運受部分工程收尾、承攬工程量減少及新建案完工入帳遞延影響，前11月累計營收約176.76億元、年減約15%；2025年前三季合併營收約146.76億元、稅後淨利約4.18億元、EPS約0.27元。2026至2028年主要成長動能來自工程在手案、都更與房地產開發案進入完工交屋期，以及工業區土地開發銷售。公開法說與新聞指出，2025年底在手工程合約總額約1,768億元，尚待執行約1,032億元，主要包括台塑大樓總部都更工程、台北雙星C1D1工程等；2026年第一季中工碧硯閣預計交屋入帳，中工雲宇宙AI園區預計2026年6月取得使用執照並於下半年銷售移轉，市場預期2026與2027年有完工交屋潮。工業區方面，可出售土地面積約57.9公頃，已出租或出售約37.9公頃，彰濱工業區為主力；進行中工業區開發工程總額約44.45億元，待投入金額約36.2億元。中長期看點包括寶佳團隊進入後可能強化房地產開發、資產活化、工程管理與去化效率；AI與高科技產業擴張可能帶動廠辦、工業土地及智慧建築需求。主要風險包含營建缺工缺料、鋼筋水泥砂石混凝土等原物料價格波動、碳費與淨零轉型成本、工程追加減帳與工期延誤、都更審議進度與房市景氣循環、利率與融資成本、未來兩年投入工程及都更案帶來55至100億元籌資需求、股權與治理變動後的整合風險，以及大型工程或訴訟爭議可能影響認列時程與獲利。2027至2028年的具體財務數字尚未見公司明確公開指引，本段屬依在手工程、開發案時程與公開法說資料所作的情境整理。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 中鋼 2002 鋼筋與鋼材為中工主要原料之一；中鋼為台股上市鋼鐵上游代表，未查得截至本研究日中工與中鋼的特定採購合約。
  • 台泥 1101 水泥為中工主要原料之一；台泥為台股上市水泥供應商代表，列為產業上游關係企業，未確認直接供應。
  • 亞泥 1102 水泥為營建工程重要投入；亞泥為台股上市水泥供應商代表，未確認直接供應。
  • 國產 2504 預拌混凝土、砂石與混凝土為營建主要投入；國產為台股上市預拌混凝土與建材供應商代表，未確認直接供應。
  • 幸福水泥 1108 水泥為上游原料；幸福水泥為台股上市水泥供應商代表，未確認直接供應。
Downstream
  • 交通部公路局 政府機關，非上市櫃公司；中工2025年得標台61線新竹段平交路口改善工程，屬公共工程下游客戶。
  • 台塑 1301 公開資料指出中工主要在手工程包括台塑大樓總部都更工程；台塑為台股上市公司，屬大型民間建築工程業主或關係案源。
  • 台北雙星開發股份有限公司 非台股上市櫃公司；中工在手工程包含台北雙星C1D1開發案工程，屬大型都更與交通樞紐開發下游客戶或案源。
  • 工業區土地買方與承租企業 多為未具名企業或非單一上市櫃公司；中工透過彰濱等工業區土地出售、出租及開發工程取得收入。
  • 住宅與商辦購屋客戶 包含自然人及法人買方，非單一上市櫃公司；中工碧硯閣、中工雲宇宙AI園區、陶朱隱園等完工銷售或移轉為房地產開發下游。

Competitors

  • 工信 5521 台股上市營造工程公司，MoneyDJ列為中工國內主要競爭者之一。
  • 欣陸 3703 台股上市營建工程與建材集團，旗下大陸工程等與公共工程、民間工程競爭。
  • 建國 5515 台股上市營造公司，MoneyDJ列為國內主要競爭者之一。
  • 隆大 5519 台股上市營建公司，與住宅開發及營造工程市場競爭。
  • 新建 2516 台股上市營造工程公司，與公共工程及建築工程承攬競爭。
  • 達欣工 2535 台股上市營造公司，承攬建築與公共工程，為同業競爭者。
  • 德昌 5511 台股上櫃營造工程公司，MoneyDJ列為國內主要競爭者之一。
  • 潤弘 2597 台股上市營造與工程公司，具預鑄與整合工程能力，與建築工程市場競爭。
  • 雙喜 5516 台股上櫃營造公司，MoneyDJ列為國內主要競爭者之一。
  • 三洋實業 1472 台股上市公司，具營建工程相關業務，MoneyDJ列為中工國內主要競爭者之一。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.