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2316

楠梓電 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 楠梓電 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 54Quality 50Growth 80Momentum 93Chips 67

Is 楠梓電 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 17th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.9%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 14th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 47th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.8% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 39.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.82
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 美商高盛 holds 10,059 lots
  • sellers have 1,208 lots left, ~380 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +89% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 10,059 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 1,973 lots, has sold 58%, 829 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +3.05pp, mid holders +3, retail -3.92pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -5,135 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美商高盛花旗環球元大證券永豐金證券永豐金-匯立群益金鼎-館前
Distributing
摩根大通富邦證券港商野村新光國票-敦北法人台新證券
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利群益金鼎康和-永和凱基-台北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美商高盛 +10,059
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +3,148
    sold 0%
  • 元大證券 +1,680
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金證券 +396
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-匯立 +320
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎-館前 +225
    sold 4%

Distributing

  • 摩根大通 829 left
    sold 58%· paused recently
  • 富邦證券 236 left
    sold 85%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 622 left
    sold 45%· paused recently
  • 新光 76 left
    sold 90%· ~380 sessions to clear
  • 國票-敦北法人 186 left
    sold 72%· paused recently
  • 台新證券 61 left
    sold 90%· paused recently

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -2,176
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 群益金鼎 -1,860
    unclassified
  • 康和-永和 -1,569
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -1,439
    day-trade · selling pressure
Still selling 1,208 lots ~380 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,940 absorbed / -845 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -3,562 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

25 historical occurrences (since 2009-08-03)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 58.3%, Sample 24, Median +2.96%, Excess +5.52%, Beat mkt rate 58.3%；60-day: Win 52.2%, Sample 23, Median +3.57%, Excess +6.45%, Beat mkt rate 56.5%；120-day: Win 69.6%, Sample 23, Median +19.07%, Excess +12.7%, Beat mkt rate 56.5%

120 days after: historical avg +20.38%

20-day +5.97%
60-day +8.75%
120-day +20.38%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.3%
52.2%
69.6%
Sample
24
23
23
Median
+2.96%
+3.57%
+19.07%
Excess
+5.52%
+6.45%
+12.7%
Beat mkt rate
58.3%
56.5%
56.5%

Over 23 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 20.38%, beat the market by 12.7 pts; win rate 69.6%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 39.07%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

53 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 55.8%, Sample 43, Median +0.72%, Excess +0.91%, Beat mkt rate 39.5%；60-day: Win 52.4%, Sample 42, Median +2.23%, Excess +3.97%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 55%, Sample 40, Median +1.93%, Excess +9.71%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +15.89%

20-day +1.9%
60-day +8.24%
120-day +15.89%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.8%
52.4%
55%
Sample
43
42
40
Median
+0.72%
+2.23%
+1.93%
Excess
+0.91%
+3.97%
+9.71%
Beat mkt rate
39.5%
50%
50%

Over 40 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 15.89%, beat the market by 9.71 pts; win rate 55%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 737+33.4% +21.9% 63.5% +7.2%
20-40 569+22.8% +2.7% 53.6% +2.3%
40-60 You are here498+19.6% +9% 66.5% +8.7%
60-80 337+57.9% +72.7% 81.6% +45.2%
80-100 615+29.6% +26.3% 68.5% +15.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 12.11, at the 47.1th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+9.6%
Win rate 57.9% Excess +2.3%
515d
Now
+11.1%
Win rate 47.7% Excess +0.9%
564d
+14.7%
Win rate 57% Excess +8.2%
498d
60-day momentum down
+24.7%
Win rate 66.4% Excess +13.1%
580d
+23.2%
Win rate 65.6% Excess +12.6%
363d
+9.7%
Win rate 47.8% Excess +1.5%
356d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 564 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 11.1%, win rate 47.7%, beat the market by 0.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

68 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.03%, win rate 53.7%, beating the market by +4.15 pts on average.

What does 楠梓電 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；印刷電路板（PCB）製造與印刷電路板組裝（PCBA/EMS） 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2316 對應證券為楠梓電子股份有限公司普通股，市場別為上市。公司成立於 1978 年 5 月 2 日，總部與主要廠區位於高雄市楠梓區開發路 37 號等高雄加工出口區相關地址，股票於 1991 年 2 月 5 日上市。董事長為徐漢忠，總經理為陳志康，發言人為呂淑芬。實收資本額為新台幣 1,827,405,360 元，流通在外普通股 182,740,536 股，無特別股。2025 年度員工數 1,424 人，截至 2026 年 4 月 30 日為 1,443 人。2026 年 4 月 14 日前十大股東包括：節能互利股份有限公司代表人呂淑芬 13.04%、港中龍投資股份有限公司代表人徐漢忠 5.13%、群益金鼎受託保管六福證券投資專戶 4.93%、匯豐銀行託管比特銀行投資專戶 4.90%、匯豐銀行託管摩根士丹利國際有限公司專戶 3.60%、渣打託管列支敦士登銀行 3.46%、群益金鼎託管群益香港託管有限公司投資專戶 3.38%、殷贊城 2.43%、花旗託管元大證券客戶投資專戶 1.92%、匯豐銀行託管高盛國際公司投資專戶 1.30%。2025 年合併營收新台幣 37.40116 億元，營業淨損 4.93477 億元，但因處分轉投資股份等業外收入，稅後淨利約 24.27 億元、每股盈餘 13.38 元；2025 年擬配發每股現金股利 2.0 元。

Business

公司主要業務為各種印刷電路板之製造、加工、組裝及銷售。2025 年產品營收結構為：印刷電路板新台幣 28.82848 億元，占 77.08%；印刷電路板組裝新台幣 8.57106 億元，占 22.92%；商品及其他占比接近 0%。PCB 產品包括雙面板、多層板、增層板、模組板、嵌入式被動元件板，應用於網路通訊、消費性電子、汽車電子、工業與醫療電子、電腦及週邊產品。PCBA 業務從事光電、通訊、電腦、醫療、工控、汽車等產品的置件與整機組裝，屬電子製造服務的一環。2025 年銷售地區為台灣 20.75%、亞洲 32.21%、北美洲 33.73%、歐洲 13.05%、其他地區 0.26%，顯示外銷比重高。2025 年有一名匿名客戶甲占全年銷貨 15%，另一名匿名客戶乙占 7%；公司未在年報揭露客戶真實名稱。商業模式以接單製造與客製化製程服務為主，強調從產品開發、試產到量產交貨的快速反應，並透過高階 PCB、AI 伺服器厚板、高層數高頻高速板、PCBA 組裝提升產品組合。公司另持有境外與投資公司架構，業外損益與處分轉投資股份對近年獲利影響明顯。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年公司受 AI 伺服器與高速運算需求帶動，PCB 本業營收較 2024 年成長，產品組合朝 AI 相關、高階厚板、高層數、高頻高速與 HDI 方向移動；但全年本業仍為營業虧損，獲利主要受業外處分轉投資股份利益支撐。2026 年公司在年報中明確表示將持續提高 AI 及高效能運算相關應用市場占比、加強通訊市場客戶合作、拓展利基與地緣政治市場訂單，並增加資本支出，期望 2026 年營收突破過往並轉虧為盈。中期至 2028 年的主要成長動能包括：AI 資料中心與邊緣 AI 推動 18 層以上高層板、高階 HDI、高頻高速材料應用；低軌衛星、車用電子、工業自動化、人形機器人、無人車自駕系統等新應用帶動高附加價值 PCB 與 PCBA 需求；台灣 PCB 供應鏈因客戶去風險與區域化生產需求而增加東南亞或非中國供應鏈機會。公司已開發成功 AI 伺服器厚板、人形機器人板，未來計畫開發高層數高頻高速傳輸電路板、細線路加任意層連接之高密度板、無人車自駕系統相關板。主要風險為高階 CCL、玻纖布、銅箔、鑽針等材料供應吃緊與漲價，水電與人力供需失衡，價格競爭，外銷匯率波動，地緣政治與貿易衝突，消費性電子需求復甦不如預期，以及本業若未能順利轉盈，獲利仍可能高度依賴業外投資處分。2026 年 6 月外媒與台灣媒體報導外資股東關注公司淨資產折價與股東價值議題，可能使資本配置、處分投資、治理改善或私有化議題成為股價與策略變數；此屬市場事件，後續需以公司公告確認。

Supply Chain

Upstream
Downstream

Competitors

Sources（8）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.