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5213

亞昕 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 亞昕 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 81Quality 43Growth 96Momentum 24Chips 6

Is 亞昕 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 67th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.6%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 32th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 62th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -7.5% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 211.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.22
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 元大-天母 holds 2,320 lots
  • sellers have 314 lots left, ~15 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -7% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-天母 has accumulated 2,320 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 港商野村 peaked at 307 lots, has sold 49%, 157 left, ~10 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.25pp, mid holders -1, retail +0.22pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,247 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-天母華南永昌-林口永豐金-南京中國信託-忠孝新加坡商瑞銀元大-羅東
Distributing
港商野村凱基-站前凱基-科園國票-內壢元大-楊梅元大-北港
Desks
own scale
國泰-館前台新-信義凱基-林口富邦-板橋
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-天母 +2,320
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 華南永昌-林口 +2,253
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 永豐金-南京 +889
    sold 10%
  • 中國信託-忠孝 +820
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +619
    sold 17%
  • 元大-羅東 +511
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 港商野村 157 left
    sold 49%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-站前 107 left
    sold 40%· paused recently
  • 凱基-科園 35 left
    sold 67%· ~5 sessions to clear
  • 國票-內壢 75 left
    sold 25%· paused recently
  • 元大-楊梅 21 left
    sold 75%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 元大-北港 33 left
    sold 61%· paused recently

Desks

  • 國泰-館前 -3,251
    unclassified
  • 台新-信義 -1,436
    unclassified
  • 凱基-林口 -1,049
    unclassified
  • 富邦-板橋 -919
    unclassified
Still selling 314 lots ~15 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,425 absorbed / -355 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -736 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 211.33%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

134 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 47.7%, Sample 130, Median 0%, Excess +0.54%, Beat mkt rate 50.8%；60-day: Win 56.2%, Sample 130, Median +1.92%, Excess +3.22%, Beat mkt rate 46.2%；120-day: Win 55.4%, Sample 130, Median +5.52%, Excess +7.36%, Beat mkt rate 43.8%

120 days after: historical avg +15.4%

20-day +1.45%
60-day +7.33%
120-day +15.4%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.7%
56.2%
55.4%
Sample
130
130
130
Median
0%
+1.92%
+5.52%
Excess
+0.54%
+3.22%
+7.36%
Beat mkt rate
50.8%
46.2%
43.8%

Over 130 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 15.4%, beat the market by 7.36 pts; win rate 55.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 522-7.8% -10.2% 22.4% -28.7%
20-40 128-13.7% -14.5% 5.5% -24.9%
40-60 393+10.2% +15.5% 69.7% -0.5%
60-80 You are here567-3.2% -4.9% 37.2% -15.6%
80-100 1140+30.2% +31.3% 78.3% +6.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 16.44, at the 62.1th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-11.9%
Win rate 18.2% Excess -17.5%
242d
-2.5%
Win rate 40.2% Excess -5.2%
373d
+13.8%
Win rate 79.7% Excess +2.6%
1007d
60-day momentum down
-1.3%
Win rate 43.9% Excess -11.2%
442d
Now
-1%
Win rate 45.9% Excess -13.8%
281d
+10.8%
Win rate 77.3% Excess +1.2%
525d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 281 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 1%, win rate 45.9%, lagged the market by 13.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

30 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.35%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +0.58 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

57 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.48%, win rate 53.6%, beating the market by -0.12 pts on average.

What does 亞昕 do? Company profile

建材營造／建設業／不動產開發 上櫃（櫃買中心）

Overview

5213 為亞昕國際開發股份有限公司普通股，櫃買中心掛牌上櫃公司。公司前身可追溯至 1988 年成立之通用半導體公司，2007 年更名為亞昕國際開發並轉型不動產開發；公開資料顯示公司於 2009 年上櫃。總部位於新北市林口區文化三路一段 555 巷 2 號 1 樓；登記資本額約新台幣 60 億元，實收資本額公開資訊觀測站/交易所資料需以最新公告為準。公開資料列示董事長為姚連地，總經理為姚政岳。員工規模方面，公開百科資料約列示 75 人，但未能在本次查核中取得最新年報逐項核對，故應視為參考值。公司主要經營區域集中於新北林口、桃園、新竹等北台灣重劃區與都會發展區，並以住宅、商辦、廠辦、旅館及商場開發為核心。主要股東與經營團隊關聯性高，公開資料顯示姚連地家族與相關投資公司/董監事持股對公司治理具重要影響；精確前十大股東比例應以公開資訊觀測站最新年報與股東會年報為準。

Business

亞昕為不動產開發商，商業模式以取得土地、合建或都更/重劃區開發，委託營造廠興建，再透過預售、成屋銷售、商用不動產出租或資產處分取得收入。主要產品與服務包括住宅大樓、商辦、廠辦、商場、飯店與土地/不動產開發管理。公開資料與公司法說摘要顯示，亞昕過去營收認列高度依賴建案完工交屋時點，單一年度營收會因交屋案量而大幅波動；2024 年受惠林口與竹北等大型建案交屋，營收大幅成長，2025 年公司對外說明全年交屋目標約 180 億元，主要來自亞昕昕銀座、亞昕森中央、亞昕一沐、亞昕一見等住宅案。產品地域上，公司深耕林口，並擴展至桃園青埔、觀音、新竹關埔/竹北等區域；終端客戶主要為自住及置產購屋者、商辦/廠辦使用企業、零售與旅宿營運租戶。公司亦透過昕境廣場、飯店相關資產及商用不動產布局創造非一次性開發收益，但整體仍以建案交屋認列為主要營收來源。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望核心在於既有案量交屋、北台灣重劃區開發，以及商用/旅宿資產帶來的多元收入。公開媒體與法說會摘要顯示，公司規劃 2025 年交屋案量約 180 億元，2026 年預計約有 4 案、合計約 150 億元可交屋；後續 2027 年估約 171 億元、2028 年估約 160 億元可望成為營收來源，惟上述屬公司展望或媒體轉述，實際認列仍取決於完工、交屋、驗收與客戶貸款進度。成長動能包括：一、林口、青埔、竹北等區域人口移入與交通建設帶動住宅需求；二、公司累積土地庫存與推案經驗；三、商辦、廠辦、商場與旅館資產可能降低單純住宅交屋週期波動；四、AI、半導體與科技產業帶動北台灣部分區域就業與居住需求。潛在風險包括：央行選擇性信用管制與銀行房貸額度緊縮造成客戶貸款與交屋遞延；營建成本、缺工與工期延誤；房價高檔下買氣轉弱；建案集中在特定區域導致區域供給壓力；利率與政策變化；以及建設業營收認列集中導致獲利波動。2025 至 2028 的數字應視為公司/媒體法說展望而非保證財測。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 土地所有權人、合建地主、都市更新或重劃區地主 不動產開發最核心上游為土地來源；亞昕透過購地、合建、重劃區開發等方式取得開發基礎，通常非台股掛牌公司。
  • 國原營造股份有限公司 公開資料顯示為亞昕關係企業/營造端資源之一，承接或支援部分建案施工；未查得為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 建築師、營造廠、機電工程、鋼筋水泥與裝修材料供應商 為建案開發所需設計、施工與材料供應鏈；本次未能逐案確認直接供應商名單，故不填具體台股代號。
  • 金融機構與代銷公司 提供建案融資、購屋貸款、預售銷售與市場推廣；具體往來銀行與代銷公司需以各建案合約或年報附註為準。
Downstream
  • 自住及置產購屋者 住宅建案主要終端客戶，營收認列通常於完工交屋後發生。
  • 企業辦公、廠辦與商用不動產使用者 商辦、廠辦與商用不動產之買方或租戶；多為非特定公開客戶。
  • 零售、餐飲、旅宿及商場租戶 昕境廣場、飯店及商業空間相關下游租戶或營運對象；多數非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 房仲、代銷與通路平台 協助預售、成屋銷售、租賃招商與二級市場流通；非公司主要營收認列客戶但影響銷售速度。

Competitors

Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.