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2317

鴻海 Other Electronics As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 鴻海 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 53Quality 53Growth 80Momentum 81Chips 91

Is 鴻海 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 40th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.9%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 43th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 97th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 10.4% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 39.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.38
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 美商高盛 holds 84,811 lots
  • sellers have 148,699 lots left, ~37 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +19% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 84,811 lots since the start (sold 2%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 119,156 lots, has sold 34%, 78,353 left, ~30 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.01pp, mid holders +14, retail -1.80pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -27,071 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美商高盛港商麥格理美林永豐金-匯立花旗環球香港上海匯豐
Distributing
摩根大通台灣摩根士丹利新加坡商瑞銀凱基元大證券玉山證券
Desks
own scale
國泰證券凱基-台北大和國泰永豐金證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美商高盛 +84,811
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 港商麥格理 +72,805
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 美林 +57,916
    sold 19%
  • 永豐金-匯立 +41,077
    sold 12%
  • 花旗環球 +30,977
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 香港上海匯豐 +30,940
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 摩根大通 78,353 left
    sold 34%· ~30 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 11,744 left
    sold 74%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 16,735 left
    sold 61%· ~8 sessions to clear
  • 凱基 19,776 left
    sold 46%· ~37 sessions to clear
  • 元大證券 21,331 left
    sold 37%· ~21 sessions to clear
  • 玉山證券 416 left
    sold 82%· ~4 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 國泰證券 -33,141
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -20,805
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 大和國泰 -18,646
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 永豐金證券 -18,520
    unclassified
Still selling 148,699 lots ~37 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +38,021 absorbed / -98,124 sold sellers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 39.57%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

99 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 50.7%, Sample 75, Median +0.27%, Excess -1.35%, Beat mkt rate 40%；60-day: Win 38.4%, Sample 73, Median -4.33%, Excess -5.23%, Beat mkt rate 24.7%；120-day: Win 31%, Sample 71, Median -4.89%, Excess -7.16%, Beat mkt rate 22.5%

120 days after: historical avg -4.23%

20-day -0.37%
60-day -3.12%
120-day -4.23%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50.7%
38.4%
31%
Sample
75
73
71
Median
+0.27%
-4.33%
-4.89%
Excess
-1.35%
-5.23%
-7.16%
Beat mkt rate
40%
24.7%
22.5%

Over 71 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 4.23%, lagged the market by 7.16 pts; win rate 31%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 860+25.7% +23% 88.8% +8.3%
20-40 790+10.9% +5.5% 72.5% -1.2%
40-60 521+20.2% +6.4% 65.5% +6.3%
60-80 420+25.2% +7.7% 65.7% +0.3%
80-100 You are here425+2.9% -3.1% 45.9% -14.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 19.32, at the 97.2th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+8.8%
Win rate 67.9% Excess +4.2%
686d
+15.9%
Win rate 58.1% Excess +7.5%
534d
Now
+1%
Win rate 40.5% Excess -13.2%
550d
60-day momentum down
+5.1%
Win rate 72.3% Excess -1.8%
721d
+16.5%
Win rate 56.6% Excess +8.1%
387d
+10.9%
Win rate 45.7% Excess +0.6%
256d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 550 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 1%, win rate 40.5%, lagged the market by 13.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.61%, win rate 54.2%, beating the market by +2.83 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

67 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.63%, win rate 66.2%, beating the market by +3.86 pts on average.

What does 鴻海 do? Company profile

其他電子業；電子製造服務EMS、雲端網路與AI伺服器、消費性電子、電腦終端、零組件與電動車平台 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2317 經臺灣證券交易所公告為鴻海精密工業股份有限公司上市普通股。公司成立於1974年2月20日，1991年6月18日上市，總部位於新北市土城區自由街2號，董事長兼總經理為劉揚偉。公開資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣1,400.34億元、已發行普通股約140.03億股；另Yahoo股市於2026/02/18揭露股本為新台幣1,396.42億元、已發行普通股13,964,222,294股，兩者可能因資料更新時點不同而有差異。鴻海自述為全球第一大電子製造服務EMS廠，EMS市占率超過四成，2025年合併營收新台幣8.1兆元，全球員工季節性高峰約90萬人；2024年報揭露截至2025/03/31員工總數634,077人。主要股東依2024年報截至2025/03/31資料包括郭台銘12.54%、新制勞工退休基金1.77%、LGT Bank AG 1.27%、新加坡政府投資帳戶1.25%、Vanguard Total International Equity Index相關保管帳戶1.22%、Norges Bank投資帳戶1.16%等。

Business

鴻海核心商業模式為從OEM、ODM、IDM升級至IIDM創新式整合設計製造服務，結合關鍵零組件、核心技術、軟硬體整合、工業設計、全球製造與供應鏈管理，為全球品牌客戶及雲端服務客戶提供一站式研發、設計、製造、組裝、測試、物流交付服務。主要產品分為四大類：一、消費性智能產品，主要為智慧手機、穿戴裝置、電視、遊戲機、機上盒、音箱等；二、雲端網路產品，主要為伺服器、AI伺服器、網通設備、路由器、邊緣運算、資料中心與衛星通訊設備；三、電腦終端產品，主要為桌機、筆電、平板、商務機、印表機等；四、元件及其他，包含連接器、機構件、精密光學元件、鏡頭、電子元件、半導體產品、汽車電子零件、模治具、機械設備、物流倉儲、軟體開發、醫療保健及工業互聯網整合方案。2024年產品組合公開報導為消費智能產品46%、雲端網路產品30%、電腦終端18%、元件及其他6%；2025年公司法說新聞稿指出，雲端網路產品在第四季及全年結構中首次超越消費智能產品，成為最大產品類別。主要客戶以國際一線科技品牌、雲端服務商CSP與AI晶片/平台業者為主；公司年報以匿名方式揭露2024年最大單一客戶Customer E占銷售54.03%，最大供應商Vendor L占採購39.28%。市場普遍將Apple、NVIDIA、Amazon、Microsoft、Google等視為重要終端或平台關係方，但除公司公開合作案外，個別客戶占比多未由公司具名確認。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年已公布全年營收達新台幣8.1兆元、年增18%，毛利4,982億元、營業淨利2,592億元、歸屬母公司淨利約1,894億元、EPS 13.61元，均受AI伺服器與雲端網路產品帶動。2026年公司公開表示在全球大型CSP資本支出快速擴張、AI伺服器產能逐步到位下，營運展望為強勁成長；消費智能產品因高單價機種比重高，對記憶體短缺與漲價影響相對有限，能見度提升。2025至2028年主要成長動能包括：一、AI伺服器與AI Factory基礎建設，鴻海自稱為全球最大AI伺服器供應商，與NVIDIA合作GB300 NVL72、Vera Rubin、800 VDC電力架構、液冷CDU與高雄AI資料中心等；二、由伺服器整機組裝延伸至機櫃、電源、散熱、資料中心與數位孿生解決方案，提升垂直整合與單機價值；三、全球區域化製造與BOL模式，因應關稅、地緣政治與客戶在地化需求，在亞洲、美洲、歐洲配置產能；四、電動車CDMS與鴻華先進平台，MODEL T、MODEL C、MODEL B等量產/交付推進，高雄橋頭新廠預計2025年完工，初期年產500輛電巴，2028年目標擴至1,000輛；五、3+3策略，即電動車、數位健康、機器人三大未來產業，以及人工智慧、半導體、新世代通訊三大核心技術。主要風險包括單一大客戶集中度高、AI伺服器產品毛利率受高單價料件稀釋、NVIDIA及CSP資本支出循環波動、記憶體/PCB/電源/散熱等關鍵零組件供需與價格、關稅與地緣政治、匯率、勞動與ESG合規、電動車市場競爭及量產爬坡不確定性。2027至2028年除電巴產能目標等少數具體資訊外，尚未找到公司逐年財測，相關展望屬依公司策略與產業趨勢推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台積電 2330 AI、智慧手機、HPC與車用晶片的核心晶圓代工廠；鴻海AI伺服器及終端產品所用晶片多由客戶或平台方指定，列為產業鏈上游關鍵關聯公司，非公司年報具名供應商。
  • 聯發科 2454 智慧終端、網通、車用與邊緣AI SoC供應鏈關聯公司；是否直接供應鴻海各產品需視客戶BOM，屬產業鏈推估。
  • 台達電 2308 AI伺服器與資料中心電源、散熱及能源管理重要台廠；與鴻海同處AI基礎建設供應鏈，直接供應關係未由年報逐一具名。
  • 光寶科 2301 電源供應器、伺服器電源與電子零組件供應鏈公司；列為AI伺服器電源上游關聯，直接供應關係未完全公開。
  • 奇鋐 3017 AI伺服器散熱模組、風冷與液冷供應鏈關聯公司；列為高功耗AI伺服器散熱上游關聯，直接供應關係需個案確認。
  • 雙鴻 3324 伺服器散熱與液冷相關台廠；列為AI伺服器散熱產業鏈關聯，直接供應關係未由鴻海年報具名。
  • 欣興 3037 高階PCB與ABF載板供應鏈公司，與AI伺服器、GPU及高速運算平台上游相關；直接供應關係未逐一公開。
  • 南電 8046 ABF載板及PCB供應鏈公司，與AI/HPC晶片載板需求相關；直接供應關係未逐一公開。
  • 臻鼎-KY 4958 PCB與軟板供應鏈公司，與消費電子及伺服器產品上游零組件相關；直接供應關係未逐一公開。
  • 國巨 2327 被動元件供應鏈公司；鴻海年報揭露原物料包含電容等，列為台股被動元件上游關聯，直接供應關係未具名確認。
  • NVIDIA 美國NASDAQ上市公司，AI GPU、GB200/GB300、Vera Rubin等平台關鍵供應與合作方；鴻海公開與其在AI伺服器、AI Factory、800 VDC及高雄算力中心合作。
  • Qualcomm 美國NASDAQ上市公司，車用與通訊SoC平台供應商；鴻海年報提及Qualcomm SA522M與C8550平台開發案。
  • NXP Semiconductors 荷蘭/美國上市半導體公司，車用控制器平台供應商；鴻海年報提及NXP S32G ZCU/ZGW原型開發案。
Downstream
  • Apple 美國NASDAQ上市公司，市場普遍認定為鴻海最大消費電子客戶之一；鴻海年報以Customer E匿名揭露最大客戶2024年占銷售54.03%，未具名確認。
  • NVIDIA 美國NASDAQ上市公司，AI伺服器平台合作方與需求來源；鴻海公開展示GB300、Vera Rubin、AI Factory等合作。
  • Amazon 美國NASDAQ上市公司，全球大型CSP與AI資料中心資本支出需求方；具體訂單與占比未由鴻海具名揭露。
  • Microsoft 美國NASDAQ上市公司，全球大型CSP與AI資料中心需求方；具體訂單與占比未由鴻海具名揭露。
  • Alphabet / Google 美國NASDAQ上市公司，全球大型CSP與AI資料中心需求方；具體訂單與占比未由鴻海具名揭露。
  • Meta Platforms 美國NASDAQ上市公司，AI資料中心與伺服器終端需求方；具體訂單與占比未由鴻海具名揭露。
  • 鴻華先進 2258 台灣創新板上市公司，鴻海與裕隆合作之電動車平台公司，承接鴻海智慧電動車CDMS與MIH生態系布局。
  • 裕隆 2201 台股上市公司，與鴻海合作成立鴻華先進，提供整車開發與汽車產業資源，為鴻海EV生態系下游/合作夥伴。
  • 帝寶 6605 台股上市公司，與鴻華先進策略合作並加入MIH聯盟，規劃電動車車燈研發設計，屬EV平台合作供應鏈與生態系成員。

Competitors

  • 廣達 2382 台股上市，伺服器、AI伺服器、筆電與雲端資料中心代工競爭者。
  • 緯創 3231 台股上市，AI伺服器、伺服器與電子代工競爭者。
  • 英業達 2356 台股上市，伺服器、筆電與雲端設備代工競爭者。
  • 仁寶 2324 台股上市，筆電、智慧裝置、伺服器及電子代工競爭者。
  • 和碩 4938 台股上市，消費電子、通訊產品與電腦終端代工競爭者。
  • 華碩 2357 台股上市，部分電腦、主機板、伺服器與終端產品領域存在競合。
  • Flex 美國NASDAQ上市EMS公司，全球電子製造服務競爭者。
  • Jabil 美國NYSE上市EMS公司，全球電子製造服務競爭者。
  • 立訊精密 中國A股上市公司，消費電子組裝、連接器與Apple供應鏈競爭者；非台股掛牌。
  • 比亞迪電子 香港上市公司，手機及電子產品組裝競爭者；非台股掛牌。
Sources（22）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.