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2542

興富發 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 興富發 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 78Quality 86Growth 100Momentum 68Chips 1

Is 興富發 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~88% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 5.0%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 22th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 67th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -17.0% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 2114.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.95
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 群益金鼎 holds 25,310 lots
  • sellers have 1,078 lots left, ~5 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +18% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 群益金鼎 has accumulated 25,310 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 康和 peaked at 9,196 lots, has sold 27%, 6,682 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.64pp, mid holders +0, retail -2.69pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -20,779 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
群益金鼎富邦證券新加坡商瑞銀兆豐-忠孝元大證券國票-安和
Distributing
康和美林第一金-新興台新元大-中和國泰-桃園
Desks
own scale
美商高盛摩根大通台灣摩根士丹利兆豐-中壢
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 群益金鼎 +25,310
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦證券 +23,542
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +10,211
    sold 25%
  • 兆豐-忠孝 +9,593
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +9,529
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 國票-安和 +3,620
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 康和 6,682 left
    sold 27%· paused recently
  • 美林 591 left
    sold 89%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 第一金-新興 172 left
    sold 89%· paused recently
  • 台新 171 left
    sold 79%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 元大-中和 109 left
    sold 83%· ~2 sessions to clear
  • 國泰-桃園 154 left
    sold 74%· ~5 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 美商高盛 -6,451
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 摩根大通 -6,181
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -5,025
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 兆豐-中壢 -4,663
    unclassified
Still selling 1,078 lots ~5 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +58,501 absorbed / -3,590 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -19,600 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

37 historical occurrences (since 2009-07-20)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 55.6%, Sample 36, Median +0.98%, Excess +0.93%, Beat mkt rate 38.9%；60-day: Win 54.3%, Sample 35, Median +1.08%, Excess +2.18%, Beat mkt rate 48.6%；120-day: Win 68.6%, Sample 35, Median +3.13%, Excess +0.98%, Beat mkt rate 54.3%

120 days after: historical avg +6.69%

20-day +2.53%
60-day +5.79%
120-day +6.69%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.6%
54.3%
68.6%
Sample
36
35
35
Median
+0.98%
+1.08%
+3.13%
Excess
+0.93%
+2.18%
+0.98%
Beat mkt rate
38.9%
48.6%
54.3%

Over 35 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.69%, beat the market by 0.98 pts; win rate 68.6%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 2114.2%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

121 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 59.8%, Sample 107, Median +1.17%, Excess +0.53%, Beat mkt rate 49.5%；60-day: Win 73.3%, Sample 105, Median +4.38%, Excess +2.13%, Beat mkt rate 54.3%；120-day: Win 73.5%, Sample 102, Median +6.28%, Excess +3.72%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +10.94%

20-day +2.59%
60-day +6.94%
120-day +10.94%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
59.8%
73.3%
73.5%
Sample
107
105
102
Median
+1.17%
+4.38%
+6.28%
Excess
+0.53%
+2.13%
+3.72%
Beat mkt rate
49.5%
54.3%
50%

Over 102 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.94%, beat the market by 3.72 pts; win rate 73.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 313+24.4% +17.1% 92% +9.3%
20-40 139+2.6% -0.8% 46.8% -3.5%
40-60 475+4% +4.4% 66.1% +1.9%
60-80 You are here639+9.2% +9.4% 82.3% -15.2%
80-100 1468+15.7% +11.6% 86% -3.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 13.98, at the 66.8th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-2.7%
Win rate 36.4% Excess -7.5%
184d
+1.6%
Win rate 63.2% Excess +0.4%
535d
Now
+6.5%
Win rate 70.4% Excess -4%
1316d
60-day momentum down
+3.5%
Win rate 78.1% Excess -3.4%
247d
+8.5%
Win rate 91% Excess +5.2%
155d
+13.1%
Win rate 77.4% Excess +0.6%
717d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1316 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6.5%, win rate 70.4%, lagged the market by 4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

63 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.46%, win rate 64.5%, beating the market by -0.25 pts on average.

What does 興富發 do? Company profile

建材營造業／不動產開發 上市，台灣證券交易所

Overview

2542 對應證券為興富發，TWSE ISIN 清單顯示為上市普通股，掛牌日 1999/05/03，ISIN 為 TW0002542008。公司成立於 1980/01/23，總部位於台北市中山區樂群二路267號10樓，董事長為曹淵博，總經理為范華軍，發言人為廖昭雄。公開資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣217.31億元，已發行普通股約21.73億股；2024年報以114/4/19股東名簿為基準之實際已發行股份總數為2,070,555,751股，後續因盈餘轉增資等因素與2026公開行情網站數字不同。主要股東與內部人關係方面，2024年報揭露前十大股東包含時代贏家投資約7.74%、興日盛投資約6.31%、吳超竑約1.92%、鄭欽天約1.89%、潤盈投資約1.81%、長庚醫療財團法人約1.48%；法人董事潤盈投資之主要股東為鄭欽天、鄭秀慧、鄭喬文、鄭鈞方。員工規模部分，Investing.com 個股檔案顯示員工106人，但未能在已檢索年報段落交叉確認，採保守引用。

Business

興富發主要業務為委託營造廠興建商業大樓、國民住宅大樓供出租及出售，並包含工業廠房、特定專業區、公共建設、新市鎮、新社區、都市更新與一般旅館業等。2024年年報營業比重：建設收入新台幣367.20803億元、占99.44%；營造收入0.6672億元、占0.18%；百貨商場1.40757億元、占0.38%；合計369.2828億元。商品包含住宅大樓之住家、套房、停車位，以及辦公大樓之辦公、店面、停車位、套房。商業模式以取得土地或合建／都更土地、規劃設計、委託營造施工、預售或成屋銷售、交屋後認列收入為核心；收入認列高度受完工與交屋時點影響。公司推案區域涵蓋台北、新北、基隆、桃園、新竹、台中、台南、高雄等主要都會區。2024年認列案源包含內湖興富發T1、青埔站前新銳、文心愛悅、赫里翁城堡、華人匯、高雄CBD、愛情河左岸，以及集團子公司齊裕營造工程收入與潤隆建設部分個案收入。下游客戶以購屋自住與換屋族、投資置產客、企業辦公與店面需求者、飯店與商用不動產使用者為主；公司亦發展飯店資產，與洲際、萬豪、凱悅等國際酒店品牌合作。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年核心展望為交屋高峰、商辦與住宅雙軌布局、都更／合建取地，以及飯店與商用不動產長期持有。公司2025年面臨央行第七波選擇性信用管制、房貸排隊、缺工與部分案量遞延，2025年全年EPS公開新聞揭露為2.10元、低於2024年的3.13元，但董事會擬配發每股現金股利4元，反映管理層對後續交屋現金流具信心。2026年起公司進入密集完工期，公開新聞引述公司法說資料指出2026年完工量約792.25億元、2027年約743.38億元、2028年約749.86億元；2026年前5月累計營收約280.77億元、年增1780.74%，顯示部分大型案進入認列。成長動能包括：一、在手案量與完工認列增加；二、2026年預計推出7大新案、總銷約1,155.9億元，其中多數為商辦；三、北部聚焦精華地段與高端市場，中南部受區域建設、人口紅利與科技產業投資支撐；四、微型商辦、企業總部、小坪數住宅、智慧家居、整體衛浴、BIM與模組化／節能設備導入，有助產品差異化；五、飯店事業包含台南安平雅樂軒、新北金山洲際溫泉酒店、台中七期Andaz、高雄Hyatt Regency等布局，可能提高長期資產收益占比。主要風險包括央行信用管制延續、房貸成數與撥款排隊影響交屋速度、預售買氣降溫、讓利促銷壓縮毛利、土地與營建成本上升、缺工、利率維持高檔、都更合建整合期長、完工入帳集中導致年度獲利波動，以及營建碳排、綠色金融與永續揭露要求提高。2027至2028年的營收與獲利可見度高於一般年度，但實際入帳仍取決於使照取得、完工交屋、貸款核撥與客戶過戶進度。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 土地所有權人、地主、都更及合建案權利人 上游土地來源；公司年報指出土地可透過私有出售、合建、國有非公用土地標售及都市更新程序取得，未逐案揭露交易對手。
  • 金融機構 建案開發融資與購屋貸款來源；實際往來銀行未完整揭露，且包含上市櫃與非上市金融機構。
  • 建築師、建築經理、代書及廣告代銷公司 規劃設計、履約管理、代書過戶與銷售通路協力；多為未上市或個案合作業者，年報未揭露完整名單。
  • 齊裕營造股份有限公司 集團子公司及營造工程收入來源；未查得台股上市櫃代號。
  • 興富發營造股份有限公司 集團營造相關公司；未查得台股上市櫃代號。
  • 中國鋼鐵 2002 鋼材為營建上游重要原料；列為台股上市鋼鐵供應鏈代表，非年報揭露之特定採購對象。
  • 台灣水泥 1101 水泥為營建上游重要原料；列為台股上市水泥供應鏈代表，非年報揭露之特定採購對象。
  • 亞泥 1102 水泥為營建上游重要原料；列為台股上市水泥供應鏈代表，非年報揭露之特定採購對象。
Downstream
  • 購屋大眾 住宅、套房、停車位之最終購買者，包含首購、換屋、自住及置產需求。
  • 企業辦公與商辦使用者 辦公大樓、店面、企業總部與微型商辦需求端；多為未特定揭露之企業客戶。
  • 房屋仲介與銷售通路 個案銷售與流通通路，年報指出仲介業因店頭通路優勢亦切入銷售；未揭露完整合作名單。
  • 洲際酒店集團 IHG 國際酒店品牌合作方；英國上市／海外公司，與興富發於飯店產品合作。
  • 萬豪國際 Marriott 國際酒店品牌合作方；美國上市公司，與興富發於飯店產品合作。
  • 凱悅酒店集團 Hyatt 國際酒店品牌合作方；美國上市公司，與興富發於飯店產品合作。

Competitors

  • 欣陸投控 3703 2024年上市櫃營建同業營收排名第2，業務含營造與工程，與興富發在建材營造產業資金與案量比較上具可比性。
  • 冠德建設 2520 2024年上市櫃營建同業營收排名第3，住宅、商辦與開發案為主要比較對象。
  • 潤弘精密工程 2597 2024年上市櫃營建同業營收排名第4，偏營造工程與預鑄工法，屬營建供應與工程競爭者。
  • 國建 2501 2024年上市櫃營建同業營收排名第5，為大型上市建設公司，住宅與商辦開發具競爭關係。
  • 中工 2515 2024年上市櫃營建同業營收排名第6，含工程承攬與開發業務。
  • 遠雄建設 5522 2024年上市櫃營建同業營收排名第7，為大型住宅與商辦開發商。
  • 皇翔建設 2545 上市建設公司，雙北與都會區推案同業。
  • 華固建設 2548 上市建設公司，台北都會區住宅與商辦推案同業。
  • 長虹建設 5534 上市建設公司，住宅與商辦開發同業。
  • 達麗建設 6177 上市建設公司，住宅開發同業，年報舊資料亦列於同業比較名單。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.