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6279

胡連 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 胡連 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 75Quality 56Growth 73Momentum 39Chips 9

Is 胡連 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 58th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.1%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 16th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 16th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -5.8% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 28.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.44
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 華南永昌-基隆 holds 272 lots
  • sellers have 442 lots left, ~50 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 華南永昌-基隆 has accumulated 272 lots since the start (sold 4%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 1,071 lots, has sold 29%, 758 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -3.17pp, mid holders -5, retail +3.91pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -593 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
華南永昌-基隆玉山-景美國泰-敦南華南永昌-南京華南永昌-頭份大昌-新店
Distributing
美商高盛台中銀-台北元大-樹林富邦-新店凱基-鳳山華南永昌-敦南
Desks
own scale
摩根大通新加坡商瑞銀台灣摩根士丹利富邦證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 華南永昌-基隆 +272
    sold 4%
  • 玉山-景美 +156
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +150
    sold 19%
  • 華南永昌-南京 +135
    sold 11%
  • 華南永昌-頭份 +119
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 大昌-新店 +117
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 758 left
    sold 29%· paused recently
  • 台中銀-台北 245 left
    sold 31%· paused recently
  • 元大-樹林 111 left
    sold 31%· ~50 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-新店 102 left
    sold 27%· ~49 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-鳳山 20 left
    sold 83%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌-敦南 14 left
    sold 84%· ~2 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 摩根大通 -3,556
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -1,033
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -798
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 富邦證券 -728
    unclassified
Still selling 442 lots ~50 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +647 absorbed / -277 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 28.86%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

77 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 58.6%, Sample 70, Median +2.56%, Excess +0.74%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 52.9%, Sample 70, Median +1.62%, Excess +1.61%, Beat mkt rate 44.3%；120-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 70, Median +3.18%, Excess -0.85%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%

120 days after: historical avg +5.2%

20-day +2.2%
60-day +4.91%
120-day +5.2%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.6%
52.9%
57.1%
Sample
70
70
70
Median
+2.56%
+1.62%
+3.18%
Excess
+0.74%
+1.61%
-0.85%
Beat mkt rate
50%
44.3%
42.9%

Over 70 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.2%, lagged the market by 0.85 pts; win rate 57.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here251+6.8% -3.4% 35.5% -29.6%
20-40 572+4.8% +7.5% 52.4% -10%
40-60 542+6.7% +8.4% 66.2% -4.8%
60-80 589+19.8% +19.9% 81.5% +7.9%
80-100 1087+19.4% +15.3% 86.2% +1.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 12.61, at the 15.9th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
-2.8%
Win rate 22.9% Excess -12.5%
227d
+7.8%
Win rate 59.1% Excess +3.5%
455d
+6.2%
Win rate 63.9% Excess -1.5%
1159d
60-day momentum down
+4.8%
Win rate 50.7% Excess -7.6%
536d
+7.2%
Win rate 67.2% Excess +0.1%
461d
+20.4%
Win rate 89.2% Excess +9.3%
323d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 227 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 2.8%, win rate 22.9%, lagged the market by 12.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

28 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.17%, win rate 53.6%, beating the market by +4.18 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

51 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.31%, win rate 45.1%, beating the market by -2.06 pts on average.

What does 胡連 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；汽機車用連接器、端子、保險絲盒與車用電子模組 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

胡連精密股份有限公司成立於1977年，總部位於新北市汐止區福德一路342巷1號，股票代號6279，2003年11月26日上櫃。主要經營汽機車連接器及相關零組件之研發、製造與銷售。董事長為張子雄，總經理為胡盛清。公開資料顯示股本約新台幣11.90億元、已發行普通股約119,015,736股；年報中截至2025年4月28日實際流通在外股數為113,348,320股，關係企業組織圖列示母公司資本額為新台幣1,027,389,770元，兩者差異主要來自可轉債轉換與揭露時點不同。2024年度合併營收為新台幣8,800,219千元，年增約20.00%；2025年全年營收據新聞報導為新台幣98.23億元、年增11.64%，創歷年新高。員工規模依2024年年報，截至2025年第一季為2,776人。主要股東依2025年股東會停止過戶日資料包括胡盛清5.22%、劉春香3.67%、張子雄3.62%、張嘉琪2.40%、胡韶綺2.21%、胡韶銣2.21%、胡韶榕2.21%、李寶惜1.90%、花旗託管挪威中央銀行投資專戶1.80%、張少謙1.77%。全球據點包括台灣總部、中國東莞與南京、越南、印尼、義大利及多個中國聯絡處；法說資料提及約21個銷售據點、6個生產基地及台灣、南京、東莞等研發或實驗室配置。

Business

胡連是專業汽機車連接器廠，早期以金屬沖壓端子起家，2004年切入塑膠連接器，現有產品涵蓋連接器、端子、塑膠件、保險絲盒、橡膠件、壓著模具、線束、PCBA、PCB保險絲盒、高壓連接器、高頻高速連接器、充電槍/座、PDU與智能電器盒等。2024年主要產品營收結構為連接器新台幣7,064,106千元、占80.27%，新能源連接器新台幣1,736,113千元、占19.73%。銷售區域以亞洲為主，2024年亞洲占89.15%、台灣4.94%、美洲3.62%、歐洲2.14%、其他0.15%。商業模式以自有模具設計、沖壓、射出、組裝、檢測與客製化開發為核心，透過直接供應OEM車廠、Tier 1系統廠、線束廠與模組廠，並以共同設計、產品迭代升級、降本方案及完整連接器解決方案提升單車價值。主要客戶與終端應用包括中國自主品牌與國際車廠及Tier 1，官方法說列舉奇瑞、長安、長城、江淮、吉利、比亞迪、福田、豐田、上汽、通用、日產、大眾、小鵬、理想、Douglas Dynamics等；第三方資料指出2024年三大客戶吉利、比亞迪、長安合計約占營收30%，中國市場營收占比約76%至80%。終端應用以汽車、機車、新能源車、智慧車、ADAS、車載資訊娛樂、車身控制、工程車、農用車、醫療設備、資訊通訊與消費性電子為主。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年主要成長動能來自汽車電動化、智慧化與網路化。短期已驗證的資料包括2025年全年營收98.23億元創高，2026年公司管理層看好高壓高頻連接器、PCB保險絲盒、智能絲等新品量產，目標全年營收雙位數成長。產品面，胡連已開發新能源高功率800V連接器、10G車用乙太網連接器、PCB保險絲盒、智能電源管理系統與高頻高速連接器，應用於DC/DC、OBC、PTC、快充、電機控制器、高壓電池組、PDU、ADAS、雷達、攝影機、車載娛樂及車體域控制器。產能與市場面，印尼廠已投產並提升產能，越南廠供應部分海外市場，東莞廠與嘉興廠增加設備與模具，並持續拓展歐洲、東南亞及印度，降低對中國單一市場的依賴。客戶面，2025年下半年新產品與新客戶開始出貨，新聞報導提及歐洲區域控制器投產、交貨給Stellantis，上汽與長安PCB保險盒下半年正式生產，並已出貨模組連接器至法拉利；2026年歐洲轉投資或併購若完成，可能補強高端限速、農用車與歐洲利基市場。2027至2028年展望屬推估：若中國新能源車出口、歐洲認證、東南亞在地化與高壓/高頻/智能模組滲透順利，產品組合可望由低單價傳統連接器往高附加價值系統件提升；但風險包括中國車市競爭與成長放緩、客戶集中、人民幣與美元匯率波動、銅與塑膠原料價格、全球關稅與地緣政治、車廠供應鏈重新洗牌、傳統低壓產品需求被電動車架構轉型稀釋、海外併購整合及品質認證時程不確定。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 華新麗華 1605 台股上市銅材與線纜相關上游代表企業；胡連年報僅揭露主要原料為銅材且來源含台灣、日本、韓國、中國，未揭露實名供應商，故此為產業鏈關聯而非確認直接供應商。
  • 大亞電線電纜 1609 台股上市銅線、電線電纜相關上游代表企業；胡連產品涉及銅材、端子與線束，未確認為直接供應商。
  • 台塑 1301 台股上市塑膠原料上游代表企業；胡連年報揭露塑膠粒為主要原料且來源含台灣、日本、韓國、歐美、中國，未揭露實名供應商。
  • 南亞 1303 台股上市塑膠、電子材料與化工原料上游代表企業；屬塑膠粒及相關材料產業鏈關聯，未確認為直接供應商。
  • 銅材與塑膠粒供應商 年報揭露前十大進貨供應商以代號N、S、O、M、Q、A、B、K、E、W等匿名列示；2024年前十大供應商合計約40.47%，單一最大供應商占7.39%，未揭露公司名稱。
Downstream
  • 比亞迪 中國/香港上市車廠，為胡連重要新能源車客戶與供應鏈對象；新聞報導指出印尼廠預計供應比亞迪PCB保險絲盒。
  • 吉利汽車 香港上市中國自主品牌車廠；第三方資料列為胡連2024年三大客戶之一，法說資料亦列為高頻/高壓產品客戶。
  • 長安汽車 中國上市車廠，法說與新聞資料指出胡連為長安開發PCB保險絲盒並於2025年下半年正式生產。
  • 上汽集團 中國上市車廠，法說資料列為智能電器盒與高頻高速產品平台化客戶，新聞報導提及上汽PCB保險盒試投產。
  • 奇瑞汽車 非台股掛牌車廠；官方法說列為OEM客戶，屬中國自主品牌車廠供應鏈。
  • 長城汽車 香港/中國上市車廠，官方法說列為OEM客戶。
  • 豐田汽車 日本上市車廠，官方法說列為OEM客戶之一。
  • 特斯拉 美國上市電動車廠；法說資料以美國T廠牌描述為中國市場以外高壓連接器重點供應對象，第三方資料亦列為客戶之一。
  • 鴻華先進 2258 台股創新板上市電動車公司；法說摘要指出胡連供應Foxtron車型高頻產品，官方法說亦提及切入鴻華電動車網路化智慧系統。
  • Lear Corporation 美國上市Tier 1汽車零組件廠；胡連與Lear於中國揚州成立合資公司，作為拓展歐美市場與Tier 1合作的重要管道。
  • Magna International 加拿大/美國上市Tier 1汽車零組件廠；法說摘要列為歐洲市場專案與最終驗證客戶之一。
  • Marelli 非台股掛牌汽車零組件廠；法說摘要列為歐洲市場專案客戶之一。
  • Stellantis 歐洲/美國上市車廠；新聞報導稱胡連歐洲區域控制器2025年下半年投產並開始交貨給Stellantis。
  • 法拉利 義大利/美國上市超跑車廠；新聞報導稱胡連已正式出貨模組連接器至法拉利，年出貨量約1萬套。

Competitors

  • TE Connectivity 瑞士/美國上市全球連接器龍頭，年報列為全球連接器前十大企業之一。
  • Amphenol 美國上市全球連接器大廠，年報列為全球連接器前十大企業之一。
  • Aptiv 美國上市車用電子與連接系統廠，年報列為全球連接器前十大企業之一。
  • Molex 美國Koch旗下非台股掛牌連接器大廠，年報列為全球連接器前十大企業之一。
  • 矢崎 Yazaki 日本未上市車用線束與連接器大廠，屬車用線束/連接器主要國際競爭者。
  • 鴻海 2317 台股上市，年報列Foxconn為全球連接器前十大企業之一；產品範圍廣，與胡連在部分連接器及車用電子供應鏈存在間接競合。
  • 信邦 3023 台股上市連接器、線束與電子零組件廠，車用與工業應用皆有布局，屬台灣同業競爭者。
  • 貿聯-KY 3665 台股上市線束與連接線廠，車用、工業與資料中心應用均有布局，與胡連在車用線束/連接相關領域部分重疊。
  • 凡甲 3526 台股上櫃連接器廠，以板對板、線對板等連接器為主，屬台灣連接器同業。
  • 嘉澤 3533 台股上市連接器廠，主要產品與應用偏高速運算與伺服器，但屬台灣連接器產業重要競爭者。
  • 宏致 3605 台股上市連接器廠，產品涵蓋NB、消費性電子及車用等應用，與胡連在部分連接器市場重疊。
  • 良維 6290 台股上市連接線與連接器廠，屬台灣電子零組件同業。
  • 連展投控 3710 台股上市連接器與連接線相關投控公司，屬台灣同業。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.