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3583

辛耘 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 辛耘 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 20Quality 76Growth 36Momentum 93Chips 60

Is 辛耘 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 70th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.8%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 78th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 98th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.7% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.90
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 富邦證券 holds 2,572 lots
  • sellers have 2,016 lots left, ~310 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +158% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 富邦證券 has accumulated 2,572 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 2,684 lots, has sold 67%, 896 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +4.66pp, mid holders +7, retail -9.16pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -233 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
富邦證券美商高盛新加坡商瑞銀群益金鼎台新中國信託
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利摩根大通美林凱基-台北元大證券台新-台北
Desks
own scale
統一國泰證券國票-敦北法人元大-民生三民
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 富邦證券 +2,572
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +2,235
    sold 20%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +1,799
    sold 13%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎 +822
    sold 18%
  • 台新 +618
    sold 1%
  • 中國信託 +543
    sold 16%

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 896 left
    sold 67%· paused recently
  • 摩根大通 1,197 left
    sold 39%· ~190 sessions to clear
  • 美林 524 left
    sold 65%· ~101 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 590 left
    sold 53%· paused recently
  • 元大證券 357 left
    sold 59%· paused recently
  • 台新-台北 154 left
    sold 81%· paused recently

Desks

  • 統一 -602
    unclassified
  • 國泰證券 -372
    unclassified
  • 國票-敦北法人 -307
    unclassified
  • 元大-民生三民 -231
    unclassified
Still selling 2,016 lots ~310 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,727 absorbed / -243 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 5%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

60 historical occurrences (since 2013-05-13)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 59.3%, Sample 59, Median +2.37%, Excess +1.44%, Beat mkt rate 54.2%；60-day: Win 55.9%, Sample 59, Median +3.6%, Excess +5.58%, Beat mkt rate 54.2%；120-day: Win 61.4%, Sample 57, Median +7.8%, Excess +11.66%, Beat mkt rate 57.9%

120 days after: historical avg +19.66%

20-day +2.65%
60-day +10.06%
120-day +19.66%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
59.3%
55.9%
61.4%
Sample
59
59
57
Median
+2.37%
+3.6%
+7.8%
Excess
+1.44%
+5.58%
+11.66%
Beat mkt rate
54.2%
54.2%
57.9%

Over 57 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 19.66%, beat the market by 11.66 pts; win rate 61.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 851+61.3% +22.3% 76.5% +41.8%
20-40 321+30.8% +20.7% 72.6% +23.5%
40-60 276+18.1% +14.4% 70.7% -0.4%
60-80 232+56.8% +28.9% 62.1% +24.6%
80-100 You are here540+17.3% -10.4% 36.9% -4.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 56.07, at the 98.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+36.5%
Win rate 58.8% Excess +31.9%
442d
+7.1%
Win rate 60.5% Excess -1.2%
349d
Now
+13.7%
Win rate 50% Excess +0.4%
552d
60-day momentum down
+15.2%
Win rate 66.1% Excess +7.4%
613d
+16.8%
Win rate 58.1% Excess +0.9%
148d
+24.1%
Win rate 50.4% Excess +5.9%
236d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 552 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 13.7%, win rate 50%, beat the market by 0.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +17.2%, win rate 60%, beating the market by +12.38 pts on average.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

102 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.32%, win rate 60.6%, beating the market by +3.94 pts on average.

What does 辛耘 do? Company profile

半導體業；半導體設備、晶圓再生、設備代理 上市

Overview

3583 對應辛耘企業股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於1979年，總部位於台北市內湖區瑞光路208號11樓，2013年3月12日於台灣公開上市。主要經營半導體、LED、Solar、LCD等製程機台設備代理、研發與製造，晶圓再生技術研發與服務，以及化學分析儀器代理、研發與製造。董事長為謝宏亮，總經理為李宏益；公司登記統一編號30901647。實收資本額公開資料約新台幣8.03億元，普通股約8,034萬股，最新來源間有小幅差異，應以公開資訊觀測站即時資料為準。2024年年報揭露2024年底員工合計962人，平均年齡38.14歲，平均服務年資6.41年。主要股東方面，公司官網揭露2025年底股權比例達5%以上者包括謝宏亮7,822,390股、持股9.74%，謝邱芬青5,974,007股、持股7.44%；2025年7月前十大股東另包括前瞻投資、典範投資、宏倫投資、謝瑋倫、環中投資、謝瑋玲等。2024年合併營收96.88億元、年增40%，稅後淨利9.27億元，EPS 11.54元；2025年合併營收約113.71億元，歸屬母公司業主淨利約11.10億元，EPS約13.82元；2026年第1季營收約31.2億元，EPS 4.14元。

Business

辛耘的商業模式可分為三大塊：一是自製半導體設備，包含批次式與單晶圓濕製程設備、先進封裝高潔淨濕製程設備、暫時性貼合及剝離設備、面板級封裝相關設備、光罩清洗與電鍍相關設備；應用涵蓋半導體前段製程、先進封裝、化合物半導體、MEMS、LED/Mini LED/Micro LED、晶圓薄化、BGBM、FOPLP、FoCoS、PiFO等。二是12吋晶圓再生服務，將半導體製造用測試片與擋控片經分類、清洗、研磨、拋光、潔淨乾燥後恢復至可再使用狀態，用以降低客戶全新測試晶圓與Dummy/Control Wafer成本；公司官網揭露12吋晶圓再生產能為每月22萬片，具銅製程與鋁製程生產線。三是代理設備，代理半導體、光電、LCD、LED、太陽能等產業的量測設備、製程設備、化學分析設備儀器與材料。2024年年報以會計科目揭露營收比重為銷貨收入97.03%、勞務收入2.86%、其他營業收入0.11%；法人新聞則指出2025年前後代理設備仍逾六成，自製設備與再生晶圓約四成，但此為法人估計或訪談整理，非年報正式產品別分部。主要客戶以晶圓代工與先進封裝供應鏈為核心；2024年年報揭露台積電為超過10%銷貨客戶，2024年銷貨20.36億元、占營收21.02%，2025年第1季占比27.28%，交易項目包括機台銷貨、設備零件收入及晶圓再生服務收入。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望核心在AI、高效能運算、先進製程與先進封裝擴產。公司2024年年報已明確指出，客戶導入10/7/5/3奈米先進製程將帶動半導體設備資本支出，並表示自製濕製程設備在半導體前段與後段先進封裝具競爭優勢，TBDB暫時性貼合系統已完成開發並開始出貨，成為重要營收來源之一；12吋晶圓再生則因應先進製程需求，持續投入新製程開發與產能擴充。2025年公司營收突破百億元，2026年第1季EPS創高，顯示訂單與產品組合已進入成長循環。2026年法人與媒體報導指出，辛耘在手訂單約130億元，自製設備產能已滿載，訂單能見度達2027年；成長動能包括CoWoS、WMCM、SoIC等先進封裝擴產、晶圓代工廠訂單、封測廠轉單、記憶體與HBM相關需求。擴產方面，湖口二廠預計2026年下半年或年底完工，台南安定新廠已於2025年12月動土、預計2027年下半年或年底完工，媒體報導稱2028年新產能全面開出後自製設備總產能可望翻倍。晶圓再生方面，官網揭露12吋月產能22萬片，新聞與法說整理提到2026年底及2027年仍有進一步擴充計畫。主要風險包括：客戶集中度偏高，台積電單一客戶占比已逾兩成；設備業接單與認列受客戶資本支出、驗收時程及半導體景氣循環影響；自製設備擴產若進度延誤或良率、交期、供應鏈成本不如預期，將影響營收認列；代理設備面臨原廠供應、當地自有品牌及價格競爭；濕製程與先進封裝設備需持續投入研發以維持技術門檻；匯率、地緣政治、供應鏈彈性與客戶議價亦為風險。2027至2028的高成長情境主要建立在AI/HPC資本支出延續、主要客戶擴產如期、湖口與台南新產能順利開出之假設上，屬中高可信度但仍需逐季追蹤訂單、合約負債、毛利率與驗收節奏。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • K-T 年報揭露為辛耘代理半導體設備之主要進貨供應商之一，2024年進貨18.67億元、占進貨淨額22.64%；名稱以年報縮寫揭露，應為非台股掛牌或未完整揭露之原廠。
  • NOVA 年報揭露為辛耘代理半導體設備之主要進貨供應商之一，2024年進貨11.89億元、占進貨淨額14.42%；可能為海外量測設備供應商，非台股掛牌。
  • PLASMA 年報揭露為辛耘代理半導體設備之主要進貨供應商之一，2023年曾占進貨逾10%，2024年占比6.00%；名稱以年報縮寫揭露，非台股掛牌或未完整揭露。
  • 3M 辛耘官網揭露與國際大廠3M合作開發Pyxis系列暫時性貼合設備與玻璃解離層塗佈設備；3M為美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 國內外機械、零組件、材料及化學品供應商 年報說明自製機台原物料由國內外廠商供應，未揭露完整企業名單；主要涉及濕製程設備零組件、化學品、晶圓再生相關耗材與製造設備。
Downstream
  • 台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司 2330 年報揭露台積電為辛耘主要客戶，2024年銷貨20.36億元、占營收21.02%，2025年第1季占27.28%；交易項目包括機台銷貨、設備零件收入及晶圓再生服務收入。
  • 晶圓代工廠與先進封裝產線 下游應用包含10/7/5/3奈米先進製程、CoWoS、SoIC、WMCM、先進封裝濕製程、晶圓薄化及測試晶圓再生；除台積電外，客戶名稱多未公開揭露。
  • 封測廠、記憶體廠、化合物半導體與LED/Mini LED/Micro LED客戶 辛耘設備可用於封裝測試、化合物半導體、MEMS與LED相關製程；新聞提到封測與記憶體客戶有新斬獲，但未揭露具體公司名稱。
  • 面板級封裝與光電客戶 辛耘自製WSE Panel、Polar Panel、Pyxis Panel等設備應用於FOPLP、FoCoS、PiFO等面板級先進封裝濕製程與解離層塗佈；具體客戶未公開揭露。

Competitors

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.