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3711

日月光投控 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal

Revenue ≥20%

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 日月光投控 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 日月光投控 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 62th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.9%.
Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 78th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.
Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -1.8% of volume (net sell).
Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 28.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.49

BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

Distribution to retail — bearish
摩根大通 holds 28,971 lots
sellers have 24,464 lots left, ~242 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +99% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 28,971 lots since the start (sold 10%), now trimming.
Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 20,003 lots, has sold 30%, 14,095 left, paused recently.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.92pp, mid holders +91, retail +1.89pp — drifting down to retail.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -46,708 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

摩根大通元大證券香港上海匯豐港商野村永豐金證券國泰-敦南

Distributing

台灣摩根士丹利富邦證券新加坡商瑞銀兆豐證券統一統一-城中

Desks

own scale

永豐金-匯立凱基-台北花旗環球港商麥格理

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

摩根大通 +28,971

sold 10%
元大證券 +18,226

sold 1%· still adding
香港上海匯豐 +11,647

sold 0%· still adding
港商野村 +8,698

sold 17%
永豐金證券 +8,186

sold 10%
國泰-敦南 +3,470

sold 4%· still adding

Distributing

台灣摩根士丹利 14,095 left

sold 30%· paused recently
富邦證券 8,881 left

sold 45%· ~23 sessions to clear
新加坡商瑞銀 8,388 left

sold 37%· ~242 sessions to clear
兆豐證券 3,503 left

sold 70%· paused recently
統一 6,225 left

sold 41%· ~24 sessions to clear
統一-城中 127 left

sold 85%· ~9 sessions to clear

Desks

永豐金-匯立 -37,473

unclassified
凱基-台北 -25,542

day-trade · selling pressure
花旗環球 -16,687

hedge desk · will cover
港商麥格理 -13,711

hedge desk · will cover

Still selling 24,464 lots ~242 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +12,764 absorbed / -7,256 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -21,065 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 28.56%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

19 historical occurrences (since 2020-04-10)

120 days after: historical avg +14.4%

20-day +2.5%

60-day +9.01%

120-day +14.4%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

50%

66.7%

64.7%

Sample

Median

+4.59%

+13.68%

+21.84%

Excess

+0.74%

+2.73%

+5.02%

Beat mkt rate

61.1%

76.5%

Over 17 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 14.4%, beat the market by 5.02 pts; win rate 64.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 +38.9%

20-40 +49.4%

40-60 Insufficient data

60-80 +137.6%

80-100 +29.1% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	207	+38.9%	+42.3%	100%	+22%
20-40	144	+49.4%	+50.8%	100%	+13.9%
40-60	27	Insufficient data
60-80	130	+137.6%	+36.2%	100%	+75.4%
80-100 You are here	262	+29.1%	+12%	70.6%	+10.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 55.25, at the 99.3th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

+17.6%

Win rate 95% Excess +8.5%

200d

+30.6%

Win rate 100% Excess +6.4%

69d

Now

+41.3%

Win rate 64.9% Excess +22%

356d

60-day momentum down

+13.8%

Win rate 74.2% Excess +12.8%

120d

Insufficient data
(20d)

+26.8%

Win rate 76% Excess +10.6%

125d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 356 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 41.3%, win rate 64.9%, beat the market by 22%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.79%, win rate 64.7%, beating the market by +1.55 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

36 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.01%, win rate 63.9%, beating the market by +3.41 pts on average.

What does 日月光投控 do? Company profile

半導體業；全球委外半導體封裝測試（OSAT）與電子製造服務（EMS）台灣證券交易所上市（TWSE）

Overview

3711 對應日月光投資控股股份有限公司，為普通股，台灣證交所股票代號 3711，紐約證交所 ADR 代號 ASX，ISIN 為 TW0003711008。公司於 2018/04/30 由日月光半導體與矽品精密以共同轉換股份方式成立並同日掛牌上市，總部位於高雄市楠梓區經三路 26 號。董事長為張虔生，副董事長兼總經理為張洪本，營運長兼發言人為吳田玉。依 2026Q1 財報，期末已發行股數為 4,460,833,082 股；依公開基本資料，資本額約新台幣 446.08 億元。2026/03/31 員工總數 107,950 人，2025/12/31 為 105,947 人。主要股東方面，公開董監持股資料顯示董事長法人香港商微電子國際公司持股約 684,328 張、約 15.34%，並由張虔生、張洪本、吳田玉、陳昌益、唐瑞文等擔任法人代表；Goodinfo 股東結構資料顯示 2025 年僑外投資合計持股約 65.38%、本國法人約 20.57%、本國個人約 11.39%。日月光投控為控股公司，主要營運子公司包括日月光半導體、矽品精密與環旭電子（USI；上海證券交易所 601231，非台股）。

Business

日月光投控是全球主要委外封裝測試與 EMS 服務商，商業模式為替 IDM、Fabless、晶圓代工與系統品牌客戶提供晶片封裝、晶圓針測、成品測試、基板/互連材料、SiP 與電子產品設計製造等一站式服務。官方說明其半導體製造服務涵蓋前段工程測試、晶圓針測、封裝、成品測試、材料與透過環旭電子提供 EMS。主要封裝技術包括覆晶封裝、打線封裝、晶圓級封裝、系統級封裝，近年重點為先進封裝與測試平台 LEAP（包括 bumping、flip chip、WLP、SiP、先進測試等），並切入 CoWoS 全製程、CPO、面板級封裝等。2025 全年合併營收新台幣 645,388 百萬元，年增 8.4%；營收結構約為封裝 48%、測試 11%、EMS 40%、其他 1%。以表列金額看，2025 年封裝收入新台幣 308,343 百萬元、測試 71,900 百萬元、EMS 257,193 百萬元、其他 7,952 百萬元。2026Q1 營收新台幣 173,662 百萬元，年增 17.2%、季減 2.4%；結構約為封裝 51%、測試 12%、EMS 36%、其他 1%；ATM（封裝測試與材料）營收新台幣 112,434 百萬元、年增 29.7%、季增 2.5%，EMS 營收新台幣 61,875 百萬元、年減 0.7%、季減 10.3%。客戶集中度方面，公司未揭露客戶名稱，但 2026Q1 ATM 前五大客戶占 ATM 營收約 43%、前十大占 58%，其中一名客戶占比逾 10%；IDM 客戶占 ATM 營收 38%。EMS 前五大客戶占 EMS 營收約 64%、前十大占 71%，其中一名客戶占比逾 10%。終端應用涵蓋 AI/HPC、資料中心、通訊、智慧手機、電腦與儲存、消費電子、工業、醫療與車用電子。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 已展現明顯復甦與結構升級：全年營收新台幣 645,388 百萬元、歸母淨利 40,658 百萬元，基本 EPS 9.37 元；毛利率由 2024 年 16.3% 升至 2025 年 17.7%，營益率由 6.6% 升至 7.9%。成長主軸來自 AI/HPC 需求帶動先進封裝與測試，2025 年 LEAP 營收約 16 億美元，較 2024 年約 6 億美元顯著成長。2026 年展望更偏正向：2026Q1 公司營收年增 17.2%，毛利率 20.1%、營益率 10.1%，ATM 毛利率 26.0%、營益率 14.1%；公司 2026Q1 法說後將 2026 年 LEAP 營收指引由約 32 億美元上修至超過 35 億美元，且約 75% 來自封裝、25% 來自測試。公司 2026Q1 設備資本支出已達 10.03 億美元，其中封裝 6.36 億美元、測試 3.26 億美元，顯示資本開支集中於 LEAP 與高階測試。2026Q2 公司給予合併營收季增 7% 至 9%、毛利率季增 20 至 100 個基點、營益率季增 50 至 120 個基點的指引；ATM 營收季增 9% 至 11%、ATM 毛利率 26% 至 27%，EMS 營收至少年增 10%。2027 至 2028 的中長期動能主要來自 AI 加速器、HPC、先進製程晶片封裝複雜度上升、CoWoS/SoIC 供應鏈外溢、SiP/異質整合、CPO 與面板級封裝等；測試需求也因晶片尺寸、HBM/Chiplet 架構與可靠度要求提高而放大。主要風險包括：半導體景氣循環、AI 資本支出若放緩導致先進封測稼動率下降、LEAP 擴產折舊與資本密集度上升壓抑自由現金流、先進封裝產能建置與良率爬坡風險、封測同業與中國 OSAT 競爭、客戶集中度、匯率波動、原物料/載板/電力成本、地緣政治與美中科技管制。2027 至 2028 的數字預測多屬公司法說展望與市場推估，非公司已審計財測。

Supply Chain

Upstream

台積電 2330 晶圓代工與先進封裝生態系核心廠商；日月光承接前段晶圓製造後的封裝、測試、CoWoS/SoIC 相關外溢與協作商機，並與台積電供應鏈共同服務 AI/HPC 客戶。
聯電 2303 成熟製程晶圓代工廠；其晶圓代工客戶的產品可能進入日月光封裝測試流程，屬半導體前段製造供應鏈關係。
欣興電子 3037 IC 載板/ABF 載板供應鏈廠商；市場報導將其列為 CoWoS、SoIC 與先進封裝相關台資供應鏈，載板為封裝關鍵材料。
景碩科技 3189 IC 載板供應鏈廠商；市場報導將其列為先進封裝相關台資供應鏈，提供封裝基板相關材料。
南亞電路板 8046 IC 載板與印刷電路板供應商；封裝載板為 OSAT 上游關鍵材料，實際供應關係需以公司揭露為準。
旺矽科技 6223 探針卡、測試介面與測試治具供應鏈；市場報導列為 CoWoS/SoIC 測試材料受惠廠。
穎崴科技 6515 半導體測試座、測試介面供應商；高階測試需求提升使其與 OSAT 測試產能擴張相關。
精測科技 6510 探針卡與測試介面供應商；市場報導列為先進封裝測試材料供應鏈。
Advantest 日本上市半導體測試設備供應商；日月光測試產能擴張需採購高階測試機台，實際採購金額未逐項揭露。
Teradyne 美國上市半導體測試設備供應商；高階晶片成品測試與晶圓測試擴產所需設備來源之一，實際供應關係需以公司揭露為準。

Downstream

聯發科 2454 台股 IC 設計公司；市場報導指出日月光/京元電承接聯發科等晶片客戶委外封測訂單，日月光未在財報逐名揭露客戶。
NVIDIA 美國上市 AI GPU 與加速器公司；市場報導將其列為先進封測與測試需求來源之一，日月光未逐名揭露客戶，故列為市場推估關係。
AMD 美國上市 CPU/GPU/AI 加速器公司；AI/HPC 晶片與先進封裝測試需求帶動 OSAT 供應鏈，日月光與 AMD 亦有公開技術/IT 採用案例，但客戶營收占比未揭露。
Qualcomm 美國上市通訊晶片與行動 SoC 公司；市場報導常列為台灣封測供應鏈客戶之一，實際占比未揭露。
Apple 美國上市消費電子與 SoC 品牌；屬先進製程與 SiP/封裝測試需求的重要終端品牌之一，日月光未逐名揭露客戶。
Broadcom 美國上市 AI ASIC、網通與半導體公司；AI ASIC 與高速網通晶片帶動先進封裝測試需求，實際委託關係需以公司揭露為準。
主要 IDM 客戶群日月光 2026Q1 揭露 IDM 客戶占 ATM 營收 38%，但未逐名揭露；包含國際整合元件製造商與自有晶片品牌客戶。
環旭電子客戶群透過子公司環旭電子提供 EMS，服務通訊、電腦與儲存、消費電子、工業、醫療與車用電子品牌客戶；環旭電子為上海上市公司 601231，非台股。

Competitors

Amkor Technology 美國上市 OSAT 大廠，是日月光在封裝測試與先進封裝領域的全球主要競爭者。
長電科技（JCET）中國上海上市 OSAT 大廠，非台股；在封裝測試、先進封裝與中國本土客戶市場與日月光競爭。
通富微電中國深圳上市 OSAT 廠，非台股；在 CPU/GPU、車用與通訊晶片封測市場競爭。
力成科技 6239 台股上市封測廠，強項包括記憶體、邏輯與先進封裝相關服務，是台灣封測同業。
京元電子 2449 台股上市專業測試大廠，受惠 AI/GPU/ASIC 測試需求，與日月光測試業務存在競合。
矽格 6257 台股上市測試與封裝廠，提供晶圓測試、成品測試與封裝服務。
南茂科技 8150 台股上市封測廠，主要在記憶體、驅動 IC 與混合訊號封測市場競爭。
菱生精密 2369 台股上市封裝測試廠，規模較日月光小，屬台灣封測同業。
頎邦科技 6147 台股上市封測廠，主攻驅動 IC、LCD/OLED 相關封測，與日月光部分封測市場重疊。
超豐電子 2441 台股上市封測廠，提供 IC 封裝與測試服務，屬台灣 OSAT 同業。

Sources（17）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.