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1808

潤隆 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 潤隆 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 69Quality 89Growth 100Momentum 52Chips 70

Is 潤隆 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~87% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 7.1%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 14th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 49th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 3.3% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 87447.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.40
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 兆豐-忠孝 holds 10,121 lots
  • sellers have 1,377 lots left, ~14 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -3% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 兆豐-忠孝 has accumulated 10,121 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 富邦-台北 peaked at 3,845 lots, has sold 67%, 1,260 left, ~5 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.99pp, mid holders -7, retail -0.67pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -5,895 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
兆豐-忠孝(牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐台灣摩根士丹利新光兆豐-中壢臺銀-臺中
Distributing
富邦-台北台新證券元大-大里德芳亞東-板橋聯邦-雙和元大-大里
Desks
own scale
美商高盛港商野村新加坡商瑞銀美林
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 兆豐-忠孝 +10,121
    sold 0%· still adding
  • (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 +2,686
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +1,779
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新光 +1,605
    sold 9%· still adding
  • 兆豐-中壢 +1,277
    sold 1%
  • 臺銀-臺中 +688
    sold 11%

Distributing

  • 富邦-台北 1,260 left
    sold 67%· ~5 sessions to clear
  • 台新證券 119 left
    sold 68%· paused recently
  • 元大-大里德芳 119 left
    sold 54%· paused recently
  • 亞東-板橋 58 left
    sold 67%· paused recently
  • 聯邦-雙和 45 left
    sold 74%· paused recently
  • 元大-大里 120 left
    sold 29%· paused recently

Desks

  • 美商高盛 -2,313
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 港商野村 -1,921
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -1,852
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美林 -1,701
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 1,377 lots ~14 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +5,352 absorbed / -2,736 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -5,550 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 87447.7%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

129 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 58.7%, Sample 109, Median +1.47%, Excess +1.14%, Beat mkt rate 53.2%；60-day: Win 64.5%, Sample 107, Median +5.69%, Excess +3.53%, Beat mkt rate 52.3%；120-day: Win 76%, Sample 104, Median +12.48%, Excess +5.87%, Beat mkt rate 57.7%

120 days after: historical avg +14.69%

20-day +3.01%
60-day +8.78%
120-day +14.69%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.7%
64.5%
76%
Sample
109
107
104
Median
+1.47%
+5.69%
+12.48%
Excess
+1.14%
+3.53%
+5.87%
Beat mkt rate
53.2%
52.3%
57.7%

Over 104 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 14.69%, beat the market by 5.87 pts; win rate 76%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 484-0.9% -5.8% 43% -24.4%
20-40 331+27.9% +26.7% 90.9% +16%
40-60 You are here392+31% +34.4% 80.1% +20.4%
60-80 567+25.1% +25.8% 84% +15.7%
80-100 1031+23.6% +23.3% 88.9% +4.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 12.09, at the 49.4th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+8.3%
Win rate 71.8% Excess -0.4%
404d
Now
+6%
Win rate 62.9% Excess +0.8%
525d
+10.7%
Win rate 72.2% Excess +2.2%
915d
60-day momentum down
+3.1%
Win rate 48.1% Excess -2.8%
324d
+18.9%
Win rate 61.7% Excess -12.7%
196d
+12.4%
Win rate 73.3% Excess +5.5%
561d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 525 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6%, win rate 62.9%, beat the market by 0.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

39 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.06%, win rate 71.8%, beating the market by +4.72 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

63 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.21%, win rate 54.8%, beating the market by -3.69 pts on average.

What does 潤隆 do? Company profile

建材營造業／營建業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

1808 對應證券為潤隆建設股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，股票代碼 1808。公司成立於 1977 年 1 月 10 日，1994 年 10 月 26 日股票上市；總部位於台北市中山區樂群二路 267 號 8 樓。董事長為邱秉澤，總經理兼發言人為林暐鈞；簽證會計師事務所為安侯建業聯合會計師事務所。依 114 年度年報，115 年 4 月 11 日普通股流通在外股數為 893,031,743 股，實收資本額為新台幣 8,930,317,430 元；員工人數 113 年底 358 人、114 年底 315 人、截至 115 年 4 月 11 日 283 人。主要股東截至 115 年 4 月 11 日包括青石板投資 9.85%、興日盛投資 7.22%、潤盈投資 6.57%、廣陽投資 5.82%、萬盛發投資 5.78%、興富發建設 5.25%、豐饒投資 4.98%、精衛投資 4.86%、齊裕營造 4.02%、達麗投資 3.92%。公司 2018 年取得金駿營造 100% 股權；金駿營造為重要子公司，主要承攬建設營造工程。114 年度擬配發現金股利每股 1.5 元；年報揭露 114 年合併營收 64.96 億元、稅後淨利 13.01 億元、EPS 1.36 元，低於 113 年，主要因新完工建案使照取得集中於第三、四季，營收認列遞延。

Business

潤隆主要營業內容為委託營造廠興建國民住宅及商業大樓出租、出售，子公司金駿營造則以承攬建設營造工程為主。114 年度營業比重為營建收入 100%、工程收入未列示，顯示合併營收主要來自房地開發銷售認列。主要產品包括社區型住宅、住商大樓、商辦及相關建築工程；開發流程為土地開發、產品企劃、規劃設計、行銷準備、銷售作業、營造施工、產權登記、交屋、售後服務。公司近年建案分布於基隆、新北、台北、桃園、台中、台南及高雄等都會區，區位選擇以交通便捷、生活機能完善、發展潛力高的地段為主；主要客群為自住、首購及換屋需求者，並以 2 至 3 房、中小坪數、小宅及 2+1 房等產品降低市場波動。114 年度主要銷貨客戶資料顯示無單一客戶占銷貨淨額 10% 以上，銷貨客戶以「其他」100% 呈現，符合住宅建案銷售予分散個人買方的商業模式。公司成本端主要包括土地、營建工程與建材；土地來源包括自行土地開發、仲介、合建、都市更新與參與標售，材料採自行比價、包工包料或聯合發包，主要大宗材料包括鋼筋、鋼板、混凝土及砂石。公司也透過金駿營造導入 BIM、數位工程管理、預鑄工法、鋁模、預組鋼筋柱、機械化施工與低碳施工，以改善缺工、成本與施工品質。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年已是交屋認列轉折年但全年表現受入帳時點影響：114 年度合併營收 64.96 億元、稅後淨利 13.01 億元、EPS 1.36 元，較 113 年下滑，主因新完工建案使照集中於第三、四季導致收入遞延；同年度新北「景安文匯」、台北「信義富境」、台中「VVS1」及「市政愛悦」陸續過戶交屋。依 2025 年法說會，公司列示 2025 年新屋完工個案包括景安文匯、信義富境、VVS1、市政愛悦，合計總銷金額 336.87 億元；線上銷售個案包含信義富境、溫莎堡、VVS1、市政愛悦、當代首馥、潤隆鉑悦、悦讀耶魯等，合計總銷 605.96 億元，截至當時累計已售金額 398.61 億元。2026 年成長動能來自預估推案：基隆德安段 E、德安段 F、台中當代一邸、高雄苓雅成功，合計總銷金額 319.52 億元；年報亦揭露 115 年興建中個案包括桃園溫莎堡、台中當代首馥、當代一邸、台南潤隆鉑悦、悦讀耶魯、安平金城、高雄苓雅成功，預計新推案為當代一邸、安平金城、苓雅成功。依 2025 法說會，公司使照完工金額計畫為 2025 年 336.87 億元、2026 年 124.93 億元、2027 年 154.99 億元、2028 年 183.69 億元、2029 年 199.62 億元，合計 1,000.10 億元；其中 2027 至 2028 年可望由基隆德安、信義富境、VVS1、市政愛悦、當代一邸、安平金城、苓雅成功等案依進度挹注。產業趨勢方面，公司認為自住與長期持有需求為主流，六都及產業發展利多區域仍具支撐，智慧建築、綠建築、低碳建材、建築碳足跡、LCBA 認證、AIoT 與售後服務將成為差異化重點。主要風險包括央行選擇性信用管制、銀行房貸審慎授信、房貸利率偏高、新青安政策變動、買氣觀望、建材及人工成本高檔、缺工、棄土處理新制、土建融成數限制、完工及交屋入帳時點集中造成營收波動，以及房市政策與總體經濟變化。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 金駿營造股份有限公司 潤隆 100% 持股重要子公司，承攬住宅、商辦等建築工程，並與潤隆進行合建及工程發包；未上市櫃。
  • 京城建設股份有限公司 2524 114 年度年報列為 113 年主要供應商之一，進貨金額 22.99889 億元、占 18%，主因購置營建用地；台股上市公司。
  • 臺邦首府建設股份有限公司 114 年度年報列為 113 年主要供應商之一，進貨金額 22.59775 億元、占 18%，主因購置營建用地；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 日商華大成營造工程股份有限公司台灣分公司 114 年度年報列為 114 年主要供應商之一，進貨金額 8.86719 億元、占 10%，為營造工程相關供應商；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 土地地主、土地仲介、合建地主及都更地主 土地為建設業核心原料，潤隆透過土地開發部門、仲介、合建、都市更新、危老重建、公辦都更及捷運聯開等模式取得案源；多為個人或未上市法人。
  • 鋼筋、鋼板、預拌混凝土、水泥、砂石、機電、磁磚、玻璃、五金、電線電纜、衛浴設備供應商 年報揭露為營建與金駿營造工程上游主要材料及設備類別；未逐一揭露特定上市櫃供應商，故 stock_id 設為 null。
Downstream
  • 自住、首購及換屋住宅買方 潤隆住宅建案主要銷售對象；年報顯示無單一銷貨客戶占 10% 以上，客戶高度分散，非上市櫃公司。
  • 商辦及住商產品買方或承租方 潤隆開發住商大樓與商辦產品，終端需求來自企業辦公、店面及投資／自用客戶；未揭露特定上市櫃客戶。
  • 房屋仲介、代銷、廣告行銷、室內裝修、家具、家電、照明、保險等周邊服務業 年報描述營建業下游涵蓋銷售與售後服務體系及周邊產業；未揭露特定上市櫃通路或客戶。
  • 興富發建設股份有限公司 2542 潤隆主要股東之一，持股 5.25%；同屬興富發集團關係網絡。金駿營造主要承攬關係企業開發個案，惟年報未逐案揭露對興富發之銷售或承攬金額。

Competitors

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.