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2520

冠德 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 冠德 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 79Quality 59Growth 84Momentum 39Chips 66

Is 冠德 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 71th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.5%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 26th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 83th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.6% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 52.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.92
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 永豐金-敦南 holds 8,378 lots
  • sellers have 956 lots left, ~27 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +11% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 永豐金-敦南 has accumulated 8,378 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 法銀巴黎 peaked at 1,020 lots, has sold 64%, 366 left, ~6 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.82pp, mid holders -13, retail -2.12pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -5,107 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
永豐金-敦南永豐金-匯立兆豐-大同元富-城中台灣摩根士丹利台新-城中
Distributing
法銀巴黎台新-板橋永豐金證券群益金鼎港商野村康和
Desks
own scale
富邦-樹林摩根大通美商高盛元大證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 永豐金-敦南 +8,378
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-匯立 +7,441
    sold 0%
  • 兆豐-大同 +7,002
    sold 8%
  • 元富-城中 +3,543
    sold 0%
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +3,029
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新-城中 +2,022
    sold 10%

Distributing

  • 法銀巴黎 366 left
    sold 64%· ~6 sessions to clear
  • 台新-板橋 337 left
    sold 27%· ~27 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金證券 270 left
    sold 27%· paused recently
  • 群益金鼎 172 left
    sold 39%· ~24 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 131 left
    sold 30%· paused recently
  • 康和 82 left
    sold 49%· paused recently

Desks

  • 富邦-樹林 -4,206
    unclassified
  • 摩根大通 -3,051
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美商高盛 -2,066
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 元大證券 -1,828
    unclassified
Still selling 956 lots ~27 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +8,741 absorbed / -924 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -4,493 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 52.32%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

120 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 104, Median 0%, Excess +0.7%, Beat mkt rate 48.1%；60-day: Win 52.4%, Sample 103, Median +1.92%, Excess +1.76%, Beat mkt rate 47.6%；120-day: Win 53.9%, Sample 102, Median +2.47%, Excess +3.84%, Beat mkt rate 47.1%

120 days after: historical avg +9.13%

20-day +1.51%
60-day +4.87%
120-day +9.13%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
52.4%
53.9%
Sample
104
103
102
Median
0%
+1.92%
+2.47%
Excess
+0.7%
+1.76%
+3.84%
Beat mkt rate
48.1%
47.6%
47.1%

Over 102 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.13%, beat the market by 3.84 pts; win rate 53.9%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 1046-7.8% -15% 27.7% -19.5%
20-40 321+28.4% +28.4% 89.4% +2%
40-60 453+40.4% +27.9% 94.7% +7.2%
60-80 346+19.2% +20.6% 72.5% +2.6%
80-100 You are here696+16% +19.8% 66.8% +3.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 15.0, at the 83.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-5.9%
Win rate 40.1% Excess -11.7%
504d
+18.6%
Win rate 71.7% Excess +2.2%
492d
Now
+11.8%
Win rate 64.9% Excess +5.6%
704d
60-day momentum down
-1.7%
Win rate 43.8% Excess -7.8%
818d
+25.7%
Win rate 79.8% Excess +6.1%
203d
+5.6%
Win rate 50.6% Excess -2.3%
261d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 704 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 11.8%, win rate 64.9%, beat the market by 5.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

28 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.08%, win rate 53.6%, beating the market by +1.8 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

62 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.77%, win rate 56.7%, beating the market by +0.09 pts on average.

What does 冠德 do? Company profile

建材營造業 臺灣證券交易所上市

Overview

冠德建設股份有限公司為台灣上市營建開發公司，成立於1979年11月23日，公開發行日為1990年11月29日，上市掛牌日為1993年10月27日，總部位於台北市松山區民權東路三段169號10樓。董事長為馬志綱，總經理為張勝安，發言人亦為張勝安。依公開市場資料，實收資本額約新台幣60.95億元，已發行普通股約609,487,110股，無特別股。公司主要業務為委託營造廠商興建國民住宅及商業大樓出租出售、建築家具買賣與進出口、接受委託辦理都市更新、土地重劃及房屋買賣資訊等。重要子公司包括環球購物中心股份有限公司與根基營造股份有限公司。2025年度董事會通過合併財報顯示，全年營業收入約新台幣228.73億元、營業毛利約51.36億元、營業利益約31.07億元、歸屬母公司業主淨利約15.56億元、EPS 2.61元、期末總資產約648.42億元、總負債約352.97億元。2026年股東會通過2025年度每股現金股利1.6元。主要股東方面，可查資料顯示宇德投資、劉美朱與馬志綱等為重要持股或董監經理人持股相關人；公開新聞曾指出宇德投資為冠德主要股東之一，惟截至本次研究未能取得完整最新前十大股東名冊與各別持股比例。員工規模未能在本次可查來源中取得公司本體或合併口徑的最新確切人數。

Business

冠德的商業模式以不動產開發、營造工程與商場零售營運三大事業為核心。建設本業包含住宅、商辦、都市更新、捷運聯開及複合式開發，收入多隨建案完工交屋或出售時點認列，營收與獲利具專案集中與年度波動特性。營造工程主要透過子公司根基營造承攬企業總部、民間廠房、醫療大樓、住宅大樓、道路橋梁與土木工程，亦承接集團內建案及外部工程。百貨與商場營運主要透過環球購物中心，提供商場出租、百貨零售、餐飲、美食、影城、親子娛樂與停車服務等較具經常性的租金及營運收入。依2026年股東會相關報導，2025年合併營收結構約為根基營造營造業務75%、建設業務17%、環球購物中心百貨業務8%；2023年歷史資料則顯示營造約58%、建設約33%、百貨約9%，顯示各年度會隨建案交屋與工程進度變動。主要終端應用包含自住與換屋住宅需求、企業商辦與廠辦需求、都市更新與捷運共構開發、公共工程及商場零售消費。公司近年策略從住宅開發延伸至商辦、商場、TOD大眾運輸導向開發、捷運聯開與複合式經營，並提高環球購物中心持股，以強化集團資源整合與長期經常性收益。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年冠德營運受2024年高基期、房市買氣轉弱與建案交屋節奏影響，全年營收約228.73億元、年減約20%，EPS 2.61元，低於2024年高峰。2026年成長動能主要來自四大推案與既有工程進度，包括新北中和商辦冠德K Tower Y09或秀朗橋案、台中崇德裕毛屋案、台中G5案、台北萬華直興段案，公開報導揭露合計推案量約141.5億至150億元；公司管理層指出買盤以自住及換屋剛性需求支撐，並看好科技與AI產業帶動商辦、廠辦需求。中長期至2027至2028年，冠德表示儲備案量達千億元、涵蓋住宅與辦公，可支撐未來7至9年開發動能，策略方向包括精華地段土地開發、跨出大台北、商用不動產、TOD、商場及可能飯店營運，並以複合式開發與永續經營提高土地價值。潛在風險包括央行信用管制與房市政策變動、預售與成屋交易量疲弱、利率與資金成本、營建成本與缺工、土地取得困難、建案銷售速度拉長、交屋認列時點不穩定、商場零售景氣循環，以及根基營造大型工程毛利率與履約風險。2027至2028年之具體營收或EPS數字未見公司公開明確指引，本研究不作數字預估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 根基營造股份有限公司 2546 冠德重要子公司，承作營造工程，對冠德建設案與外部工程提供施工與工程管理能力；屬台股掛牌公司。
  • 台灣水泥股份有限公司 1101 營建業上游水泥與預拌混凝土供應代表公司；本次未確認其為冠德直接供應商，列為產業鏈上游關聯。
  • 亞洲水泥股份有限公司 1102 營建業上游水泥供應代表公司；本次未確認其為冠德直接供應商，列為產業鏈上游關聯。
  • 中國鋼鐵股份有限公司 2002 營建鋼材上游代表公司；本次未確認其為冠德直接供應商，列為產業鏈上游關聯。
  • 土地所有權人、都更地主與公部門開發單位 冠德取得開發案、合建分屋、都市更新與捷運聯開案的重要上游資源來源，多為個人、法人或政府機關，非單一台股掛牌公司。
Downstream
  • 自住與換屋購屋族群 住宅建案主要終端客戶；公司表示房市買盤以具明確需求的自住與換屋族群支撐。
  • 企業商辦與廠辦使用者 商辦、微型辦公、廠辦及企業總部需求端；受科技與AI產業發展、企業擴張與資產配置影響，客戶可能為上市櫃、未上市或外商企業。
  • 環球購物中心承租戶與消費者 百貨商場下游客群，包括零售品牌、餐飲、影城、親子娛樂、停車與一般消費者；環球購物中心為冠德重要子公司。
  • 公共工程與民間工程業主 透過根基營造承攬住宅大樓、企業總部、廠房、醫療大樓、道路橋梁等工程之下游客戶，可能包含政府機關、法人與民間業主。

Competitors

Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.