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6239

力成 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 力成 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 29Quality 70Growth 74Momentum 92Chips 56

Is 力成 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 70th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.3%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 71th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.2% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 30.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.50
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 元大證券 holds 5,828 lots
  • sellers have 7,726 lots left, ~138 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +31% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大證券 has accumulated 5,828 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 11,962 lots, has sold 80%, 2,423 left, ~6 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -7.30pp, mid holders -22, retail +9.12pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -42,513 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大證券國泰-敦南元大-大雅新光(牛牛牛)亞證券台新
Distributing
摩根大通花旗環球永豐金-匯立中國信託元大-大同港商麥格理
Desks
own scale
群益金鼎新加坡商瑞銀美商高盛華南永昌
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大證券 +5,828
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +3,895
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-大雅 +2,256
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新光 +1,800
    sold 0%· still adding
  • (牛牛牛)亞證券 +1,702
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新 +1,499
    sold 18%· still adding

Distributing

  • 摩根大通 2,423 left
    sold 80%· ~6 sessions to clear
  • 花旗環球 1,123 left
    sold 80%· ~50 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-匯立 2,715 left
    sold 41%· ~50 sessions to clear
  • 中國信託 1,461 left
    sold 28%· paused recently
  • 元大-大同 581 left
    sold 39%· ~138 sessions to clear
  • 港商麥格理 246 left
    sold 69%· paused recently

Desks

  • 群益金鼎 -42,382
    unclassified
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -20,753
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美商高盛 -9,653
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 華南永昌 -8,611
    unclassified
Still selling 7,726 lots ~138 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +10,248 absorbed / -6,011 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -40,265 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 30.23%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

84 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 50.9%, Sample 57, Median +0.43%, Excess +0.05%, Beat mkt rate 42.1%；60-day: Win 47.3%, Sample 55, Median -0.79%, Excess -1.89%, Beat mkt rate 38.2%；120-day: Win 42.3%, Sample 52, Median -2.32%, Excess -5.84%, Beat mkt rate 32.7%

120 days after: historical avg -1.6%

20-day +0.86%
60-day +1.01%
120-day -1.6%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50.9%
47.3%
42.3%
Sample
57
55
52
Median
+0.43%
-0.79%
-2.32%
Excess
+0.05%
-1.89%
-5.84%
Beat mkt rate
42.1%
38.2%
32.7%

Over 52 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 1.6%, lagged the market by 5.84 pts; win rate 42.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 519+38.9% +33.9% 85.4% +24.3%
20-40 526+23.1% +13% 65.2% +6.2%
40-60 525+11% +0.5% 50.7% -8.4%
60-80 480+28.9% +21.3% 81.9% +7.2%
80-100 You are here734+15.2% +11.1% 68.4% -2.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 41.07, at the 99.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+17.5%
Win rate 78.6% Excess +9.5%
374d
+11.8%
Win rate 56.6% Excess +4.8%
511d
Now
+12.6%
Win rate 66.5% Excess +0.5%
941d
60-day momentum down
+4.2%
Win rate 56.8% Excess +0.2%
495d
+6.2%
Win rate 50.7% Excess -3.4%
355d
+27.5%
Win rate 89% Excess +13.7%
228d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 941 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 12.6%, win rate 66.5%, beat the market by 0.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

29 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.17%, win rate 53.6%, beating the market by +0.96 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

69 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.29%, win rate 54.4%, beating the market by +1.35 pts on average.

What does 力成 do? Company profile

半導體業，專業委外封裝測試（OSAT） 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

6239 對應證券為力成科技股份有限公司普通股，英文名 Powertech Technology Inc.，簡稱 PTI，為台灣證券交易所上市公司。公司成立於 1997 年 5 月 15 日，總部位於新竹縣湖口鄉新竹工業區大同路 10 號，主要營運據點在台灣，並有日本營運與新加坡、英屬維京群島控股公司。董事長為蔡篤恭，官網經營團隊揭露執行長為謝永達；Yahoo/公開資訊系資料另列總經理呂肇祥或執行長謝永達，實際職稱以公司官網與最新年報為準。公司於 2003 年 4 月 3 日上櫃，2004 年 11 月 8 日上市。實收資本額為新台幣 7,591,466,340 元，流通在外普通股 759,146,634 股。2025 年年報揭露截至 2026 年 3 月 31 日從業員工 12,669 人；公司簡介則以集團口徑稱全球員工超過 18,000 人。2026 年 3 月 29 日主要股東包括群益台灣精選高息 ETF 基金專戶 5.55%、元大台灣高股息基金專戶 4.78%、美商金士頓科技投資專戶 3.94%、復華台灣科技優息 ETF 專戶 3.40%、國泰人壽 3.25%、新制勞工退休基金 2.84%、超豐電子 2.68%、JP Morgan 託管專戶 1.88%、KTC-SUN 1.81% 等。採權益法主要關係企業包含晶兆成科技、超豐電子、Tera Probe、Powertech Singapore 與力成科技日本合同會社等。

Business

力成是專業半導體後段封裝與測試服務公司，商業模式為替 IDM、記憶體廠、IC 設計公司、晶圓製造與系統/儲存產品客戶提供委外封裝測試與模組加工，強調從晶圓凸塊、晶圓針測、晶圓級封裝、IC 封裝、最終測試、預燒、模組組裝到成品出貨的一站式 Turn-key 服務。2025 年合併營收新台幣 749.2932 億元，年增 2.20%；歸屬母公司稅後淨利 55.36 億元，每股盈餘 7.48 元。依 2025 年年報服務別營收：IC 封裝服務 462.73182 億元、占 61.76%；IC 測試服務 104.54821 億元、占 13.95%；模組加工服務 80.66923 億元、占 10.77%；晶圓級封裝服務 39.26687 億元、占 5.24%；晶圓級測試服務 61.83959 億元、占 8.25%；其他 0.03%。公司官網以彙總口徑列 2025 年封裝 502 億元、占 67%，測試 166.62 億元、占 22%，模組 80.67 億元、占 11%。主要產品/服務包括 TSOP、QFN、MCP/S-MCP、wBGA/FBGA、SD/microSD/USB、SSD、eMMC/eMCP/UFS、DRAM 堆疊、行動記憶體、晶圓測試、Bumping、RDL、WLCSP、PoP/PiP、CIS、Flip Chip、FCBGA、CPO 相關客製封裝、FOPLP、SiP/SiM、PCIe 測試、車用電源模組測試與高容量 SSD。主要終端應用涵蓋記憶體、資料中心、AI/HPC、伺服器、企業級 SSD、5G/RF、車用、監控、醫療、IoT、行動裝置與消費電子。2025 年年報揭露主要銷貨客戶以匿名甲、乙、丙呈現，2025 年分別占營收 21.08%、19.88%、10.04%，其中乙為關係人，顯示客戶集中度偏高但公司未正式揭露名稱。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年：上半年受記憶體客戶庫存調整、關稅與總經不確定性影響，下半年因 AI 應用帶動記憶體需求回升，全年營收小幅成長但獲利受產品組合變動與先進技術投入壓抑。公司 2025 年研發費用約 28.07 億元，占營收 3.74%，重點在銅柱凸塊、FCCSP、Large MCM FCBGA、Chiplet FCBGA、SiP/SiM、HBPoP、Embedded Heat Sink FCCSP、TSV、FOWLP/FOPLP、AiP/AiM、CIS CSP、HBM 與 CPO 相關技術。2026 年：公司年報預期全球半導體與封測產業持續成長，115 年預估封裝約 118 億顆、測試約 78 億顆、晶圓級封裝約 111 萬片、晶圓測試約 139 萬片、SSD+薄型 SSD SiP 約 2.93 億顆；經營方針包含強化記憶體封測龍頭地位、拓展 Logic、Fan-Out、FC_BGA、SSD、WLP、CP、SiP，並深化既有客戶與新市場。2026 年 4 月法說與媒體報導顯示，力成第 1 季營收約 213 億元、年增約 37.6%，毛利率 19.4%，EPS 2.50 元；受 DRAM、NAND、Logic、eSSD 與 AI 相關需求推動，公司預期 2026 年營收與毛利率逐季提升，資本支出上修至約新台幣 500 億元，主因 FOPLP、先進封測廠務與設備擴充。2027 年：FOPLP 被公司視為 AI/HPC 晶片降低成本與大面積封裝的重要路徑；年報稱力成擁有成熟 FOPLP 生產線，現有產能低於客戶需求，竹科五廠與竹科三廠擴產將推進，媒體引述法說指出 FOPLP 良率約 94% 至 95%，2026 下半年進入客戶驗證，目標 2027 年量產/出貨。2027 至 2028 年：公司明確列為未來幾年主攻技術的方向包括 high performance computing AI chips 的 FOPLP、Optical Engine、CPO 與 HBM；媒體引述法說指出 Optical Engine 已接近產品驗證並力拚較早量產，CPO 可能配合客戶技術演進於 2027 年底至 2028 年量產。主要風險包含半導體景氣循環、記憶體價格與庫存波動、客戶集中、先進封裝大額資本支出回收與良率風險、原物料與金線/基板成本上升、人才短缺、晶圓廠與基板廠切入先進封裝造成競爭加劇、全球供應鏈區域化、關稅/貿易限制、地緣政治、匯率、能源與環保成本。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 景碩科技 3189 IC 載板/基板供應商；力成 2025 年年報於主要原料供應狀況列示基板供應商包含景碩。
  • 長華電材 8070 導線架與樹脂等封裝材料供應商；力成年報列示導線架供應商包含長華電材，樹脂供應商亦包含長華電材。
  • 臻鼎-KY 4958 禮鼎半導體為力成年報列示之基板供應商；禮鼎非台股掛牌，母公司臻鼎-KY 為台灣上市 PCB/載板公司，故以關係說明列示。
  • 恆勁科技 力成年報列示 GTS/恆勁為基板供應商；恆勁截至查詢時為台灣興櫃公司，非上市櫃，故 stock_id 設為 null。
  • Shinko Electric Industries 日本供應商；力成年報列示為導線架與基板供應商，非台股上市櫃。
  • SIMMTECH 韓國基板供應商；力成年報列示為基板供應商，非台股上市櫃。
  • Samsung Electro-Mechanics 韓國電子零組件與基板供應商；力成年報列示為基板供應商，非台股上市櫃。
  • 台灣日東電工 黏晶膠 Die attach Film 供應商；台灣未上市櫃。
  • Henkel Korea 黏晶膠供應商；海外公司，非台股上市櫃。
  • Tanaka 金線供應商；日本貴金屬材料廠，非台股上市櫃。
Downstream
  • 主要客戶甲（年報匿名） 2025 年銷貨淨額新台幣 157.91669 億元、占 21.08%，年報未揭露名稱；推測屬大型記憶體/半導體客戶之一，不能直接指定公司。
  • 主要客戶乙（年報匿名，關係人） 2025 年銷貨淨額新台幣 148.96326 億元、占 19.88%，年報列為關係人但未揭露名稱；可能與集團或策略合作客戶相關，不能直接指定公司。
  • 主要客戶丙（年報匿名） 2025 年銷貨淨額新台幣 75.26344 億元、占 10.04%，年報未揭露名稱；反映客戶集中度。
  • Micron Technology 美國 Nasdaq 上市記憶體公司；Micron 官網曾公告與力成建立西安組裝與封裝服務長期策略關係，非台股上市櫃。
  • Kingston Technology 美國未上市記憶體模組/儲存品牌；同時為力成主要股東之一，市場與產業報導長期將其列為力成記憶體/儲存相關客戶。
  • Kioxia 日本記憶體公司；產業報導將其列為力成記憶體封測與儲存相關長期客戶，非台股上市櫃。
  • Western Digital 美國上市儲存設備公司；Nikkei/KrASIA 報導稱力成供應主要記憶體晶片廠與儲存方案供應商包含 Western Digital，非台股上市櫃。
  • 聯發科 2454 台灣上市 IC 設計公司；媒體報導其為力成 FOPLP/先進封裝客戶活動相關對象之一，但是否已有量產營收貢獻需以公司公告確認。
  • AMD 美國上市高效能運算晶片公司；媒體報導其為力成 FOPLP 客戶活動相關對象之一，非台股上市櫃，實際量產與營收貢獻需公司公告確認。
  • Broadcom 美國上市網通/ASIC 公司；媒體報導其為力成 FOPLP 客戶活動相關對象之一，非台股上市櫃，實際量產與營收貢獻需公司公告確認。

Competitors

  • 日月光投控 3711 全球 OSAT 龍頭；力成年報競爭表列日月光為主要台灣封測同業，產品線涵蓋封裝、測試、SiP 與先進封裝。
  • 京元電子 2449 台灣主要 IC 測試廠；力成年報競爭表列京元電，與力成在測試服務及部分高階測試需求競爭。
  • 頎邦科技 6147 台灣封測廠，專長驅動 IC、凸塊與封裝測試；力成年報競爭表列頎邦。
  • 南茂科技 8150 記憶體與驅動 IC 封測同業；力成年報競爭表列南茂。
  • 華東科技 8110 記憶體封測同業；MoneyDJ 產業資料列記憶體專業封裝測試廠包含華東。
  • 福懋科技 8131 IC 封裝測試服務商；MoneyDJ 產業資料列記憶體專業封裝測試廠包含福懋。
  • 矽格 6257 台灣 IC 測試與封裝服務商；與力成部分測試/封裝服務市場重疊。
  • 超豐電子 2441 封測廠且為力成關係企業，力成持股超豐；嚴格而言屬集團關係企業而非純外部競爭者，但在封測市場分類中與同業比較常一併觀察。
Sources（20）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.