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4741

泓瀚 Chemicals As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 泓瀚 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 23Quality 45Growth 74Momentum 96Chips 78

Is 泓瀚 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 50th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.1%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 93th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.4% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 30.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.95
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 台新 holds 671 lots
  • sellers have 336 lots left, ~1020 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +219% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台新 has accumulated 671 lots since the start (sold 7%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 718 lots, has sold 72%, 204 left, ~1020 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +3.44pp, mid holders +4, retail -7.22pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -3 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台新群益金鼎-大安凱基國泰證券摩根大通台新證券
Distributing
凱基-台北台灣摩根士丹利國泰-敦南港商野村國票-安和統一
Desks
own scale
安泰新光兆豐-南京合庫-西台中
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台新 +671
    sold 7%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎-大安 +443
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基 +413
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +395
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +380
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 台新證券 +350
    sold 2%

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 204 left
    sold 72%· ~1020 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 296 left
    sold 28%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 44 left
    sold 82%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 71 left
    sold 68%· paused recently
  • 國票-安和 42 left
    sold 79%· paused recently
  • 統一 42 left
    sold 78%· paused recently

Desks

  • 安泰 -385
    unclassified
  • 新光 -376
    unclassified
  • 兆豐-南京 -337
    unclassified
  • 合庫-西台中 -231
    unclassified
Still selling 336 lots ~1020 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +3,288 absorbed / -198 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

8 historical occurrences (since 2020-08-04)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 7, Median +0.73%, Excess +5.08%, Beat mkt rate 71.4%；60-day: Win 16.7%, Sample 6, Median -4.88%, Excess -5.33%, Beat mkt rate 16.7%；120-day: Win 50%, Sample 6, Median -3.68%, Excess -10.17%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%

120 days after: historical avg +1.02%

20-day +6.86%
60-day -2.27%
120-day +1.02%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.1%
16.7%
50%
Sample
7
6
6
Median
+0.73%
-4.88%
-3.68%
Excess
+5.08%
-5.33%
-10.17%
Beat mkt rate
71.4%
16.7%
33.3%

Over 6 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 1.02%, lagged the market by 10.17 pts; win rate 50%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 30.27%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

36 historical occurrences (since 2017-09-26)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 28.6%, Sample 21, Median -1.73%, Excess +3.78%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；60-day: Win 35%, Sample 20, Median -2.24%, Excess +3.38%, Beat mkt rate 30%；120-day: Win 42.1%, Sample 19, Median -0.58%, Excess +2.58%, Beat mkt rate 42.1%

120 days after: historical avg +6.88%

20-day +3.67%
60-day +6.25%
120-day +6.88%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
28.6%
35%
42.1%
Sample
21
20
19
Median
-1.73%
-2.24%
-0.58%
Excess
+3.78%
+3.38%
+2.58%
Beat mkt rate
42.9%
30%
42.1%

Over 19 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.88%, beat the market by 2.58 pts; win rate 42.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 209+36.2% +40.3% 73.7% -1.5%
20-40 514+15.2% +10.1% 64.8% -2.8%
40-60 132+2.9% +6.3% 67.4% -16.8%
60-80 107+0.2% +3% 67.3% -9.2%
80-100 You are here172-2.2% -0.1% 49.4% -16.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 143.4, at the 98.6th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+13.5%
Win rate 78.9% Excess +3.8%
270d
-0.2%
Win rate 46.9% Excess -3.8%
243d
Now
-2.2%
Win rate 9.3% Excess -12.2%
54d
60-day momentum down
-1.8%
Win rate 42.1% Excess -16.8%
285d
+4.3%
Win rate 86.8% Excess -5.9%
76d
+30.2%
Win rate 53% Excess +12.1%
283d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 54 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 2.2%, win rate 9.3%, lagged the market by 12.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

What does 泓瀚 do? Company profile

化學工業；噴墨墨水、特用化學材料 上櫃（櫃買中心）

Overview

4741 對應證券為泓瀚科技股份有限公司，為台股上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、特別股或權證。公司成立於 2004 年 1 月 2 日，總部位於新竹市香山區大湖路 173-2 號，股票於 2017 年 9 月 26 日上櫃。公開資料顯示董事長及總經理皆為呂椬境，發言人為陳昭菁；實收資本額約新台幣 3.48 億元，已發行普通股約 3,481 萬股。公司自述總建築面積約 20,000 平方公尺。113 年報揭露截至 2025 年 4 月 30 日員工約 174 人，主要股東包括霖暘投資有限公司持股 12.42%、岩玉投資股份有限公司 11.70%、呂椬境 6.39%、瀚威投資股份有限公司 4.92%、樊嘉茹 4.65%、家雄企業有限公司 4.57%、五安投資股份有限公司 1.85%、捷飛投資股份有限公司 1.83%。113 年度合併營收 5.90 億元，年減 9.02%，毛利率 34.3%，EPS 1.99 元；研發費用 4,991.9 萬元，約占營收 8%。113 年度股利案為每股現金股利 1.2 元及股票股利 0.6 元；2025 年後續股利、股本變動與股價資訊可能已變動，需以公開資訊觀測站最新公告為準。

Business

泓瀚主要業務為開發、製造及銷售噴繪機專用墨水與周邊耗材，核心產品包含溶劑型墨水、UV 墨水、水性墨水、油性墨水、色漿、耗材、噴繪機及機構件。113 年度產品營收結構為溶劑型墨水 4.2561 億元、占 72.13%；UV 墨水 1.22028 億元、占 20.68%；水性墨水 1,025.8 萬元、占 1.74%；耗材 668.0 萬元、占 1.13%；噴繪機 588.6 萬元、占 1.00%；色漿 442.0 萬元、占 0.75%；機構件 241.5 萬元、占 0.41%；油性墨水 144.4 萬元、占 0.24%；其他 1,133.7 萬元、占 1.92%。2025 年前三季依公司法說及媒體報導，溶劑型墨水仍為主力，UV 墨水占比提高，報導口徑約為溶劑型墨水 64%、水性墨水 1%、UV 墨水 28%。公司商業模式以墨水配方研發、色漿與奈米分散、量產製造、相容性測試及 ODM/自有品牌銷售為主；年報稱其已開發超過 100 種噴繪機相容性墨水，並為國際噴繪機大廠進行 ODM 專用墨水代工。銷售以外銷為主，113 年銷售地區為內銷 10.27%、亞洲 43.45%、美洲 25.79%、歐洲 18.28%、其他 2.21%。主要客戶類型為印刷噴繪機製造商、設備代理商、經銷商與廣告輸出通路，終端應用涵蓋大型海報、戶外廣告、商業宣傳、標籤、包裝、紡織印染、食品包裝、T-shirt、窗簾布料、個人化商品、條碼、防偽、UV 噴墨、高品質商標、建築室內裝潢與公共工程。年報中個別供應商及客戶多以匿名代號揭露，單一供應商進貨占比未超過 12%，單一客戶銷貨占比未超過 15%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年的核心觀察是公司由傳統寬幅廣告噴墨墨水，往高附加價值的工業噴墨、電子材料、生醫噴印與 BIPV 彩色太陽能材料延伸。成長動能包括：一、UV 墨水占比提高，受惠標籤、包裝、少量多樣客製化印刷與數位印刷滲透率提升；二、2025 法說揭露 2026 年日本 ODM 訂單持續增加，若量產穩定，有助改善外銷與代工收入；三、全彩 3D UV 固化噴墨、數位標籤、書籍與包裝印刷應用，可對應電商與客製化包裝需求；四、半導體 CoWoS 先進封裝助焊劑數位噴印製程、精密塗佈墨水、車載顯示器黑色 UV 墨水、抗噴砂玻璃 UV 固化墨水等研發案，若成功導入客戶，將提升產品單價與技術門檻；五、生醫組織切片噴墨染色、癌細胞染色與高耐化標籤墨水，屬早期利基應用；六、高光穿透率彩色太陽能板/BIPV 墨水與設備耗材若在歐洲、日本市場放量，可能成為中長期新應用。風險與挑戰包括：2025 年前三季營收年減、EPS 接近損益兩平，短期營運受關稅不確定、客戶下單保守、匯率波動及成熟溶劑型墨水需求影響；中國低價同業競爭擠壓成熟產品；新產品多處於研發、驗證或初期導入，2026 至 2028 年商業化時程、良率、客戶認證與實際貢獻仍有高度不確定性；公司以外銷為主且美元、人民幣交易比重高，匯率會影響營收與獲利；REACH、RoHS 等環保規範提高合規成本，但也推動環保墨水需求。公司未對外公開 2025 至 2028 財務預測，因此本段展望屬依年報、法說與產業資料整理之定性推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • A 公司（年報匿名供應商） 113 年報揭露為主要原料供應來源之一，供應狀況良好；年報未公開公司全名，推定為溶劑等原料供應商，非可確認台股上市櫃公司。
  • B 公司（年報匿名供應商） 113 年進貨占比 11.86%，114 年第一季進貨占比 11.56%，年報表示因價格及採購策略增加進貨；未公開公司全名，非可確認台股上市櫃公司。
  • C 公司（年報匿名供應商） 年報列為色粉主要供應廠商，供應狀況良好；未公開公司全名，非可確認台股上市櫃公司。
  • Epson、Seiko、Konica、XAAR、Spectra 等噴頭/噴墨技術廠 年報說明壓電式噴頭為寬幅噴繪市場主流，泓瀚墨水需依不同噴頭及機型做相容性設計；多為海外或非台股公司，未確認為直接供應商。
Downstream
  • 甲客戶（年報匿名客戶） 113 年報揭露為主要銷貨客戶，112 年銷貨占比 11.11%、113 年銷貨占比 14.06%；公司未公開全名，推定為設備商、設備代理商或經銷商，非可確認台股上市櫃公司。
  • 乙客戶（年報匿名客戶） 114 年第一季銷貨占比 12.00%；公司未公開全名，推定為設備商、設備代理商或經銷商，非可確認台股上市櫃公司。
  • 印刷噴繪機製造商與廣告輸出經銷商 年報明確說明噴墨墨水下游為噴繪機製造廠及廣告輸出經銷商，產品行銷 80 餘國、超過 300 個客戶；多數客戶名稱未揭露。
  • 日月光投控 3711 2025 法說簡報在 CoWoS/晶片封裝助焊劑噴印應用鏈中列示日月光；屬半導體封裝應用端或潛在下游，不代表已確認為泓瀚直接客戶。
  • 聯華電子 2303 2025 法說簡報在 CoWoS 相關 PCB/封裝應用鏈中列示聯電；屬應用鏈關係或潛在下游，不代表已確認為直接客戶。
  • 臻鼎-KY 4958 2025 法說簡報在 CoWoS AI 相關 PCB Board 應用鏈中列示臻鼎；屬應用端關係，不代表已確認為直接客戶。
  • 欣興 3037 2025 法說簡報在 PCB Board 與 IC carrier board 應用鏈中列示欣興；屬應用端關係，不代表已確認為直接客戶。
  • 華通 2313 2025 法說簡報在 CoWoS AI 相關 PCB Board 應用鏈中列示華通；屬應用端關係，不代表已確認為直接客戶。
  • 南電 8046 2025 法說簡報在 PCB Board 與 IC carrier board 應用鏈中列示南電；屬應用端關係，不代表已確認為直接客戶。
  • 景碩 3189 2025 法說簡報在 IC carrier board 應用鏈中列示景碩；屬應用端關係，不代表已確認為直接客戶。
  • 力成 6239 2025 法說簡報在高頻寬記憶體封裝應用鏈中列示力成；屬應用端關係，不代表已確認為直接客戶。
  • 台積電 2330 2025 法說簡報在封裝與處理器/晶片應用鏈中列示 TSMC；屬終端製程應用鏈，不代表已確認為直接客戶。

Competitors

  • 永光 1711 台股上市化學公司，染料、顏料與特用化學材料同業；屬較廣義染顏料/化學材料競爭對手，非完全同質噴墨墨水公司。
  • 國化 1713 台股上市化學公司，StockFeel 將其列為泓瀚染料及顏料同業競爭對手；業務重疊程度需再依產品線細查。
  • 永記 1726 台股上市塗料公司，屬油墨、塗料、化學材料相關廣義同業。
  • 福盈科 1787 台股上櫃特用化學/紡織化學相關公司，屬廣義染顏料與化學材料同業。
  • 中美實 4702 台股上櫃化學公司，StockFeel 列為染料及顏料同業競爭對手；與泓瀚之直接產品競爭需視細項應用。
  • 大恭 4706 台股上櫃化學公司，油墨、樹脂與相關化學材料領域具一定相近性，屬廣義同業。
  • 大同精化 台股上櫃化學材料公司，StockFeel 列為染料及顏料同業競爭對手；業務重疊程度需再查證。
  • 怡凌 台股興櫃/公開市場公司，StockFeel 列為同業；需以最新市場別確認是否仍為台股掛牌。
  • DIC / Sun Chemical 日本上市集團及其油墨子公司，全球油墨、顏料與印刷材料大廠，屬國際競爭者，非台股掛牌。
  • Sakata INX 日本上市油墨與印刷材料公司，屬國際油墨競爭者，非台股掛牌。
  • Toyo Ink / artience 日本上市油墨、塗料與功能材料公司，屬國際競爭者，非台股掛牌。
  • 富士軟片 Fujifilm 日本上市集團，在噴墨、印刷與功能材料領域具競爭關係，非台股掛牌。
Sources（11）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.